Talk:Jevons paradox

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Contents 1 Question about the corollary 2 A Corollary to the Jevons Paradox (utter garbage) 3 Corollary only appears on Wikipedia 4 How is this even called a paradox? 5 It's more of a Catch-22. 6 When Jevon's Paradox Fails 7 Link to efficiency in second paragraph

[edit] Question about the corollary

As far as the example in the article goes I have a question, the 2 additional workers hired by this hypothetical environmentally efficient company use up more energy by commuting only if they were unemployed previously? If they commuted the same distance to their previous job then there is no net increase in energy loss/inefficiency, right? What if these two new employees discover an even greater efficiency? Is this paradox basically saying that any efficiency has to be ubiquitous to really help long term? I think this article needs more info and clarity. zen master T 01:23, 18 Mar 2005 (UTC)

I agree and would like to see the article be much longer. You are correct in your statement that Jevon's paradox implies that the efficiency of overall systems is far more important than individual systems, but it goes one step further. What it is saying is that the economy can now support two new additional workers that could not have been supported before because of the cost savings from using alternative energy. When there is cost savings the economy will expand to consume the conserved resources and the net result will be increased consumption. John187 17:08, 18 Mar 2005 (UTC)

Is this Jevons paradox definitely true or just likely? What are the implications? Is it implying things like fuel efficiency must be mandated by law for any efficiency to work globally? Is it saying that in an environment of decreasing energy supplies any localized energy efficiency won't help overall? Does this paradox only exist when the global economy or certain local economies are expanding or trying to expand? If I had to guess I think this paradox disappears when economic expansion in the traditional sense is replaced with a concept of using increased efficiencies to maintain the status quo of economic output but with less and less energy, rather than trying to expand. This sounds vaguely similar to Steady State economic theory, but I don't know enough about that either. Is there a wikipedia article on that? zen master T 18:37, 18 Mar 2005 (UTC)

It's just speculation and conjecture. Jevon noticed that the consumption of coal skyrocketed after the introduction of the Watt steam engine, which very efficiently converted the coal into work. Rather than old technology which were too expensive to use, the Watt engine made coal burning useful on a mass scale. So despite the fact that the Watt engine was far more energy efficient (think hydrogen fuel cells, solar power, wind energy ...) than previous technology, coal consumption actually sky rocketed. I have wondered if there is a way to relate this idea to the 2nd law of thermodynamics, but havn't come up with a good way yet. Still, I have to admit that when I read Jevon I do get a kind of hint at the concepts of energy conservation (physics) and entropy. In particular the idea that energy consumption will either be the same or will increase strikes me as the same statement as the 2nd law. In physics the second law results from the fact that a gas must grow to consume the entire volume that contains it. The gas can't live in half the jar, that would be crazy, it fills the whole thing, so we end up with entropy. The question in economics is if people can live in half the jar or if we fill up the whole damn thing. So far, and based on Jevon's paradox, it looks like we want to fill up the whole thing, or use all the available energy as much as possible, but I suppose there are those that hope we may eventually learn to subsist in half the jar. Wish I could answer this question. John187 03:57, 19 Mar 2005 (UTC)

I have doubts about the whole corollary section. First, I cannot see a clear statement of what is the corollary. Second, I think the example is not particularly clear, and a different example might be better. But something about this is still continuing: since 1973, industrialised countries have substantially increased their energy efficiency, and this has helped economic growth, meaning we now consume more energy despite a sharply reduced enegy intensity.

The Corollary is confusing and nonsensical. I'm new to wikipedia so i wont do it, but i'll say that it ruins the article. Also, can't Jevons paradox be applied to labor/wages? (ie as a refutation to marxist "wage slavery"). Marxists believe that increased industrial efficiency would mean perpetually decreasing demand for labor and therefore perpetually decreasing wages- Jevons paradox, if applied to labor, would indicate that as industrial efficiency increases, the demand for labor actually increases because increases in demand for product outstrips increased productivity. I've always that this was a better application of jevons paradox.

I too would like to see an expansion of this article (but also won't be the one to write it) and I'd like to know more about how this can effect overall efficiency efforts. Cars, for instance, appear to be driven more the less is spent on gasoline and hence hybrids may have less efficiency than the raw numbers would suggest. But the amount of use my TV and computer get have almost nothing to do with their power consumption. When does Jevon's paradox apply and when doesn't it? When does greater efficiency result in increased energy usage and when does Jevon's paradox merely result in a drag on efficiency?

[edit] A Corollary to the Jevons Paradox (utter garbage)

Localized solutions to global problems often confound the solution of the overall problem. Jevons paradox implies that as individuals become increasingly efficient, the overall economy will compensate by supporting additional individuals and increasing overall consumption.

For example, consider a green business which attempts to alleviate global environmental concerns by consuming renewable energy resources. If the business saves 10 units of energy from the local power plant which operates at 40% efficiency, they will save 1000 units of currency. This cost savings will allow the business to hire an additional two employees.

However, each of these two employees must commute to work in automobiles. These automobiles still consume 10 units of energy because they operate at only 15% energy efficiency. Thus by switching to renewable energy, the business has reduced the overall energy efficiency per unit of consumed resources from 40% to 15%.

By first saving money, then using it to hire two new employees, the green business has actually expanded the economy. The expansion of the economy will most likely result in an overall increase in energy consumption, which in the example above also shows the possibility of reducing energy efficiency by its effects in the wider community.

This paradox illustrates how difficult it is to solve global economic problems.

---

Questions:

1) Why does the automobile consumes exactly 10 units of energy, which is exactly the amount saved by the factory?

2) Why does 1 unit of energy cost 100 unit of currency?

3) Why does the efficiency of total energy comsumption drop from 40% to 15% instead of 40% to 35% ? Is the energy efficiency inside the factory drop from 40% to 15% just because two new employees drive to work?

4) Why the assumption that the saving in energy in the factory is less than the energy consumption of two extra automobiles?

Someone removed the corollary section only to have the whole article reverted. In an attempt to avoid a revert war, I've removed the example from the corollary section, but left a quick description of what the alleged corollary is. The example was garbage that looked like it had just been made up without any real analysis behind it. If someone can come up with an example that can withstand scrutiny, please post it to the talk page first so it can be critiqued first. --Flatline 19:36, August 3, 2005 (UTC)

Seems like there is confusion around the word "paradox", perhaps we should retitle this article to something like Jevon's theory or something like energy efficiency paradox which seems like a more accurate way of describing Jevon's theories? A "paradox" does kind of exist in the sense that increased efficiency actually can make society overall less efficient when it comes to using resources in absolute terms, right? zen master T 19:46, 3 August 2005 (UTC)

"Jevons paradox" is the phrase used in economics. HGB 01:54, 10 August 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Corollary only appears on Wikipedia

I've just spent some time googling for the alleged corollary of Jevons paradox and didn't find any mention of it at all. The only hits on Google were Wikipedia and sites that scrape Wikipedia content. If the corollary were part of the normal discussion of Jevons paradox, then it might have a place in the article, but since it doesn't appear to be part of the normal discussion, I'm going to remove it from the article. If someone comes up with some references to the alleged corollary (outside of the Wikipedia article and sites that scraped the article), then we can discuss adding the corollary section back into the article. --Flatline 00:35, 24 August 2005 (UTC)

[edit] How is this even called a paradox?

Economists have held, since the very beginning, that an increase in supply inceases the quantity supplied and decreases the price. An increase in efficiency means an increase in supply, so of course more will be consumed. This doesn't contradict any intuition and hence is not a paradox. MrVoluntarist 20:43, 4 September 2005 (UTC)

Your analysis seems oversimplified to me. By increasing efficiency, the amount of fuel consumed for the same amount of work decreases (at the same time reducing cost of said work and reducing demand for the fuel). Overall consumption increases if and only if the reduction consumed by current applications is less than the fuel consumed by new applications made viable by the reduction in fuel costs.

Right. Hence, not a paradox. It's what basic economic theory predicts. MrVoluntarist 17:03, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Should we add an ecomonic analysis to the article? --Flatline 11:55, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Sure. And I know we can't do original research, but he arguments against it being a paradox can be a bit more prominent. MrVoluntarist 17:03, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

I made some changes to make clearer that it's an observation and has no predictive power of its own. Please take a look at it to make sure that I didn't introduce any factual errors or overstate anything. Also, I didn't bother to include any wiki-links, so feel free to add links back in as appropriate. --Flatline 19:12, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

I like your changes. If I think of anything that can improve it, I'll add it. MrVoluntarist 19:43, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Here is why it is called a paradox, though I would concede it isn't exactly the right word. The theory supports the Malthusian argument that humans will eventually destroy themselves, or at least severely degrade their standard of living, by consuming all available natural resources. One of the earliest anti-Malthusian arguments was that increased efficiency could help solve the problem by making available resources last longer. Jevon's Paradox points out that increased efficiency has the opposite of the assumed effect - that it increases, rather than decreases, the rate of depletion. Sevenwarlocks 17:39, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

[edit] It's more of a Catch-22.

The purpose of efficiency is to reduce consumption. However efficiency improvements historically lead to additional consumption over the long term. So by attempting to reduce the consumption, it actually increases.

I disagree. The primary purpose of increased efficiency is to reduce costs. To draw any conclusions about long term consumption without more carefully looking at the context is premature. --Flatline 12:00, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Increased efficiency does reduce costs, but it does so by decreasing the quantity of energy use. So it achieves cost reduction through consumption reduction.

You're confusing the goal with the means. The goal is to reduce costs. Often, but not always, the means is to reduce fuel consumption.

For example, if an engine could be built that required no maintanence ever, but consumed twice the fuel, there are people who would switch to it in a heartbeat even though it's less efficient. This is because for some applications, maintanence is a bigger expense than fuel.

Alternatively, if an engine was developed that burned half the fuel, but cost significantly more to manufacture, people would only be interested if it ran long enough and maintanence was cheap enough that the efficiency gains would eventually pay for the difference between the new engine and a conventional one. If the engine was too expensive to maintain or would fail irrepairably before the break-even point, nobody would buy it even though its use would reduce consumption. --Flatline 20:09, 4 November 2005 (UTC)

Does this "cost analysis" factor in the extra polution "costs" and need for extra fuel capacity and transoprtation "costs" that result from this twice as inefficient yet maintanence free engine? Costs to the comsumer or everyone are nevertheless costs, right? How do you reconcile fuel costs with say engine mechanic salary costs, are they truly comparable entities? zen master T 23:18, 4 November 2005 (UTC)

I think you are talking about the problem of externalities? --Mathish 16:00, 10 November 2005 (UTC)

Comparing fuel costs with engine mechanic salary costs is easy since with any mature engine design, efficiencies and maintenance schedules (including parts and downtime) are well known. All other costs are considered only if they are paid by the owner (for this is how all capital expense decisions are made). This includes any liability associated with the decision (for example, if a particular engine causes cancer in people close to it, you can be sure that that liability will have a cost assigned to it when the analysis is made. Same with pollution.). --Flatline 18:57, 10 November 2005 (UTC)

[edit] When Jevon's Paradox Fails

Jevon's Paradox fails when the price of energy is going up since conservation only enables you to keep the bills in place rather than lowering them so you have no additional money from saving energy to spend elsewhere on consuming energy.

It can also fail if all or most of the money from energy savings is invested into more energy efficiency.

In general, Jevons Paradox will only apply when the limiting factor in using a particular fuel is the cost of the fuel. Please note that for this to be true, there must be no superior substitutes for the fuel. --Flatline 13:56, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Link to efficiency in second paragraph

I've changed the link from efficiency from efficiency (economics) to just plan efficiency, since it's not really economic efficiency we're talking about here, rather the normal sense of being able to get a greater output for a given input. That is, more work for a given amount of fuel. (I wrote the original paragraph, and this is definately the meaning I intended.)

Since this page is also about economics, maybe we need to change the wording a bit so as to avoid any confusion that we could be talking about economic efficiency there?

--Mathish 10:42, 2 March 2006 (UTC)

I'm new to this so please excuse ant breaches of etiquette. I think it would be best to start again with something like the following:

Jevons Paradox

A proposition put forward by the economist William Stanley Jevons in his book 'The Coal Question' (1865). It asserts that greater efficiency in the use of any resource always increases consumption of it. As a hypothesis it is worthless: it explains nothing which cannot be explained fully by generally accepted economic theory and it cannot be tested because it is impossible to specify a time frame within which the increased consumption must take place.

Scepticc 23:22, 14 January 2007 (UTC)scepticc