Template talk:Leading tropical cyclones
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[edit] Thoughts
Should we really consider the S-Atl, given there's no official warning centre? All measurements are unofficial, I'm not convinced we should add it. For the other basins, you'd need to check to make suree no errors have been committed, but I can confirm Ioke.
Chacor, At this stage, it would be perfectly fine to say Ioke had the lowest estimated (not measured) pressure in the Central Pacific. The hurricane forecaster responsible for reviewing the Ioke information and producing the final best track is still working on things (we have a 90 day deadline after the storm ends to get that produced). I haven't seen any additional information which would greatly alter the 920mb estimates we carried for Ioke at her peak. Hope this helps.
– Chacor 02:34, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- Wilma, Linda, and Tip shouldn't need confirmation, since they were the strongest tropical cyclones in their given basins. It's just the others that might prove to be a pain. As for Catarina, I don't think there's any harm in keeping it (it is the only individual South Atlantic cyclone for which we have an article, and it was clearly stronger than the few other cyclones there, official or not). --Coredesat talk! 03:34, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
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- I did some fact policing. Mala had just 115 kt winds. 5B in 1999 and 2B in 1991 both had 140 kt winds. 5B had an estimated pressure of 898 mbar. 2B, it depends on who you ask. JTWC says 898, but I've heard 900 and 902 as well. With Gafilo, it depends on the segment of ocean we're talking about here. In 1995, Cyclone Daryl reached an intensity of 150 kt, 885 mb. That seems to be the record. Gafilo was 140 kt, 898 mb. The rest of it looks good. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:34, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- Are those pressures given by the RSMCs or the JTWC? This template uses RSMC data. The official pressure I have for 05B is 912 mbar, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has Cyclone Orson as the strongest in their area at 905 mbar [1] (which would tie it with Monica). --Coredesat talk! 03:44, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- I use JTWC, they have better equipment, and they've been forecasting for 60 years. I don't know where the local RSMCs get their pressures. I never have trusted those local prediction centers. They've made too many wild predictions for my liking (I once saw a storm named by an Australian office that looked like a bunch of scattered thunderstorms with no circulation whatsoever). The 900 and 902 for the 1991 storm came from instruments on land. I've heard the 912 figure for the 1999 storm. It was recorded by a land station in India at the time of landfall. Problem is that 5B had weakened slightly by that time. The reading on Cyclone Orson is from a reconaissance plane and I trust that reading. JTWC uses satellite conversions for its figures and I understand how people could so easily discredit those readings. 912 sounds accurate for us Atlantic bums, but it sounds high for an eastern hemisphere storm. Storms in the West Pacifc and Indian Oceans are fed by monsoon troughs that lower the pressure gradient, so storms in those regions would have a lower pressure than a storm of the same wind speed in the Atlantic. So 898 sounds more reasonable. Is it an actual reading from some instrument in the heart of the storm? No. But it's a very educated analysis. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 04:36, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- The problem with the JTWC is that they are not degreed meteorologists. They are sailors who are taught how to read the models, and their forecasts are only for U.S. military interests and not the general public. The JTWC does not use recon (anymore), ship observations, or buoys to collect data on the storms - they just interpret the Dvorak numbers from various agencies and read the models, and more often than not they just go with the models and plot out a forecast track right in the middle of them without taking outliers into consideration (for instance, they use the TCLAPS Australian model for their WPAC forecasts, and the TCLAPS is a horrible model in that area). Whether we agree with them or not, the only official numbers sanctioned by the WMO are from the local RSMCs (whether their winds are 10-minute or 1-minute averages, or whether their pressures are higher or lower than what Dvorak would have one think). We can acknowledge the JTWC numbers, but they're not official. --Coredesat talk! 05:31, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- Well then, where do I find the more accurate numbers in 1 min mean, which is all understand or accept. Where are these buoy readings, land station readings and other numbers that are said to be more accurate than those of JTWC, because I haven't found them and I've been to those RSMC websites. Where are the historical arcives going back to 1945 with those more accurate readings? I would like to see them. I'm not being at all sarcastic, I really would like to see these better numbers because I haven't found them. Buoys and land stations are far from flawless, NHC would be the first to tell you that. Hurricane hunter planes are really the best way to find out the intensity of the storm. Do any of these RSMCs use them? That inconsistancy I mentioned with 912 pressure reading is legit. I think the idea that Gafilo was the strongest in the "Madagasgar region" (whatever that is) needs to be looked at more closely. Not all giants occured between 1995 and now as the global warming nutbags would have you believe. And what about 05B? If that 912 reading is correct (big 'if'), then the 1991 storm probably wins with those 900 and 902 readings I found on one of those RSMC websites you guys like. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:04, 22 September 2006 (UTC)
- JTWC doesn't do recon missions, and hasn't done them in years. Their winds and pressures are purely based on Dvorak conversions and estimation (before the Dvorak technique was introduced). Also, there are disclaimers on the JTWC website that state that they are unofficial and for Department of Defense use only, and to refer to the official RSMCs for more information (there is also one that states that older data may be suspect). JTWC/NRL data is only used when there is no other information available on a given storm. --Coredesat talk! 19:44, 22 September 2006 (UTC)
- Well then, where do I find the more accurate numbers in 1 min mean, which is all understand or accept. Where are these buoy readings, land station readings and other numbers that are said to be more accurate than those of JTWC, because I haven't found them and I've been to those RSMC websites. Where are the historical arcives going back to 1945 with those more accurate readings? I would like to see them. I'm not being at all sarcastic, I really would like to see these better numbers because I haven't found them. Buoys and land stations are far from flawless, NHC would be the first to tell you that. Hurricane hunter planes are really the best way to find out the intensity of the storm. Do any of these RSMCs use them? That inconsistancy I mentioned with 912 pressure reading is legit. I think the idea that Gafilo was the strongest in the "Madagasgar region" (whatever that is) needs to be looked at more closely. Not all giants occured between 1995 and now as the global warming nutbags would have you believe. And what about 05B? If that 912 reading is correct (big 'if'), then the 1991 storm probably wins with those 900 and 902 readings I found on one of those RSMC websites you guys like. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 18:04, 22 September 2006 (UTC)
- The problem with the JTWC is that they are not degreed meteorologists. They are sailors who are taught how to read the models, and their forecasts are only for U.S. military interests and not the general public. The JTWC does not use recon (anymore), ship observations, or buoys to collect data on the storms - they just interpret the Dvorak numbers from various agencies and read the models, and more often than not they just go with the models and plot out a forecast track right in the middle of them without taking outliers into consideration (for instance, they use the TCLAPS Australian model for their WPAC forecasts, and the TCLAPS is a horrible model in that area). Whether we agree with them or not, the only official numbers sanctioned by the WMO are from the local RSMCs (whether their winds are 10-minute or 1-minute averages, or whether their pressures are higher or lower than what Dvorak would have one think). We can acknowledge the JTWC numbers, but they're not official. --Coredesat talk! 05:31, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- I use JTWC, they have better equipment, and they've been forecasting for 60 years. I don't know where the local RSMCs get their pressures. I never have trusted those local prediction centers. They've made too many wild predictions for my liking (I once saw a storm named by an Australian office that looked like a bunch of scattered thunderstorms with no circulation whatsoever). The 900 and 902 for the 1991 storm came from instruments on land. I've heard the 912 figure for the 1999 storm. It was recorded by a land station in India at the time of landfall. Problem is that 5B had weakened slightly by that time. The reading on Cyclone Orson is from a reconaissance plane and I trust that reading. JTWC uses satellite conversions for its figures and I understand how people could so easily discredit those readings. 912 sounds accurate for us Atlantic bums, but it sounds high for an eastern hemisphere storm. Storms in the West Pacifc and Indian Oceans are fed by monsoon troughs that lower the pressure gradient, so storms in those regions would have a lower pressure than a storm of the same wind speed in the Atlantic. So 898 sounds more reasonable. Is it an actual reading from some instrument in the heart of the storm? No. But it's a very educated analysis. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 04:36, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- Are those pressures given by the RSMCs or the JTWC? This template uses RSMC data. The official pressure I have for 05B is 912 mbar, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has Cyclone Orson as the strongest in their area at 905 mbar [1] (which would tie it with Monica). --Coredesat talk! 03:44, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
- I did some fact policing. Mala had just 115 kt winds. 5B in 1999 and 2B in 1991 both had 140 kt winds. 5B had an estimated pressure of 898 mbar. 2B, it depends on who you ask. JTWC says 898, but I've heard 900 and 902 as well. With Gafilo, it depends on the segment of ocean we're talking about here. In 1995, Cyclone Daryl reached an intensity of 150 kt, 885 mb. That seems to be the record. Gafilo was 140 kt, 898 mb. The rest of it looks good. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:34, 19 September 2006 (UTC)
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- Dude, did you even read a word of my last post, because what you just said there had absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I asked where are the better numbers? Since JTWC doesn't have them, where are the better figures written in a way that I can understand them? Where are the extensive archives with this more accurate info? Where's the best track data? Where's the report from the land station? Where's the feed from the buoy? Do these RSMCs use recon planes? Does JMA? I don't just trust American agencies, by the way. I trust JMA for the most part, PASAGA, the Chinese and I think the Indians are starting to come around. I think you need to read my previous post again because what you said had nothing to do with it. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 04:16, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
- The first thing Eric, is I'd suggest you learn how to convert 10 minute to 1 minute (in your mind). There are enough links about it scattered throughout the WPac talk pages - 2003 Pacific typhoon season springs to mind. Its only the Americans who use recon. As for more accurate data its not that but its more correct data, look in the External links in List of named tropical cyclones. Converting to 1-minute is an exercise left to the reader.--Nilfanion (talk) 08:19, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
- Dude, did you even read a word of my last post, because what you just said there had absolutely nothing to do with what I said. I asked where are the better numbers? Since JTWC doesn't have them, where are the better figures written in a way that I can understand them? Where are the extensive archives with this more accurate info? Where's the best track data? Where's the report from the land station? Where's the feed from the buoy? Do these RSMCs use recon planes? Does JMA? I don't just trust American agencies, by the way. I trust JMA for the most part, PASAGA, the Chinese and I think the Indians are starting to come around. I think you need to read my previous post again because what you said had nothing to do with it. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 04:16, 24 September 2006 (UTC)
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[edit] Thanks
Regarding the comments here, the reason I made the template is to answer the somewhat ambiguous question of what was the strongest storm, and where (thank you fact police for checking on things). A secondary interest is to observe development trends: almost all of the members of this list fall within the last 9 years of development, and 3 in the past 11 months. At this point, I would surmise the next step would be to verify nothing older beats whats already been verified, and fill in missing regional gaps (I recall hearing of a hurricane forming south of Alaska, but cannot find it). Cwolfsheep 05:18, 20 September 2006 (UTC)
[edit] Australia
I've changed the strongest cyclone to Cyclone Inigo. Cyclone Monica's official lowest pressure from BoM was 905 hPa, but Inigo's lowest pressure was 900 hPa. If you're in doubt, please see Gary Padgett's track data in australiansevereweather.com. If you find another cyclone with a lower pressure than Inigo's, feel free to change it! RaNdOm26 09:49, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
- Uhm, Padgett uses JTWC data. Unless BOM confirms Inigo was stronger than Monica, it should say Monica. – Chacor 09:50, 28 September 2006 (UTC)
Hmmmm, OK, I am going to change the word Madagascar to South Indian. "Madagascar" sounds a bit to specialised, whereas South Indian covers much more area of the ocean. :) RaNdOm26 11:14, 29 September 2006 (UTC)
[edit] North Indian
Shouldn't the lowest pressure in the North Indian be Typhoon Gay (1989) with 898 mbar? That's much lower than <912 mbar. But I just want to make sure. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 17:58, 30 September 2006 (UTC)
- Where did you obtain the pressure reading from???? RaNdOm26 08:16, 1 October 2006 (UTC)
- The Typhoon Gay article. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 23:07, 1 October 2006 (UTC)
