Talk:Krasnodar

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[edit] Total number of inhabitants

Someone put up a probably fictitious total number of inhabitants. Now, the number of inhabitants may have been under-counted in 2002 (646,175 in fact) because of illegal immigration into most Russian cities, but 780,000 inhabitants is nowhere to be found in serious publications.

According to the Russian Moj Gorod encyclopedia, based itself on figures from the town administration, which in this case may perhaps be more trustworthy than the census, the real figure is 710,000. So I corrected that. See http://www.mojgorod.ru/krasnod_kraj/krasnodar/index.html --Pan Gerwazy 14:22, 22 February 2007 (UTC)

The problem with Moj Gorod is that they aren't very good at citing their sources. They are a great resource for putting an initial stub together, but I would recommend against relying on any numbers they provide. Anyway, the Census data obviously must be present in the article as it is an easiy verifiable number which is consistent across all Russian locations (same date frame, same methodology). Any other estimate should ideally be referenced. Thanks.—Ëzhiki (Igels Hérissonovich Ïzhakoff-Amursky) • (yo?); 15:19, 22 February 2007 (UTC)

Privet. Well, I did NOT delete the census figure - that would have been vandalism. Perhaps the versions in other languages (and that includes the Russian one!) should stress the census figure a bit more. You're right, of course. I see now (checking in Yandex) that usually "okolo" (about) 780-800 thousand is what the present town administration claims. However, this number is dubious, as some of the same sources dare to claim that the 2002 census gave 791,000 inhabitants - a verifiably incorrect figure. Unless the town since 2002 has annexed some suburb making up this 145,000 difference (and I could not find anything to support that) - I would quote only the census and Moj Gorod figures (not because they are intrinsically better, but because they are more moderate and paint a more believable picture) - if only we could find what they base their figure on. Maybe they work back from 2002 and add the migration and demography pattern provided by the twon's administration?

I did read somewhere that one of the last 5-year plans before Gorbachov foresaw ... 850,000 inhabitants in Krasnodar by 2000. Did they start building a lot of appartments which are now been squatted in? Does the town administration have serious reasons to believe the census was very wrong, or are they living in cloud cuckoo land?

OK, that is my way of viewing things. Probably a silly rant by someone who has no idea, but there you have it. On a side note, anyone who looks at the ethnic composition of Krasnodar region according to the English version of the census, will have to be careful. In Excel there are two columns headed Krasnodar Region. The first one in fact gives the ethnic figures for ... Chechnya. --Pan Gerwazy 22:03, 22 February 2007 (UTC)

Well, the incorrect 2002 figures are probably just 2002 estimates gathered before the Census results became available. It's hard to say why the discrepancy is so huge, though, but it could easily be a result of accumulation of errors since 1989; plus, illegal immigration is not something that can be accounted for very easily, even with the Census methods. Also, the way Russians do things I suspect nobody actually took time to verify the estimates they report. It's all strictly speculation, of course. So far, the Census numbers are the only ones which are verifiable, and for which the methodology is known. How the "estimates" are being performed, I don't know—I am yet to see a serious publication about this. All I know is that they factor birth and death statistics, as well as numbers for legal and reported migration, but even with these numbers the room for error is significant.

As for the apartments, I don't think they have empty ones just sitting there. Just because they planned to build them does not mean they actually built them :) They may have started, but with perestroika and general turmoil the construction all but stopped in the whole country by the beginning of the 1990s.

Don't know if all this helps you any. If I find anything interesting (about Krasnodar or in general) on this topic, I'll let you know.—Ëzhiki (Igels Hérissonovich Ïzhakoff-Amursky) • (yo?); 15:29, 23 February 2007 (UTC)