Prediction theory of law
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The prediction theory of law was a key component of the Oliver Wendell Holmes' jurisprudential philosophy. At its most basic, the theory is a refutation of most previous definitions of the law. Holmes believed that the law should be defined as a prediction, most specifically, a prediction of how the courts behave. His rationale was based on an argument regarding the opinion of a "bad man." Bad men, Holmes argued in his paper The Path of the Law, care little for ethics or lofty conceptions of natural law; instead they care simply about staying out of jail and avoiding paying damages. In Holmes's mind, therefore, it was most useful to define "the law" as a prediction of what will bring punishment or other consequences from a court.
The theory played a key role in influencing American Legal Realism.
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