TechCast
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[edit] TechCast
Techcast’s tagline is “A Virtual Think Tank Tracking the Technology Revolution.” The goal of Techcast is to forecast technology in all fields by gathering information from a panel of experts. This information is important to various organizations for strategic planning because of the way that technology shapes our world. Techcast has forecasts on about 50-70 different technologies. Techcast offers this information to governments, corporations, scientists, and the public, all in real time online. They pride themselves on providing “convenient, authoritative forecasts at far lower cost and time savings.”
[edit] A Little History
This organization was developed by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at George Washington University and George Mason University. The system has been online since 1998. Earlier versions were done by mail; before it was online it was called “The GW Forecast.”
[edit] Methods
The methodology used by TechCast is based on an improved version of the Delphi technique (see website for a detailed diagram). This research system consists of five phases: Scanning, Analysis, Survey, Results, and Iterations. The first phase is pretty much what it says it is—experts scan various sources including scientific literature, media, Internet, interviews, and other sources to get the background information needed. The second phase consists of organizing the data into what they call a “breakthrough analysis” which includes a definition of the event that is being forecast, data points, as well as pros and cons that are driving the technology forward. The third phase involves surveying those in the expert panel to integrate the information online. The expert panel consists of engineers and scientists, futurists, corporate executives, government officials, consultants, and academic scholars. Techcast requires a minimum of 10 experts responding before they post results, and they often have about 30 or more experts respond. The fourth phase is where the data from phase three is gathered in order to forecast the “Most Likely Year” that the technology will be adopted, the “Experts’ Confidence” in that particular forecast, as well as the “Market Size” potential in United States economy when the technology reaches maturation. The fifth phase involves experts’ comments and new background information being incorporated in an updated version of the “breakthrough analysis.” This process is repeated about once a year in order to “track” the forecast over time. Techncast has found that when using this methodology, uncertainty can be reduced from 100% to about 20-30%.
[edit] Etc...
Information about membership and accessing forecasts can be found at Techcast.org.
[edit] References
Techcast.org. Accessed on March 20, 2007.
