Technology lifecycle

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Most new technologies follow a similar technology lifecycle describing the technological maturity of a product. This is not similar to a product life cycle, but applies to an entire technology, or a generation of a technology.

Technology adoption is the most common phenomenon driving the evolution of industries along the industry lifecycle.

[edit] Technology perception dynamics

There is usually technology hype at the introduction of any new technology, but only after some time has passed can it be judged as mere hype or justified true acclaim. Because of the logistic curve nature of technology adoption, it is difficult to see in the early stages whether the hype is excessive. You can almost never believe the hype.

The two errors commonly committed in the early stages of a technology's development are^{[citation needed]}:

fitting an exponential curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming eternal exponential growth
fitting a linear curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming that takeup of the new technology is disappointing

Similarly, in the later stages, the opposite mistakes can be made relating to the possibilities of technology maturity and market saturation.

Technology adoption typically occurs in an S curve, as modelled in diffusion of innovations theory. This is because customers respond to new products in different ways. Diffusion of innovations theory, pioneered by Everett Rogers, posits that people have different levels of readiness for adopting new innovations and that the characteristics of a product affect overall adoption.

[edit] Stages

From a layman's perspective, the technology life cycle can be broken down into five distinct stages.

Bleeding edge - any technology that shows high potential but hasn't demonstrated its value or settled down into any kind of consensus. Early adopters may win big, or may be stuck with a white elephant.
Leading edge - a technology that has proven itself in the marketplace but is still new enough that it may be difficult to find knowledgeable personnel to implement or support it.
State of the art - when everyone agrees that a particular technology is the right solution.
Dated - still useful, still sometimes implemented, but a replacement leading edge technology is readily available.
Obsolete - has been superseded by state-of-the-art technology, maintained but no longer implemented.