New Brunswick general election, 1991

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Results of the 1991 election

The 1991 election in the Canadian province of New Brunswick was difficult to predict from the outset.

Though Frank McKenna's Liberals were expected to win a second term after sweeping all 58 seats in 1987, any of the other three parties were considered contenders for official opposition.

The New Democratic Party was led by Elizabeth Weir, who had been the strongest and most consistent voice of opposition to the Liberals since her election as party leader in 1988. In the ensuing three years, thanks to the lack of opposition members in the legislature (MLAs), her firebrand style had made her a well-known name in New Brunswick politics.

The fledgling Confederation of Regions Party had been created out of the ashes of the Hatfield Tories when the latter went from majority government to zero seats in 1987. CoR was running numerous former Tory MLAs and candidates, and even some former Tory cabinet ministers. Its base of support was in English-speaking regions of New Brunswick, where many conservatives had become alienated by Hatfield's close relationship with Acadians.

The Progressive Conservatives had been in power for the majority of years since confederation, and 17 straight years before 1987. Even so, the scandals of the final Hatfield years and the growing unpopularity of the federal Progressive Conservatives hindered their success. Additionally they had perceived internal problems having gone through four leaders since the last election: Hatfield, then two-year interim leader Malcolm MacLeod then Barbara Baird, and then Dennis Cochrane.

Alternate Results

The splitting of the right-wing vote in this election has often been cited as foreshadowing of what would come federally in Canada between the federal PC Party and the Reform Party of Canada. If the CoR and PC votes were combined that hypothetical party would not only have won the 8 CoR seats, and the 3 PC seats, but an additional 16 from the Liberals, leaving the Liberals with 30 seats, and this fictitious party with 27. A sample map of these results is provided below.

As expected, the Liberals won a large majority. Many were surprised that CoR formed the official opposition. Though they ran even with the PCs in popular vote, their concentration of support in rural anglophone ridings gave them considerably more seats. Weir's personal popularity and name recognition was not enough to give her party more seats as she, and the Tories, had votes relatively evenly spread around the province.

[edit] Results

Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular Vote
Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	1987	Dissolution	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change
	Liberal	Frank McKenna	58	58	58	46	-20.7%	193,890	47.11%	-13.28%
	Confederation of Regions	Arch Pafford	48	*	-	8	-	87,256	21.2%	*
	Progressive Conservative	Dennis Cochrane	58	-	-	3	-	85,210	20.7%	-7.89%
	New Democratic	Elizabeth Weir	58	-	-	1	-	44,384	10.78%	+0.23%
	Independents		2	-	-	-	-	850	0.21%	-0.26%
***	Total		224	58	58	58	-	411,590	100.0%	+0.75%