Oil Shockwave
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The Oil Shockwave event is a policy wargaming scenario created by the joint effort of several energy policy think tanks, the National Commission on Energy Policy and Securing America's Future Energy. It outlines a series of hypothetical international events that take place in December 2005, all relating to world supply and demand of petroleum. Participants in the scenario role play Presidential Cabinet officials, who are asked to discuss and respond to these events, which include civil unrest in OPEC country Nigeria, and coordinated terrorist attacks on ports in Saudi Arabia and Alaska. In the original simulation, the participants had all previously held jobs closely related to their roles in the exercise.
Jason Grumet, from the National Commission on Energy Policy, on the message of the simulation:
"Very modest disruptions in oil supply, whether they're here at home or abroad can have truly devastating impacts on our nations economy and our overall security."
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[edit] Details of the Scenario
The original event was performed in mid-2005, and takes place six months into the future, in December 2005.
The first scenario involves civil unrest in Nigeria, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. This civil unrest causes oil companies and the US government to evacuate their personnel from the country. The decrease in oil supply and the resulting price spike causes a wash of negative effects on the United States economy.
More events follow as the scenario progresses, including a very cold winter in the Northern hemisphere, and terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabian and Alaskan oil ports. Cells from the Al-Qaeda network of terrorists hijack oil tankers and crash them into the docking facilities at the ports, effectively shutting down the port for weeks, if not months.
The scenarios are set up by pre-produced news clips from scripted news broadcasts. Participants are also given briefing memos with background information relating to their specific cabinet positions. The participants discuss and prepare policy recommendations for an unseen Chief Executive after each part of the scenario.
[edit] Original Participants
The original event was a one-time exercise and used participants that held positions that were identical or closely-related to their positions in the simulation. Participants included former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Carol Browner, former Director of Central Intelligence Robert Gates, former Marine Corps Commendant and member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General P.X. Kelley USMC (Ret.), and former National Economic Advisor to the President, Gene Sperling.
These participants were obviously chosen because they were seen as highly qualified to present realistic reactions by Cabinet members to hypothetical scenarios. The full list of participants is available here.
[edit] Future Events
The Oil Shockwave event is currently being developed for use in a localized, repeatable format.
