Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005

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Main article: New South Wales general election, 2007

The Mackerras New South Wales election pendulum, 2005 shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the New South Wales general election, 2007. The table shows seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum. The figures have been calculated on the basis of a redistribution completed in 2005.

A uniform swing against the incumbent Australian Labor Party government would deliver seats on the left of the table to the opposition Liberal and National parties. A swing in the government's favour would deliver seats on the right of the table to Labor.

MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election.

Contents

[edit] Very safe seats

District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Port Maccquarie Rob Oakeshott[1] Independent 31.9%
Cabramatta Reba Meagher Labor 31.8%
Marrickville Carmel Tebbutt[2] Labor 31.6%
Liverpool Paul Lynch Labor 30.8%
Northern Tablelands Richard Torbay[3] Independent 30.0%
Lakemba Morris Iemma Labor 28.8%
Canterbury Linda Burney Labor 27.6%
Wollongong Noreen Hay Labor 27.4%
Shellharbour[4] Marianne Saliba Labor 27.0%
Mount Druitt Richard Amery Labor 26.8%
Auburn Barbara Perry Labor 26.5%
Bankstown Tony Stewart Labor 26.4%
Fairfield Joe Tripodi Labor 26.0%
Smithfield Carl Scully Labor 25.9%
Blacktown Paul Gibson Labor 24.9%
Keira David Campbell Labor 24.0%
Heffron Kristina Keneally Labor 23.9%
Maroubra Michael Daley Labor 23.5%
Macquarie Fields Steven Chaytor Labor 22.6% Albury Greg Aplin Liberal 22.5%
Wallsend John Mills Labor 20.1% Davidson Andrew Humpherson Liberal 20.9%


[edit] Safe seats

District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Campbelltown Graham West Labor 19.6%
Granville Kim Yeadon Labor 19.4%
Kogarah Cherie Burton Labor 19.3%
East Hills Alan Ashton Labor 18.6%
Cessnock Kerry Hickey Labor 18.5%
Balmain[5] Sandra Nori[6] Labor 17.6%
Swansea Vacant[7] Labor 17.1%
Toongabbie Pam Allan[8] Labor 16.7%
Mulgoa Diane Beamer Labor 16.6%
Rockdale Frank Sartor Labor 16.0%
Newcastle Bryce Gaudry Labor[9] 15.4% Murrumbidgee Adrian Piccoli National 18.9%
Strathfield Virginia Judge Labor 14.9% Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell Liberal 18.8%
Blue Mountains Bob Debus Labor 14.8% Sydney Clover Moore[10] Independent 15.0%
Ryde John Watkins Labor 14.7% Barwon Ian Slack-Smith National 14.7%
Oatley[11] Kevin Greene Labor 14.2% Hawkesbury Steven Pringle Liberal[12] 14.6%
Parramatta Tanya Gadiel Labor 13.5% Myall Lakes John Turner National 13.9%
Bathurst Gerard Martin Labor 13.4% Wakehurst Brad Hazzard Liberal 13.2%
Charlestown Matthew Morris Labor 13.3% Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire Liberal 12.7%
Coogee Paul Pearce Labor 13.2% Burrinjuck Katrina Hodgkinson National 12.4%
Riverstone John Aquilina Labor 13.1% North Shore Jillian Skinner Liberal 12.3%
Heathcote Paul McLeay Labor 12.3% Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser National 11.9%
Wyong Paul Crittenden Labor 12.2% Vaucluse Peter Debnam Liberal 10.9%
Lake Macquarie Jeff Hunter Labor 11.6% Castle Hill[13] Michael Richardson Liberal 10.8%


[edit] Fairly safe seats

District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Maitland John Price Labor 9.8%
The Entrance Grant McBride Labor 9.6%
Miranda Barry Collier Labor 8.9%
Drummoyne Angela D'Amore Labor 8.8%
Menai Alison Megarrity Labor 8.4% Oxley Andrew Stoner National 9.7%
Camden Geoff Corrigan Labor 8.3% Ballina Don Page National 9.1%
Londonderry Allan Shearan Labor 8.2% Cronulla Malcolm Kerr Liberal 8.6%
Gosford Marie Andrews[14] Labor 8.2% Lismore Thomas George National 8.1%
Kiama Matt Brown Labor 8.1% Epping Andrew Tink Liberal 7.6%
Port Stephens John Bartlett Labor 7.2% Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian Liberal 7.4%
Penrith Karyn Paluzzano Labor 6.6% Upper Hunter George Souris National 7.2%


[edit] Marginal seats

District Member Party Margin District Member Party Margin
Orange Russell Turner National 5.9%
Clarence Steve Cansdell National 5.3%
Bega Andrew Constance Liberal 4.7%
Pittwater Alex McTaggart[15] Independent 5.4% Goulburn Peta Seaton[16] Liberal 4.5%
Wollondilly New seat Labor 4.6% Hornsby Judy Hopwood Liberal 4.2%
Monaro Steve Whan Labor 4.4% Baulkham Hills Wayne Merton Liberal 4.0%
Tweed Neville Newell Labor 4.0% Lane Cove Anthony Roberts Liberal 2.8%
Tamworth Peter Draper[17] Independent 1.9% South Coast Shelley Hancock Liberal 1.6%
Manly David Barr[18] Independent 1.2% Murray-Darling Peter Black[19] Labor -1.4%
Dubbo Dawn Fardell[20] Independent 0.3% Terrigal[21] Chris Hartcher Liberal 0.6%


[edit] Independents

A version of the table published in The Australian on February 19, 2007 [1] showed all seats as effectively Coalition or Labor depending on the favoured major party among the electorate's voters. On this interpretation, Clover Moore's seat of Sydney is shown on the government side, alone among the seven sitting independents.

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Nationals
  2. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred result against Greens, who polled second, was 10.0%
  3. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Nationals
  4. ^ Seat formerly known as Illawarra
  5. ^ Seat formerly known as Port Jackson
  6. ^ Two-candidate preferred margin to Liberals shown. Two-candidate preferred margin to Greens, who polled second in this electorate, is 7.1%
  7. ^ Seat formerly held by Milton Orkopoulos. No by-election held after MP's resignation.
  8. ^ Allen held now-abolished district of Wentworthville, but is not running again.
  9. ^ Gaudry is recontesting the seat as an independent
  10. ^ Margin to ALP shown
  11. ^ Seat formerly known as Georges River
  12. ^ Pringle is recontesting the seat as an independent
  13. ^ Electorate formerly known as The Hills
  14. ^ Andrews currently represents the now-abolished seat of Peats
  15. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Liberal Party
  16. ^ Seaton represented the now-abolished seat of Southern Highlands
  17. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against National Party
  18. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against Liberal Party
  19. ^ Notional National Party seat
  20. ^ Two-candidate preferred result against National Party
  21. ^ Seat formerly known as Gosford
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