Paul Raskin
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Dr. Paul Raskin is the Founding Director of the Tellus Institute which has conducted over 3,500 research and policy projects throughout the world on environmental issues, resource planning, and sustainable development. His research and writing has centered on formulating and analyzing alternative global and regional scenarios, and the requirements for a transition to a sustainable, just, and livable future — a future he calls a "Great Transition". His work on scenario analysis has been the basis of numerous high-profile international assessments.
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[edit] Background
Dr. Raskin received a B.A. in physics from the University of California, Berkeley in 1964 and a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Columbia University in 1970. He then taught at the university level, becoming chair of an interdisciplinary department at the State University of New York at Albany in 1973. In 1976, he founded the Tellus Institute, where he has directed a team of professionals in environmental, resource, and development policy research. Tellus has worked throughout North America and the world. Raskin also founded the U.S. center of the Stockholm Environment Institute in 1989, The Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1995, and the Great Transition Initiative (GTI) in 2003.
[edit] Research Contributions
Dr. Raskin’s research has evolved through several major phases: energy and the environment, integrated freshwater assessment, strategies for climate change mitigation, and sustainable development studies. He conceived, developed, and disseminated such widely used models as the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system, the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system and PoleStar, a comprehensive framework for exploring alternative global, regional and national scenarios.
Since 1995, his work has centered on developing comprehensive long-range scenarios of socio-ecological systems at different spatial scales: river-basin, nation, region, and globe. He led the GSG writing team for the influential essay Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. This popular treatise is based on a large body of analysis of institutional, resource, and environmental trends and possibilities, and on detailed computer simulation of alternative global scenarios. The conceptual point of departure of this work is that humanity is in the midst of a profound transition, which the essay refers to as the Planetary Phase of Civilization. Some form of global society will consolidate in the coming decades but its ultimate character remains highly uncertain and dependent on the choices people make in the critical years ahead. The essay envisions three broad types of possible twenty-first century scenarios — Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions — and a number of variations within each category.
Conventional Worlds are evolutionary scenarios that arise gradually from the dominant forces of globalization: economic interdependence grows, dominant values spread, and developing regions converge toward rich-country patterns of production and consumption. In the Market Forces variation, powerful global actors advance the priority of economic growth through such neo-liberal policies as free trade, privatization, deregulation, and the modernization and integration of developing regions into the market nexus. The Policy Reform scenario adds comprehensive governmental initiatives to harmonize economic growth with a broad set of social and environmental goals. But Conventional Worlds visions face an immense challenge. They must reverse destabilizing global trends — social polarization, environmental degradation, and economic instability — even as they advance the consumerist values, economic growth, and cultural homogenization that drive such trends.
If unattended, ominous environmental and social trends could lead to systemic global crisis and development could veer toward a Barbarization scenario. Such a tragic retreat from civilized norms might take the form of an authoritarian Fortress World, with elites in protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside, or Breakdown, in which conflict spirals out of control, waves of disorder spread, and institutions collapse.
By contrast, Great Transitions are transformative scenarios in which a new suite of values ascend — human solidarity, quality of life, and respect for nature — that revise the very meaning of development and the goal of the “good life”. In this vision, solidarity is the foundation for a more egalitarian social contract, poverty eradication, and democratic political engagement at all levels. Human fulfillment in all its dimensions is the measure of development, displacing consumerism and the false metric of GDP. An ecological sensibility that understands humanity as part of a wider community of life is the basis for true sustainability and the healing of the Earth. One Great Transition variation is Eco-Communalism, a highly localist vision favored by some environmental subcultures. But the plausibility and stability of radically detached communities in the planetary phase are problematic. The New Sustainability Paradigm is more promising, seeing globalization, not only a threat, but also an opportunity for forging new categories of consciousness: global citizenship, humanity-as-whole, the wider web of life, and sustainability and the well-being of future generations. This is a pluralistic vision that, within a shared commitment to global citizenship, celebrates diverse regional forms of development and multiple pathways to modernity.
This scenario framework been used in numerous global, regional and national scenario assessments, such as UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook Assessment.
[edit] Selected Writings on Global Scenarios
Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (2002)
World Lines: Pathways, Pivots and the Global Future (2006)
The Great Transition Today: A Report from the Future (2006)
The Problem of the Future: Sustainability Science and Scenario Analysis. Global Environmental Change 14:137-146. (2004)
Global Environmental Outlook Scenario Framework. (2002)
Global Sustainability: Bending the Curve. London: Routledge Press. (2002)
Halfway to the Future: A Reflection on the Global Condition. Tellus Institute. (2002)
Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. Report of the Board on Sustainability of National Academy of Sciences. (1999)
Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability. Second Report of the Global Scenario Group. (1998)
Windows on the Future: Global Scenarios and Sustainability. Environment Magazine. (April 1998)
Global Energy, Sustainability and the Conventional Development Paradigm, Energy Sources, 20:363-383. (1998)
Water Futures: Assessment of long-range Patterns and Problems Perspectives. Background Document of the Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Stockholm Environment Institute/United Nations. (1997)
Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice. First Report of the Global Scenario Group. (1997)
