Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006
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The Pennsylvania United States Senate election of 2006 was held on November 7, 2006. Bob Casey, Jr. was elected to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013. Casey, a Democrat, defeated the Republican incumbent, Rick Santorum, 59% to 41%. The race was an early target for Democratic leaders who sought to gain seats in the United States Senate.[1] Santorum trailed Casey in every public poll taken during the campaign. Casey's margin of victory was the largest ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, and the largest margin of victory for a Senate challenger in the 2006 elections.[2]
The Democratic primary was held on May 16, 2006. The candidates were Pennsylvania State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., University of the Arts history professor Chuck Pennacchio, and Philadelphia attorney Alan Sandals.[3] Casey won a landslide victory in the primary with 85% of the votes.[4]
Santorum was unopposed in the Republican primary. John Featherman, who ran against Santorum in 2000 as a Libertarian, had been expected to challenge him in the 2006 Republican primary. However, Featherman withdrew his candidacy after a GOP petition challenge because he did not have the necessary number of signatures to get on the ballot.[5]
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[edit] Election results
| 2006 United States Senate election, Pennsylvania | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
| Democratic | Bob Casey, Jr. | 2,345,082 | 58.7 | +13.2 | |
| Republican | Rick Santorum (incumbent) | 1,652,486 | 41.3 | -11.1 | |
| Majority | 692,596 | 17.4 | |||
| Turnout | 3,941,794 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | 12.2% | |||
At 9:45 PM EST on Election Night, Santorum called Casey to concede defeat.[6]
[edit] Candidates
[edit] Major party candidates
[edit] Republican Party
- Rick Santorum - former U.S. congressman for PA-18 1991-1995, former U.S. Senator 1995-2007
[edit] Democratic Party
- Bob Casey, Jr. - son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., former state auditor general 1997-2005, former state treasurer 2005-2007, U.S. Senator since 2007
[edit] Withdrawn/defeated candidates
[edit] Republican Party
- John Featherman
[edit] Democratic Party
- Chuck Pennacchio
- Alan Sandals
- Joe Hoeffel - former U.S. congressman for PA-13 1999-2005, 2004 Democratic Senate nominee against Arlen Specter, endorsed Casey in March 2005[7]
- Barbara Hafer - 1990 GOP gubernatorial nominee against Bob Casey, Sr., former state auditor general 1989-1997, former state treasurer 1997-2005, switched parties in 2003, endorsed Casey in June 2005[8]
[edit] Green Party
- Carl Romanelli - rail industry consultant, was removed from ballot by a Commonwealth Court judge on September 25, 2006 for failing to collect enough valid signatures required of third-party candidates, lost appeal to state Supreme Court for challenge to required number of signatures on October 3, 2006[9] The democrats went out on an unethical “witch hunt” to keep Romanelli off of the ballot because, as evidence with Ralph Nader’s presidential bids, they do not care about democracy. The democrats seem to ignore the fact that people who vote Green Party do this because they realize the hypocrisy and overall lack of progress within the Democratic Party and keeping them off the ballot only further shows their ignorance. Romanelli’s absence from the race took away the issues of universal healthcare, abortion, gun-control, an end to the war in Iraq, and an end to drug war. Casey and Santorum both shared the same conservative viewpoints on these issues.
[edit] Independents
- Kate Michelman - former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, considered an independent bid because of Casey's opposition to abortion rights, decided against a run and tacitly endorsed Casey in March 2006[10]
[edit] Factors in the election
[edit] Santorum's controversial views
In the Senate, Santorum was an outspoken conservative from a state with a history of electing moderates. This led many political commentators to speculate that his low approval ratings were due to some of his more controversial statements and opinions.
Among these controversies were his views on the privatization of Social Security[11][12] and the teaching of intelligent design in public schools.[13] In addition, his involvement in the Terri Schiavo case was considered by many in his state to be out of place.[14][15]
All this left Santorum in a precarious position throughout the race. On May 31, 2006, the polling firm Rasmussen Reports declared that Santorum was the "most vulnerable incumbent" among the Senators running for re-election.[16] SurveyUSA polling taken right before the election showed that Santorum was the least popular of all 100 Senators, with a 38% approval rating and a net approval rating of -19%.[17]
For more, please view the Rick Santorum political controversies section.
[edit] Santorum's residency
While Santorum maintained a small residence in Penn Hills, a township near Pittsburgh, his family primarily lived in a large house in Leesburg, a suburb of Washington, D.C. in Northern Virginia. Santorum faced charges of hypocrisy from critics who noted the similarities between his living situation and that of former Representative Doug Walgren, who Santorum defeated in 1990. Back then, Santorum had claimed that Walgren was out of touch with his district; these claims were backed up with commercials showing Walgren's home in the Virginia suburbs.[18]
On NBC's Meet the Press on September 3, 2006, Santorum admitted that he only spent "maybe a month a year, something like that" at his Pennsylvania residence.[19]
See the Rick Santorum page for more on Santorum's residency controversies, including information surrounding his children's former enrollment in the Pennsylvania Cyber Charter School.
[edit] Casey's momentum
Santorum began his contrast campaign against Casey early, charging him with relentlessly seeking higher political office[20] and failing to take definitive stands on issues.[21] While these charges kept the race competitive, in late September and through October, Casey's campaign seemed to regain the momentum it had had throughout most of the campaign, as most polls showed Casey widening his lead after a summer slump. In Quinnipiac University's poll, released on September 26, 2006, Casey was favored by 14 points.[22] An October 18, 2006 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Casey with a similar double-digit lead. In the Rasmussen poll, only 46% of voters surveyed had a favorable view of Santorum, while 57% of voters viewed Casey favorably.[23]
[edit] Negative advertisements
At least one of Santorum's television ads called into question his campaign's use of the facts regarding Casey and persons who had donated money to the Casey campaign.[24] The ad, which aired in September, showed several men seated around a table, while talking amongst themselves and smoking cigars, inside a jail cell. While none of the figures, who were played by actors, were named personally, the narrator provided the job descriptions, previous donations to Casey, and ethical and/or legal troubles of each. The Santorum campaign later provided the names of the persons portrayed. An editorial in Casey's hometown newspaper, The Times-Tribune, pointed out that all but one of the contributions "[was] made to Casey campaigns when he was running for other offices, at which time none of the contributors were known to be under investigation for anything."[25] In fact, two of the persons cited in the Santorum campaign ad had actually given contributions to Santorum's 2006 Senate campaign. Another of the figures portrayed had died in 2004. Political scientist Larry Sabato called the ad "over the top" and suspected that the fallout would hurt Santorum.[26]
[edit] Opinion polling
Final pre-election polling
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Vision (R) | November 6, 2006 | 52% | 40% |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | November 5, 2006 | 52% | 39% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | November 3, 2006 | 51% | 43% |
| Reuters/Zogby International | November 2, 2006 | 48% | 40% |
| Keystone | November 1, 2006 | 53% | 38% |
| Quinnipiac | November 1, 2006 | 52% | 42% |
| Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer | October 29, 2006 | 54% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | October 28, 2006 | 55% | 42% |
| West Chester University | October 27, 2006 | 50% | 39% |
Rasmussen Reports
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen | October 28, 2006 | 55% | 42% |
| Rasmussen | October 16, 2006 | 55% | 43% |
| Rasmussen | October 5, 2006 | 50% | 37% |
| Rasmussen | September 20, 2006 | 49% | 39% |
| Rasmussen | August 22, 2006 | 48% | 40% |
| Rasmussen | July 26, 2006 | 50% | 39% |
| Rasmussen | June 19, 2006 | 52% | 37% |
| Rasmussen | May 22, 2006 | 56% | 33% |
| Rasmussen | April 20, 2006 | 51% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | March 29, 2006 | 50% | 41% |
| Rasmussen | March 14, 2006 | 48% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | February 16, 2006 | 52% | 36% |
| Rasmussen | January 15, 2006 | 53% | 38% |
| Rasmussen | November 10, 2005 | 54% | 34% |
| Rasmussen | July 22, 2005 | 52% | 41% |
Quinnipiac University
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | November 1, 2006 | 52% | 42% |
| Quinnipiac | September 26, 2006 | 54% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac | August 15, 2006 | 47% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac | June 21, 2006 | 52% | 34% |
| Quinnipiac | May 11, 2006 | 49% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac | April 6, 2006 | 48% | 37% |
| Quinnipiac | February 13, 2006 | 51% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac | December 13, 2005 | 50% | 38% |
| Quinnipiac | October 3, 2005 | 52% | 34% |
| Quinnipiac | July 13, 2005 | 50% | 39% |
| Quinnipiac | April 23, 2005 | 49% | 35% |
| Quinnipiac | February 16, 2005 | 46% | 41% |
Strategic Vision (R)
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Vision (R) | November 6, 2006 | 52% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | November 1, 2006 | 49% | 39% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | October 24, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | September 28, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | August 17, 2006 | 47% | 41% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | July 20, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | June 15, 2006 | 49% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | May 10, 2006 | 49% | 41% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | April 13, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | March 15, 2006 | 52% | 38% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | January 25, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | December 18, 2005 | 50% | 39% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | November 16, 2005 | 51% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | October 16, 2005 | 52% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | September 12, 2005 | 52% | 38% |
| Strategic Vision (R) | July 31, 2005 | 51% | 40% |
Keystone
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keystone | November 1, 2006 | 53% | 38% |
| Keystone | September 18, 2006 | 45% | 38% |
| Keystone | August 24, 2006 | 44% | 39% |
| Keystone | May 4, 2006 | 47% | 41% |
| Keystone | February 9, 2006 | 50% | 39% |
| Keystone | November 10, 2005 | 51% | 35% |
| Keystone | September 13, 2005 | 50% | 37% |
| Keystone | June 6, 2005 | 44% | 37% |
| Keystone | March 22, 2005 | 44% | 43% |
Zogby
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby International/Reuters | November 2, 2006 | 48% | 40% |
| Zogby International/Reuters | October 5, 2006 | 48% | 36% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 28, 2006 | 45.8% | 39.8% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 11, 2006 | 47.0% | 42.9% |
| Zogby Interactive | August 28, 2006 | 50.5% | 41.7% |
| Zogby Interactive | July 24, 2006 | 49.2% | 40.2% |
| Zogby Interactive | June 21, 2006 | 47.9% | 41.3% |
| Zogby Interactive | March 30, 2006 | 47.4% | 39.4% |
| Zogby International | January 27, 2006 | 50.5% | 38.7% |
| Zogby Interactive | January 19, 2006 | 51.1% | 41.4% |
| Zogby Interactive | September 13, 2005 | 51.2% | 42.4% |
Other Polls
| Source | Date | Casey (D) | Santorum (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | November 5, 2006 | 52% | 39% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | November 3, 2006 | 51% | 43% |
| Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer | October 29, 2006 | 54% | 38% |
| West Chester University | October 27, 2006 | 50% | 39% |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | October 24, 2006 | 51% | 39% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | October 8, 2006 | 46% | 41% |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | October 2, 2006 | 49% | 40% |
| Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer | September 24, 2006 | 49% | 39% |
| USA Today/Gallup | August 27, 2006 | 56% | 38% |
| Benenson Strategy Group (D) | August 16, 2006 | 51% | 37% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | August 6, 2006 | 45% | 39% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | April 26, 2006 | 46% | 38% |
| Mansfield University | March 7, 2006 | 45% | 31% |
| Muhlenberg/Morning Call | March 4, 2006 | 49% | 37% |
[edit] References
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum in cross hairs for 2006 election." January 17, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Borys Krawczeniuk. The Times-Tribune. "Casey dominated like no one before." November 9, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Voters Guide 2006: 2 battle Casey for Democratic U.S. Senate nomination." May 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Pennsylvania Department of State. Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Kimberly Hefling, The Associated Press. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum's only GOP challenger bowing out of primary." March 16, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Carrie Budoff and Emilie Lounsberry. The Philadelphia Inquirer. "Sen. Santorum loses in a landslide." November 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Peter Jackson, The Associated Press. The Times-Tribune. Casey to seek Senate nominationl; Hafer and Hoeffel out." March 4, 2007. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Bob Casey for US Senate. "Hafer endorses Casey for U.S. Senate." June 7, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Green Party hopeful is out; win for Casey." October 4, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Democratic long shots seek limelight." March 21, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Maeve Reston. Pittsburgh-Post Gazette. "Santorum finds many minds made up on Social Security." February 22, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Americans United. "Americans United announces "Mobilization against Privatization." April 19, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ The Associated Press. The Washington Post. Santorum breaks with Christian Right law center." December 23, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Tom Barnes. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum defends Schiavo visit." June 18, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Page Rockwell. Salon. "Rick Santorum's Schiavo woes." April 25, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2005.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Casey by 23." May 31, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ SurveyUSA. "Approval Ratings for all 100 U.S. Senators as of 10/24/06." October 24, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Brian O'Neill. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Santorum: Hoisted on his own back yard." May 25, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Meet the Press with Tim Russert. "MTP Transcript for Sept. 3." September 6, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ RickSantorum.com. "Hey There, Hi There, Ho There." August 26, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
- ^ Bill Toland. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum, Casey go toe-to-toe in debate." October 13, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
- ^ Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Casey leads Santorum among likely voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania poll finds; incumbent's momentum has stalled." September 26, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum trailing by 13." October 18, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ RickSantorum.com. "Corner Bar." September 13, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ The Times-Tribune. "Santorum hurls the low hard one." September 15, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
- ^ Larry Eichel. The Philadelphia Inquirer. "Santorum ad impugns ethics of Casey 'team.'" September 14, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
[edit] External links
- Casey's United States Senate Website
- Santorum's Campaign Website
- Casey's Campaign Website
- On the Issues: Rick Santorum
- On the Issues: Bob Casey
- Washington Post Analysis on Senate Race
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