Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2010

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The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2010 will be held on November 2, 2010, and will include the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. The winning candidates will serve a four year term from 2011 to 2015.

The incumbent Governor, Ed Rendell (D), will be ineligible for reelection under Pennsylvania's existing term limit laws (state law limits Pennsylvania governors to two consecutive 4-year terms). Catherine Baker Knoll (D), the current Lieutenant Governor, will be 80 years old at the time of the election and it is considered unlikely that she will challenge for the state's top post. This opens the possibility of wide open primaries in both major political parties.

[edit] Political trends

Pennsylvania is considered a swing state in which neither political party dominates. Although the state has voted Democratic for 8 of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation has been majority Republican for most of the late 20th and first years of the 21st century and Republicans have controlled the state legislature for much of that time.

The 2006 election saw Bob Casey, Jr. as the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate since Joseph S. Clark narrowly won reelection in 1962. Also in the 2006 election, the Republican Party retained control of the Pennsylvania State Senate (29 Republican seats and 21 Democrat seats). The Democratic Party won control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the Republicans by a single seat majority (102 to 101) in 2006; however due to political infighting among Democratic legislators, a moderate Republican was elected Speaker of the House.

In the 2000 Presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore won the state 51%-47% over then-Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, in an even closer election, Senator John Kerry carried the state 51%-49% over Bush. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since choosing George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis 51%-48% in 1988.

The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny are Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75% Democrat, Allegheny: 60% Democrat), while the central and northern parts of the state, collectively referred to as the "the T," are generally conservative and vote Republican.

The populous counties of the Philadelphia suburbs; Chester, Montgomery, Deleware, and Bucks have been traditionally Republican strongholds. In the past several elections however, many of these suburban areas have been trending more Democratic.

The statewide party registration as of 2006 is:^[1]

Party	Count	Share
Democratic	3,900,685	47.7%
Republican	3,300,894	40.3%
Other	981,297	12.0%

[edit] Potential candidates

No one has formally declared their candidacy for governor, and the list of potential candidates is highly speculative at this point; however, several names have begun to surface among political pundits and writers: [1]

Democrats:

- Mark Singel - a two term Lt. Governor under Bob Casey, Sr. who lost the 1994 gubernatorial election to Tom Ridge.

- Dan Onorato - the current Chief Executive of Allegheny County.

- Jack Wagner - the current Auditor General of Pennsylvania.

- Barbara Hafer - Former State Treasurer and Auditor General of Pennsylvania.

- Don Cunningham - current Chief Executive of Lehigh County.

Republican:

- Lynn Swann - Thomas Baldino, a political science professor at Wilkes College has stated, "I think he's established some credibility as a candidate with the public and Republican Party leaders. He will have earned at least some consideration for another go" [2].

- Tom Corbett - The current Attorney General of Pennsylvania.

- Bill Scranton - the former Lt. Governor, 1986 gubinatorial candidate, and son of Governor William W. Scranton is believed to still harbor political aspirations.

- Melissa Hart - Former U.S. Congresswoman for the Fourth Congressional District.

- Pat Toomey - Former U.S. Congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Arlen Specter in the primary election in 2004.

- Rick Santorum - Although the former U.S. Senator has made no statements concerning the 2010 election, well known Pennsylvania political analyst Charlie Gerow has stated, "Like him or not, he's a very talented guy. If he runs for governor, he'd be formidable."

- John Pippy - A Pennsylvania State Senator from Moon Township, Pennsylvania.

- Two former Republican Governors, Tom Ridge and Mark Schweiker, would both be eligible to run but neither man has shown any overt interest in organizing a campaign.