Pitch count

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A pitch count is a baseball statistic, most commonly applied to starting pitchers, and is simply a count of how many pitches the pitcher has thrown in a given game.

Except under unusual circumstances, a minimum of three pitches are needed to get three outs. It is very common for a pitcher to need 20 pitches to get through an inning.

Pitch counts are a concern for young pitchers, pitchers recovering from injury, or pitchers who have a history of injuries. Often a starting pitcher will be removed from the game after 100 pitches, regardless of the actual number of innings pitched. Pitch counts are generally less of a concern for veteran pitchers, who after years of conditioning are often able to pitch deeper into games, but this is not universal. Pedro Martinez is a famous exception, and is often lifted after throwing 100 pitches. A pitcher's size, stature, and athleticism can also play a role in how many pitches a pitcher can throw in a single game while maintaining effectiveness and without risk of injury.

Pitch count can also be used to gauge the effectiveness of a pitcher. It is better under most circumstances for a pitcher to use the smallest number of pitches possible to get three outs.

Opposing teams also pay attention to pitch counts, and may try to foul off as many pitches as possible (or at least any difficult-to-hit pitches) either on the theory that a tired pitcher is less effective, or to inflate the pitch count and drive a pitcher from the game in favor of a more rested, but possibly less effective relief pitcher. This tactic, however, is less effective against teams with a particularly strong bullpen, and can lead to a greater number of strikeouts against particularly talented pitchers, such as Johan Santana.

The concept of a pitch count originated with Steve Busby, a promising young pitcher for the Kansas City Royals who won 56 games in his first three full seasons but suffered from a rotator cuff tear at age 27 due to overwork. His doctor suggested counting the number of pitches Busby threw as a means of gauging his recovery. Prior to his injury, Busby is known to have thrown 200 or more pitches in a game--double the number of pitches recommended today.

The maximum optimal pitch count for a starter is reckoned to be about 100.[1][2] The near-obsession with pitch counts has resulted in a significant decline in complete games since the 1980s. Former major league pitcher (and current Minnesota Twins broadcaster) Bert Blyleven, who pitched many complete games in his time, has raised the sarcastic question, "What happens to you if you go over 100 pitches? Do you explode?" The answer of course is no, but in the modern trend of more aggressive hitting, pitchers often hit the 100 mark by the middle innings, leading managers and owners to be cautious of their (usually) multi-million dollar investments getting injured. Hence, pitchers are usually pulled from the game at that point.

Conversely, it has also been argued that the inclusion of the pitch count has hurt pitchers more than it has protected them. These critics contend that pitchers are "babied" and that many of the injuries that pitchers have suffered since the inclusion of the pitch count are from such treatment. One noted advocate of this "old-school" style of thinking is former Florida Marlins manager Jack McKeon, who openly told his pitchers (and the media) that he did not keep a pitch count, and that he expected his pitchers to get into the mindset of completing what they started (i.e., for his starters to pitch a complete game).

[edit] See also

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ Rany Jazayerli, "Baseball Prospectus Basics: How We Measure Pitcher Usage," BaseballProspectus.com (March 3, 2004)[1].
  2. ^ A statistic labeled PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) developed by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus in 1998 set such an absolute cut-point of 100 pitches, below which there was no pitcher abuse (overuse) but above which one abuse point was added for each 10 additional pitches. Later, however, Jazayerli conceded PAP to a more sensitive measure, called PAP3 developed by Keith Woolner and first published in the Baseball Prospectus 2001 annual volume. In an article in that same volume, Jazayerli declared: "PAP is dead. Long live PAP3." PAP3 was more highly predictive of declines in pitcher endurance and the risk of breakdowns than the original PAP measure. PAP3 still takes 100 pitches as a reference point but penalizes use above that point as a cubic function of the number of pitches above that level.

[edit] References

  • Jazayerli, Rany. 1998. "Pitcher Abuse Points: A New Way to Measure Pitcher Abuse," BaseballProspectus.com (June 19).[2]
  • Jazayerli, Rany. 1999. "Pitcher Abuse Points - One Year Later: A Look Back...and Ahead," BaseballProspectus.com (May 28).[3]
  • Jazayerli, Rany. 2001. "Rethinking Pitcher Abuse," Baseball Prospectus 2001 (Dulles, VA: Brassey's): 491-504.
  • Woolner, Keith, and Rany Jazayerli. 2001. "Analyzing PAP," Baseball Prospectus 2001 (Dulles, VA: Brassey's): 505-516.
  • Woolner, Keith. 2002. "PAP3 FAQ," BaseballProspectus.com (June 5).[4]
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