User:Teiresias84/Drafts/Victorian legislative election, 2002 rewrite

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2002 Victorian state election major party leaders
Liberal		Labor

Robert Doyle Opposition Leader		Steve Bracks Premier of Victoria
Age	49	Age	48
Parliament	10 years	Parliament	8 years
Leader since	2002	Leader since	1999
District	Malvern	District	Williamstown

Legislative elections for the Victorian Legislative Assembly and for half the seats in the Victorian Legislative Council were held on Saturday November 30, 2002. The incumbent Labor Government of Premier Steve Bracks was returned with a large majority in the Legislative Assembly winning 62 of the 88 seats. Labor also won a majority of seats in the Legislative Council for the first time in its history.

The main opposition party, the Liberals led by Robert Doyle were reduced to just 17 seats, their worst result since 1952. While the Peter Ryan led Nationals (who after breaking off their Coalition with the Liberals renamed themselves the 'VicNats') retained the 7 seats they held from the 1999 election.

Labor was assisted by a strong economy and by the popularity of Steve Bracks, while the Liberal Party was badly divided between the Kroger and the Kennett factions. The Liberal campaign was also devastated by the revelation that the Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean was ineligible to vote and therefore was not able to stand as a candidate.

This was the last Victorian election were the Legislative Council was elected using Instant Runoff Voting in single-member districts (while each province has two members, they were elected at alternate elections). From 2006 onwards the Legislative Council will be elected from 8 multi-member electorates using proportional representation, with all seats in the Council being up for election.

1 The Lead Up
2 Redistrubtion
3 The Campaign
4 Opinion Polls
5 Analysis
6 Results
- 6.1 Maps
- 6.2 Electoral Pendulum
7 See also
8 References

[edit] The Lead Up

[edit] Redistrubtion

Prior to the election, a redistrubtion was undertaken by the Electoral Bounderies Commission.

In order to maintain a minority government, the Labor party needed a uniform swing of 0.5%, and a swing of 1.5% to gain a majority government.

The pendulum, revised to show the effects of the redistrubtion, is shown below.

LIBERAL-NATIONAL SEATS (46)

Seat	Party	Margin
Marginal
Macedon	LIB	0.4%
Narracan	LIB	0.5%
Geelong	LIB	0.5%
Yan Yean	LIB	0.7%
Narre Warren South	LIB	1.5%
Bellarine	LIB	1.5%
Bentleigh	LIB	2.0%
Monbulk	LIB	2.5%
Mordialloc	LIB	2.6%
Swan Hill	NAT	*
Frankston	LIB	3.3%
Eltham	LIB	3.8%
Fairly safe
Shepperaton	NAT	*
South-West Coast	LIB	4.7%
South Barwon	LIB	4.7%
Prahran	LIB	4.8%
Narre Warren North	LIB	5.2%
Nepean	LIB	6.3%
Forest Hill	LIB	6.4%
Bayswater	LIB	6.4%
Burwood	LIB	6.8%
Safe
Gembrook	LIB	7.0%
Hastings	LIB	7.3%
Benalla	NAT	7.4%
Ferntree Gully	LIB	7.6%
Benambra	LIB	7.6%
Kilsyth	LIB	8.0%
Box Hill	LIB	8.0%
Gippsland South	NAT	8.1%
Caulfield	LIB	8.3%
Mount Waverley	LIB	9.1%
Mornington	LIB	11.9%
Sandringham	LIB	12.2%
Evelyn	LIB	12.4%
Doncaster	LIB	12.5%
Bulleen	LIB	12.7%
Polwarth	LIB	13.2%
Warrandyte	LIB	13.9%
Kew	LIB	13.9%
Hawthorn	LIB	14.2%
Rodney	NAT	14.4%
Brighton	LIB	14.8%
Scoresby	LIB	14.9%
Lowan	NAT	*
Murray Valley	NAT	15.8%
Malvern	LIB	16.2%

LABOR SEATS (42)

Seat	Party	Margin
Marginal
Bass	IND	*
Seymour	ALP	0.0%
Mitcham	ALP	0.0%
Carrum	ALP	1.4%
Ballarat West	ALP	1.6%
Cranbourne	ALP	1.6%
Ripon	ALP	1.9%
Oakleigh	ALP	3.0%
Bendigo East	ALP	3.0
Ballarat East	ALP	3.4
Fairly safe
Mulgrave	ALP	4.4%
Ivanhoe	ALP	4.9%
Mildura	IND	*
Niddrie	ALP	6.5%
Melton	ALP	6.7%
Keilor	ALP	6.7%
Albert Park	ALP	6.7%
Safe
Bundoora	ALP	7.3%
Gippsland East	IND	*
Essendon	ALP	8.3%
Yuroke	ALP	9.1%
Morwell	ALP	9.1%
Tarneit	ALP	10.8%
Lyndhurst	ALP	10.9%
Bendigo West	ALP	11.1%
Dandenong	ALP	11.6%
Clayton	ALP	12.1%
Melbourne	ALP	12.4%
Lara	ALP	12.7%
Mill Park	ALP	13.9%
Altona	ALP	15.6%
Richmond	ALP	15.9%
Pascoe Vale	ALP	16.9%
Footscray	ALP	17.9%
Williamstown	ALP	18.2%
Preston	ALP	18.9%
Very safe
Derrimut	ALP	20.3%
Kororoit	ALP	20.9%
Brunswick	ALP	21.3%
Northcote	ALP	22.7%
Thomastown	ALP	24.2%
Broadmeadows	ALP	25.0%

* Denotes seats were no margin could be calculated due to a non Liberal/National over Labor two candidate preferred at the previous election.

[edit] The Campaign

[edit] Labor Campaign

[edit] Liberal Campaign

Policies

Speed cameras (10% tolerance)
110 kph speed limit on freeways

'Law and Order' (not as succesful in 'liberal' Victoria)

Zone 3 abolished - attacked by Batchelor as too popular? Prehaps an effort to attract Green preferences (find source).

Offered to not run in Richmond and Melbourne to help Greens in exchange for their preferences in 'selected marginal seats'. [www.theage.com.au/articles/ 2002/11/02/1036308311635.htm]

After the 'Dean Affair', the Liberals, relising the weakness of their own position, was forced into a scare campaign directed at the likely possibilty of a Labor landslide. Political commontator Ewan Hannan wrote of Doyle's message during that final week 'Doyle has been as subtle as a locomotive, issuing daily warnings about the dire consequences of a Labor landslide.' ^[1] Doyle warned of 'feeding frenzy' that the Union leaders would embark upon. ^[2] Liberal campaign material neglected policy and and expressed defeatist sentiments such as 'by voting for me you can help stop a Labor landslide'. ^[3]

[edit] VicNats Campaign

[edit] Minor Parties Campaigns

[edit] The 'Dean Affair'

The Liberal campagin was rocked just two weeks before polling day when it emerged that shadow Treasurer Robert Dean was not enrolled to vote, and therefore illegiable to stand as a candidate.

Dean had rented a house in Berwick and during his succesful preselection battle for the seat of Gembrook against Robert Maclellan. However, Dean's lease on the properity expired in mid-2002 but Dean did not update his enrolement to indicate he was living in Hawthorn. The new tenants recieved material from the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) addressed to Dean and, not knowing who he was, sent it all back. ^[4] In October the VEC removed Dean from the electoral roll. On 13 November the VEC notified the Liberal Party that Dean was now inelligable to stand as a candidate.

Doyle immidately sacked him as shadow Treasurer but the damage had been done. Treasurer John Brumby asked how could the Liberal Party manage the economy if its own shadow Treasurer could not manage his own enrolement. ^[5] An Age Poll confirmed that the Liberals crediablity had been hit, with 11% of voters saying they were less likely to vote Liberal as a result of the scandal. ^[6] Even those in his own party were not sympathic, with Prime Minister John Howard saying 'Well, look, I barely know him but somebody who's as negligent as this really should do something else', while former Premier Jeff Kennett was typically more direct, exclaiming 'What a f-up'. ^[7] ^[8]

Some senior Liberal figures accused Dean of only renting the house in Berwick to help his own preselection, although Dean himself said he'd never hidden the fact that he also owned a house in Hawthorn, adding 'It gave us flexibility. Unfortunately we've not been able to have children. That's just been one of those disasters, so we decided we'd have two houses and that's the way it went'. ^[9]

The Liberals did have enough time to nominate a new candidate for Dean's seat of Gembrook, with upper house member Neil Lucas quickly nominated, while local councilor Mick Morland was nominated for Lucas's upper house seat of Eumemmerring Province. However the fairly safe Gembrook and the marginal Eumemmerring were both lost to Labor, with this incident seen as a major factor, at least in the case of the former. ^[10]

[edit] Opinion Polls

The tables below list voting intentions for the twelve months leading up to the 2002 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.

	Victorian state voting intention
	Political parties						Two-party preferred
						Other parties/ independents
1999 Election	45.6%	42.2%	4.8%	1.2%	0.3%	6.0%	50.2%	49.8%
November 2001	54.5%	30.5%	1.5%	5.5%	4%	8%	63%	37%
December 2001	47%	35.5%	2%	6%	5%	9.5%	56.5%	43.5%
January 2002	47%	35.5%	2%	6%	5%	9.5%	56%	44%
February 2002	47.5%	37.5%	2%	4%	4%	9%	56%	44%
March 2002	48%	36%	2.5%	5%	2.5%	8.5%	57%	43%
April 2002	49%	35%	1.5%	6%	4%	8.5%	58%	42%
May 2002	50%	31.5%	2%	6.5%	5%	10%	61.5%	38.5%
June 2002	45.5%	33.5%	3%	6.5%	5.5%	11.5%	57.5%	42.5%
July 2002	46.5%	35.5%	1.5%	6.5%	3.5%	9%	57.5%	42.5%
August 2002	49.5%	33.5%	1.5%	6.5%	3.5%	9%	59%	41%
September 2002	49%	34.5%	2%	8%	2.5%	6.5%	59.5%	40.5%
October 2002	47%	35.5%	2%	7%	2.5%	8.5%	55.5%	44.5%
November 2002	54.5%	32%	2%	7.5%	0.5%	8.5%	62%	38%
Source: Roy Morgan Research

[edit] Analysis

[edit] Results

Victorian legislative election, 2002 Legislative Assembly Results
Enrolled Voters		3,228,466
Votes Cast		2,904,551		Turnout	93.15	+0.77
Informal Votes		102,791		Informal %	3.41	+0.39
Party		Primary Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
	Australian Labor Party	1,392,704	47.95	+2.36	62	+20
	Liberal Party of Australia	985,011	33.91	-8.29	17	-19
	Victorian Greens	282,585	9.73	+8.58	0	0
	VicNats	125,003	4.31	-0.49	7	0
	Other	119,248	4.10	-2.46	2	-1
Total		2,904,551			88
Two-Party Preferred
	Australian Labor Party	1,617,184	58.26	+8.06
	Liberal / VicNats	1,158,439	41.74	-8.06

Victorian legislative election, 2002 Legislative Council Results
Enrolled Voters		3,228,466
Votes Cast		3,006,200		Turnout	93.11	+0.73
Informal Votes		110,422		Informal %	3.67	-0.30
Party		Primary Votes	%	Swing	Seats Won	Seats Held
	Australian Labor Party	1,375,245	47.49	+5.30	17	25
	Liberal Party of Australia	999,392	34.51	-5.24	3	15
	Victorian Greens	314,697	10.87	+8.64	0	0
	VicNats	126,419	4.37	-2.88	2	4
	Australian Democrats	51,718	1.79	-5.02	0	0
	Other	28,307	0.98	-0.78	0	0
Total		2,895,778			22	44

[edit] Maps

[edit] Electoral Pendulum

LABOR SEATS (62)

Seat	Party	Margin	Swing
Marginal
Evelyn	ALP	0.3%	+12.7%
Hastings	ALP	0.8%	+8.1%
Gembrook	ALP	1.6%	+8.6%
Melbourne	ALP	1.9% v GRN	*
Kilsyth	ALP	2.1%	+10.1%
Ferntree Gully	ALP	2.3%	+9.9%
Mount Waverley	ALP	2.3%	+11.4%
Bayswater	ALP	2.8%	+9.2%
Richmond	ALP	3.1% v GRN	*
Fairly safe
Prahan	ALP	4.4%	+9.2%
Mordialloc	ALP	4.5%	+7.1%
Bentleigh	ALP	4.8%	+6.8%
Eltham	ALP	4.8%	+8.6%
Morwell	ALP	4.9%	-4.2%
South Barwon	ALP	5.0%	+9.8%
Burwood	ALP	5.1%	+11.9%
Frankston	ALP	5.8%	+9.1%
Forest Hill	ALP	5.8%	+12.2%
Narracan	ALP	6.8%	+7.3%
Safe
Ripon	ALP	7.4%	+5.5%
Ballarat East	ALP	7.6%	+4.2%
Mitcham	ALP	7.7%	+7.7%
Northcote	ALP	7.9% v GRN	*
Geelong	ALP	8.1%	+8.6%
Bellarine	ALP	8.3%	+9.8%
Monbulk	ALP	8.3%	+10.8%
Ballarat West	ALP	9.0%	+7.4%
Macedon	ALP	9.3%	+9.7%
Brunswick	ALP	9.3%	*
Seymour	ALP	9.5%	+9.5%
Yan Yean	ALP	9.5%	+10.2%
Narre Warren North	ALP	9.7%	+14.9%
Cranbourne	ALP	10.8%	+9.2%
Carrum	ALP	12.2%	+10.8%
Ivanhoe	ALP	12.5%	+7.6%
Albert Park	ALP	12.5%	+5.8%
Narre Warren South	ALP	12.6%	+14.1%
Bendigo East	ALP	13.0%	+10.0%
Oakleigh	ALP	15.2%	+12.2%
Melton	ALP	15.3%	+8.6%
Yuroke	ALP	15.9%	+7.6%
Bendigo West	ALP	16.0%	+4.9%
Mulgrave	ALP	16.2%	+11.8%
Niddrie	ALP	16.6%	+10.1%
Tarneit	ALP	17.4%	+6.6%
Bundoora	ALP	17.6%	+10.3%
Keilor	ALP	18.1%	+11.4%
Very safe
Dandenong	ALP	20.3%	+8.7
Lara	ALP	22.4%	+9.7
Yuroke	ALP	22.9%	+13.8
Clayton	ALP	23.9%	+11.8
Pascoe Vale	ALP	24.2%	+7.3
Altona	ALP	24.7%%	+9.1
Footscray	ALP	24.9%	+7.0
Lyndhurst	ALP	25.1%	+14.2
Williamstown	ALP	25.7%	+7.5
Preston	ALP	25.8%	+6.9
Mill Park	ALP	26.8%	+12.9
Kororoit	ALP	27.1%	+6.2
Derrimut	ALP	27.3%	+7.0
Broadmeadows	ALP	30.8%	+5.8
Thomastown	ALP	31.8%	+7.6

LIBERAL-NATIONAL SEATS (26)

Seat	Party	Margin	Swing
Marginal
Nepean	LIB	0.2%	+6.1%
Bass	LIB	0.6%	*
South-West Coast	LIB	0.7%	+3.9%
Doncaster	LIB	0.8%	+11.7%
Box Hill	LIB	1.1%	+6.9%
Mornington	LIB	1.8%	+10.1%
Benalla	NAT	2.0%	+5.4%
Caulfield	LIB	2.3%	+6.0%
Bulleen	LIB	2.6%	+10.1%
Sandringham	LIB	3.0%	+9.2%
Scoresby	LIB	3.3%	+11.5%
Fairly safe
Benambra	LIB	4.0%	+3.6%
Shepperaton	NAT	4.3%	*
Hawthorn	LIB	5.9%	+8.3%
Kew	LIB	6.0%	+7.9%
Warrandyte	LIB	6.4%	+7.5%
Safe
Brighton	LIB	7.4%	+7.4%
Polwarth	LIB	9.5%	+3.7%%
Rodney	NAT	10.0% v LIB	*
Malvern	LIB	10.2%	+6.0%
Gippsland South	NAT	10.9%	-2.8%
Gippsland East	IND	11.8% v NAT	*
Murray Valley	NAT	13.9%	+1.9%
Swan Hill	NAT	14.2%	*
Lowan	NAT	17.1%	*
Mildura	IND	18.5% v NAT	*