Republic of China presidential election, 2008
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The Election for the 12th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (Chinese: 第十二任中華民國(台灣)總統副總統選舉) may be held in March 2008 (but as is customary in Republic of China elections, the date will probably not be determined until late 2007); it may also be held on the same day as the Republic of China legislative election, 2007. The election will be by direct popular vote; a simple plurality is required to win. According to the Constitution of the Republic of China, all citizens of the Republic of China of at least 20 years of age and with household registration in the "Free Area of the Republic of China" (Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.) will be eligible to vote. There is, however, ongoing discussion on lowering the voting age to 18 years and permitting absentee ballots for Republic of China citizens of the Free Area who reside outside the Free Area (i.e. in mainland China or overseas).[1] Under the current rules, all voters must travel to their registered precincts to vote.
This is the fourth direct election for the President of the Republic of China.
[edit] Candidates
As this is incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's second term, he is barred from running due to term limits. While the election is still more than a year away, several persons have been speculated as potential candidates:
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
- Frank Hsieh, former premier of the Republic of China, former DPP chairman; formally declared his candidacy on Feb. 16, 2007
- Su Tseng-chang, current premier of the Republic of China, former DPP chairman; announced his candidacy on Feb. 25. [2]
- Annette Lu, current vice president of the Republic of China. Frequently rumored to run, Lu recently stated she has no intentions of participating in the DPP primaries [3]; however, the vice president announced on March 6 that she will, in fact, run for president [4]
- Yu Shyi-kun, current chairman of the DPP, former premier of the Republic of China; announced his intention to participate in his party's primary run for president on Feb. 22. [5]
Kuomintang (KMT) , also known as the "Nationalist Party of China"
- Ma Ying-jeou, former KMT chairman and former Taipei Mayor, officially announced his candidacy on Feb. 13, 2007.
- Wang Jin-pyng, current president of the Legislative Yuan and former vice-chairman of the KMT
- Lien Chan, presidential candidate in 2000 and 2004, former KMT chairman, former ROC premier and vice-president; having failed twice, is unlikely to run again for president
- People First Party
- James Soong, former head of the Government Information Office, former Governor of the Province of Taiwan, former Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidate, founder and chairman of the PFP; originally considered a presidential hopeful, announced his retirement from politics after losing the 2006 Taipei City Mayoral election.
The ability of the Pan-Blue Coalition to name a unified ticket is uncertain. In the 2000 presidential election, the KMT nominated Lien Chan and James Soong (who was expelled from the KMT and would form the PFP after the election), ran as an independent on a separate ticket. Together they garnered 59.9% of the vote, but lost to the DPP's Chen Shui-bian who won 39.3% of the vote. This split in the electorate was widely seen to have led to Chen's victory, and in the 2004 presidential election, Lien and Soong ran on a combined ticket (with Lien for president and Soong for vice president). Though widely expected to win the election on the basis of their combined vote totals in 2000, they still lost by 0.22% of the vote.
Following the Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory over Wang Jin-pyng in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election and the KMT's apparent victory over the DPP in the 2005 3-in-1 local elections -- though the DPP made large gains at the local level, the KMT took most of the key county chief positions -- Ma is heavily favored for the Pan-Blue nomination. With the PFP's dismal showing in the 2004 legislative election and the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, there is increasing pressure for the PFP to merge with the KMT. The PFP announced on December 12 that it would merge into the KMT in two phases, the first being completed by the end of January 2006. However, the talks regarding any merger seems to have ceased for now.
The most likely scenario under which Pan-Blue is unable to field a common candidate is if Soong demands to run as president over Ma. On the eve of the 2005 chairmanship election, Soong had made a televised endorsement of Ma's opponent Wang Jin-pyng. Another scenario is if the PFP, if it has not yet merged with the KMT, demands a place on the combined ticket and the KMT refuses and decides that both presidential and vice presidential nominees should be KMT members. The third party in the Pan-Blue Coalition, the New Party, has largely integrated itself into the KMT (it fielded all but one if its members under the KMT banner in the 2004 legislative elections), and is not expected to either name its own ticket or demand to be placed on the ticket (unlike the PFP's Soong, no New Party politician has the political stature to be touted in the media as a potential presidential candidate).
Former KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has began his campaign before his announcement for candidacy, taking trips Europe and Japan in 2006, nominally to obtain business deals for Taipei, but covered widely by the media for his foreign policy remarks. Significantly, Ma Ying-jeou became the first head of a pan-Blue coalition party to state that declaring de jure Taiwanese independence was a legitimate choice of the Taiwanese people, though he qualified it saying that this was not a position of the KMT, after receiving much criticism from pan-Blue politicians. He also stated that Taiwan should form a common market with China and establish direct transportation links. Ma has also expressed an interest to relocate to southern Taiwan—the traditional pan-Green stronghold—after his term as Taipei mayor ends in 2006, though this speculation has yet to become true. Ma officially announced his entry into the 2008 race on February 13, 2007. The Democratic Progressive Party has announced that they will announce candidates sometime in February or March. Former premier and Mayor of Kaohsiung Frank Hsieh subsequently announced his bid for the presidency on Feb. 16.
Candidates are to register with their respective parties between March 5-9 for a primary election. Selection of candidates for President in the Republic of China, unlike most other nations, are weighed. The actual primary election results account for 30% of the final outcome while public opinion polls account for the other 70%. Final tallies are announced May 30, 2007. [6]
[edit] Issues
Given that the election is more than a year away, the specific issues that will be discussed in the campaign have not yet materialized. Much of the information on potential issues is purely speculative and political stances and coalitions are subject to change. Currently, with the recent success in the three-in-one local elections of 2005 and the increasing popularity of the former KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou, and the declining popularity of old guard PFP chairman James Soong, the KMT and PFP are considering a merger or a closer coalition. The PFP is a much smaller breakaway party from the KMT that previously relied solely on the popularity of their leader, James Soong. After his sound defeat in the Taipei Mayoral Elections of 2006, James Soong has subsequently announced his retirement from politics, throwing yet another twist in speculations and rumors for the 2008 presidential race.
As is common with Taiwanese elections, a major issue of the campaign will likely be over the future of the political status of Taiwan and maintaining good cross-straits relations. The DPP favors eventual Taiwan independence; the KMT on the other hand, is willing to accept the PRC's one-China principle and believes that Taiwan will eventually unify with China. The KMT's main objective is to establish economic ties with China while remaining an independent state. Unlike the DPP, it is much more flexible in terms of diplomatic rhetoric. It is widely recognized that no candidate could win without supporting the status quo of de facto independence (as they did in 2004) in order to attract centrist voters. The strategy of both sides, as was the case in 2004, will be to persuade voters that it can best maintain the status quo and protect Taiwan from an invasion by the People's Republic of China.
While the smaller, more radical TSU favors immediate moves to establish a Taiwanese state, the much more mainstream DPP under Chen Shui-bian has so far taken a more moderate position regarding independence. At the same time the Chen administration has moved to promote a separate Taiwanese identity and give official recognition to Taiwan's de facto independence from the mainland such as by equating Taiwan with the Republic of China. The front-runners for the DPP nomination are all considered moderates like Chen Shui-bian.
The KMT party line is against one country, two systems, but is supportive of dialogue with the Communist Party of China under the "1992 Consensus." The DPP, in contrast, opposes recognizing One China (a prerequisite set by the PRC for negotiations), and no talks have occurred under the Chen administration. The KMT also supports immediately opening up the three links with mainland China, which the DPP has been reluctant to implement, and this reluctant willingness is further impeded by the PRC's refusal to negotiate unless the government accepts the one-China principle and the so-called 1992 consensus.
Another issue to be discussed in the years before the election is constitutional reform. President Chen Shui-bian had pledged in his second inaugural address to draft a new constitution by 2006 to take effect upon the inauguration of the 12th-term president in 2008. This is opposed by the Pan-Blue Coalition, which seeks only changes through amendments to the existing document. A constitutional reform package was passed in 2005 with cross-party support, while the "Constitutional Reform Committee" proposed by President Chen to draft the new Constitution has never been formed. It appears, that with Pan-Blue controlling the Legislative Yuan until at least February 2008 (following the 2007 legislative election) and few actions being taken by the president for drafting a new Constitution, there will be no new Constitution for 2008.
Other emerging issues may include the alleged misuse of funds by members of both the KMT and DPP: Ma Ying-Jeou was indicted on charges of misusing his Mayoral funds, and the First Lady has been indicted for embezzling from a national account (President Chen is immune from any charges as the law gives a sitting president immunity). Another issue may possibly be the recent restoration of "Taiwan" to names in state-controlled and state-owned firms, such as replacing Chunghwa Post with Taiwan Post, the name it bore into the ROC period of rule on Taiwan, and Chiang Kai-Shek International Airport to Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, its originally planned name. Pro-China observers tend to view the name changes as signs of reactionary desinicization carried out by President Chen to appease his base supporters, while others view the name changing as signs of Taiwan localization movement carving an identity for Taiwan's name. The issue is, like most others, split strongly between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green supporters.
[edit] References
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Republic of China presidential elections
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