Post hoc ergo propter hoc
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- For the episode of the television program The West Wing, see Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc (The West Wing)
Post hoc ergo propter hoc, Latin for "after this, therefore because of this", is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) which assumes or asserts that if one event happens after another, then the first must be the cause of the second. It is often shortened to simply post hoc and is also sometimes referred to as false cause, multicollinearity, or coincidental correlation.
Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. Most familiarly, many superstitious beliefs and magical thinking arise from this fallacy.
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[edit] Pattern
The form of the post hoc fallacy can be expressed as follows:
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- A occurred, then B occurred.
- Therefore, A caused B.
[edit] Examples
From Attacking Faulty Reasoning by T. Edward Damer, Third Edition p. 131:
| “ | "I can't help but think that you are the cause of this problem; we never had any problem with the furnace until you moved into the apartment." The manager of the apartment house, on no stated grounds other than the temporal priority of the new tenant's occupancy, has assumed that the tenant's presence has some causal relationship to the furnace's becoming faulty. | ” |
From With Good Reason by S. Morris Engel, Fifth Edition p. 165:
| “ | More and more young people are attending high schools and colleges today than ever before. Yet there is more juvenile delinquency and more alienation among the young. This makes it clear that these young people are being corrupted by their education. | ” |
[edit] See also
- Superstition
- Magical thinking
- Cargo cult
- Correlation does not imply causation (Cum hoc ergo propter hoc–"with this therefore because of this")
- Regression fallacy
[edit] External links
- Post hoc fallacy in the Skeptic's Dictionary by Robert T. Carroll
- Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc in the Fallacy Files by Gary N. Curtis
- Non Causa Pro Causa in the Fallacy Files by Gary N. Curtis
