Technology hype

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See also: Hype cycle

Technological hype is sensational promotion of technology. It can refer to a particular product or a range of related pieces of technology that use the same operating principle or offer similar benefits. Alternatively it can apply to all technology that is promoted as offering improvements in the quality of life or productivity. Technological hype can be generated by individual companies, corporations, industry associations, whole governments or individuals. As most technology is developed by profit-making organisations, the hype is generated to maximise sales of the new technology. Governments may promote technology in this way as part of a drive to improve the quality of life, improve the economy or respond to industry lobbyists. Individuals who promote a given technology may be researchers or inventors interested in gaining publicity or finding a commercial application for their work. Some individuals also advocate a given technology out of the belief that it offers personal or societal benefits.

Hype is closely tied with enthusiasm, but implies communication: Hype is intended to induce enthusiasm in recipients. Hype can induce desire, motive, interest, energy. Unwanted hype has negatively effects recipients, who will likely resist the hype, and may seek to undermine it. Or, if the person agrees with the hype, the person may hype it themselves. As an innovation becomes popular, it works through clusters of people, and resembles an excitation network.

When a new technology is introduced, the innovators get excited by a concept. They introduce the concept to people, who then may get excited, or may reject initial hype. If they particularly agree with the idea, they may hype it themselves, to still others. The process repeats.

There is an idea called Gartner's Hype Cycle, that says that after an idea is accepted by many people, there is a disillusion. Realities behind the idea are separated from the idea itself. But with time and maturity, the idea may actually carry through, while people recollect from the idea and its backlash.

Many people use the phrase "hype" entirely disparagingly. "Hype," to these speakers, is anything that is not worth paying attention to. "Justified acclaim" is the name for the response to hype that actually followed through. The mechanics underlying hype and justified acclaim may be identical, but the different labels are applied on the basis of subsequent success or failure.

Because of the logistic curve nature of technology adoption, it is difficult to tell, when a new technology arrives, whether hype is justified or excessive.

Two common errors in the early stages of a new technology are:

• fitting an exponential curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming eternal exponential growth.
• fitting a linear curve to the first part of the growth curve, and assuming that takeup of the new technology is disappointing.

Similarly, in the later stages, the opposite mistakes can be made relating to the possibilities of technology maturity and market saturation.

In an extreme form hype does not relate to an actually existing product. Software that is hyped before it exists is sometimes called vaporware.

The popular media rarely question or investigate hype claims by academic researchers. Almost daily we read reports of a new "breakthrough" which "could" make (cancer, hunger, poverty, pollution, terrorism...) a thing of the past. The fact that an academic researcher makes the claim is enough to get top coverage in the popular media.