User:Jamie C/2006 hurricane predictions
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My 2006 predictions... (which are already out of date)
[edit] Hurricane Alberto
Category 3 Hurricane, 115mph, 959mb
Forms May 12th just East of Barbados. Generally heads North West and strengthens, coming close to landfall in Guadeloupe as a category 1, but turns North at the last minute. Parallels the US East coast and rapidly strengthens to 115 mph before hitting cooler waters and transitioning to an extratropical cyclone while at category 2 strength on the 18th of May.
- Fatalities: 3 from a boat of the coast of Barbados
- Damages: Minimal
[edit] Tropical Depression 2
Tropical Depression, 25mph, 1010mb
Forms on the 16th of May Northeast of Puerto Rico. Quickly follows the same path of Alberto, but is absorbed into slow-moving Alberto's circulation on the 17th May.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damages: None
[edit] Tropical Depression Beryl
Tropical Depression, 35mph, 1000mb
Forms on the 3rd of June just Southeast of Texas, but loses circulation almost instantly. However, on the afternoon of the 4th of June regains tropical depression status and makes landfall in Texas. Originally beleived to be at tropical storm status, turns out to have been a TD its whole life.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: $1,000,000 from extensive flooding
[edit] Subtropical Depression 4
Subtropical Depression, 30mph, 1004mb
Forms on the same day as Beryl, off the Coast of Virginia and dissipates 6 hours later without landfall.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Chris
Category 5 Hurricane, 160mph, 921mb
Forms just East of Jamaica on the same day as Beryl and STD 4. Strengthens to tropical storm then makes landfall in Jamaica. On the 5th on June it enters the Gulf of Mexico and starts rapid intensification, briefly becoming a category 5, the earliest ever in the Atlantic. Then it makes Landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a Category 4. Over land, weakens to a tropical storm and makes a turn to the West, dissipating over Northern Kentucky on the 15th.
- Fatalities: 217 direct
- Damage: $14 billion
Hurricane Michael 2006
[edit] Tropical Depression 7
Tropical Depression, 30mph, 1004mb
Forms just South of Cuba on the 14th of June and almost immediately makes landfall. Dissipates 12 hours later.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: Minimal
[edit] Tropical Storm Ernesto
Tropical Storm, 65mph, 999mb
Forms on the 17th of June and generally follows the path of Debby. Expected to reach hurricane strength but suddenly weakens on the 19th and dissipates 6 hours later. Never a threat to land.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Florence
Category 1 Hurricane, 80mph, 981mb
Forms on the 1st of July in the Eastern Carribean. Heads West and strengthens to a hurricane, striking Cuba at peak strength on the 4th of July. Weakens to a tropical storm and returns to the Atlantic heading to the North North East. Nears the coast of Florida as a Storm. Regains hurricane strength and passes within 100nm of Cuba. Heads North, retaining hurricane strength, until it hits cold water and dissipates.
- Fatalities: 4 in Cuba, 1 in Bermuda
- Damage: $32 million mostly in Cuba, some in Florida and Bermuda.
[edit] Tropical Storm Gordon
Tropical Storm, 70mph, 986mb
The depression that would become Gordon formed on the 5th of July in the Bay of Campeche. On the 6th of July, the depression made landfall in Nicaragua, causing many deaths. Then, without strengthening, the storm move across the Carribean and makes second landfall in Haiti, causing even more deaths. After reaching the Atlantic, with hardly a circulation left, it started to strengthen and was named Gordon on the 12th of July. It reached its peak just off the North Carolina Outer Banks, and tropical storm winds were felt there. Then the storm went out into the open Atlantic and dissipated on the 21st of July.
- Fatalities: 301 in Nicaragua, 293 in Honduras, 2719 in Haiti and 1 in North Carolina.
- Damage: $15 billion, mostly in Haiti.
[edit] Hurricane Helene
Category 1 Hurricane, 75mph, 987mb
The first Cape Verde hurricane of the season forms on land in Senegal on the 9th of July. Exits land, strengthens to a storm and crosses through the Cape Verde islands without landfall. Starts on an average Cape Verde hurricane track but, halfway between Cape Verde and the Windward Islands encounters shear. Moves erratically for about 24 hours while weakening and finally dissipating on the 17th of July.
- Fatalities: 1 in the Gambia from heavy rain while over land and 2 in the Cape Verde Islands
- Damage: Minimal
[edit] Hurricane Isaac
Category 4 Hurricane, 145mph, 933mb
After a long lull period, the second Cape Verde hurricane forms on the 6th of August. Follows a typical Cape Verde track, reaching category 4 before transitioning to an incredibly powerful extratropical cyclone on the 16th. This cyclone, equivalent to a category 3 hurricane, spins harmlessly in the open Atlantic before dissipating on the 18th of August.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Joyce
Category 3 Hurricane, 120mph, 950mb
Forms 24 hours after Isaac and follows its path almost exactly, trailing just behind it, strengthening at a slightly slower rate than Isaac. However, on the 16th of August it was absorbed into the extratropical storm that used to be Isaac.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Kirk
Category 2 Hurricane, 100mph, 981mb
Forms in the Eastern Caribbean late on the 9th of August and quickly strengthens to a category 1 hurricane. Executes a complete loop, breifly reaching category 2 strength before returning to category 1 and crossing extreme Northern Venezuela. Over Venezuela, Kirk weakens to a 70mph tropical storm, and maintains this strength until 2nd landfall in Belize. Kirk weakens to a depression over the Yucatan, and then, as a depression, makes a 3rd landfall in Eastern Louisiana. The depression retains its identity until it reaches Southern Canada.
- Fatalities: 3 in Venezuela, 1 from rain from the edge of the storm in Haiti
- Damage: $102 million, mostly in Venezuela
[edit] Hurricane Leslie
Category 4 Hurricane, 150mph, 930mb
Leslie starts off as another storm in the chain of storms that began with Isaac on the 11th of August. Follows Joyce and rapidly strengthens. However, Nadine, the storm behind it in the chain, gets a little too close. Leslie and Nadine begin a Fujiwhara interaction. Leslie is sent speedily off towards Europe, weakening to a storm as it passes through the Azores. Then, still as a storm, Leslie turns East and crosses the Rock of Gibraltar. Then, Leslie enters the Mediterranean, unexpectly turns South and makes landfall in Algeria. Weakens to a depression almost instantly in Algeria, but retains tropical depression status until it reaches the Sahara and dissipates.
- Fatalities: 15 in Gibraltar
- Damage: $12 million, almost all in Gibraltar
[edit] Hurricane Michael
Category 5 Hurricane, 180mph, 893mb
The strongest storm of the season formed on the 13th of August South of the long chain of storms from Isaac. It travels East-Northeast and is expected to go into a fujiwhara interaction with one of the Isaac followers, but doesnt. Michael rapidly strengthens to a category 4 on its long trek across the Atlantic. It enters the Caribbean without landfall and reaches category 5 strength. It keeps this strength for 72 hours until it makes landfall in Nicaragua, still as a category 5. It exits land into the extreme Western Caribbean as a category 4, restrengthnes to a category 5 and makes landfall in Belize. Michael weakens to a category 3 over land, but leaves the Yucatan and restrengthens to a category 4 in the Gulf of Mexico. Turns towards New Orleans. Many are evacuated from the New Orleans area, but Michael completes a loop and heads towards Florida. Michael briefly reaches category 5 strength again, but weakens to category 4 before Florida landfall. Just before reaching the Atlantic, Michael turns to the North passing over Georgia and South Carolina. Over the Southeastern US, Michael weakens to a category 1. Michael then finally reaches the sea, weakens to a tropical storm and completes a sharp turn, making final landfall in North Carolina. Michael dissipates the next day over West Virginia.
- Fatalities: 3 in Costa Rica, 4310+ in Nicaragua, 2017 in Honduras, 79 in Belize, 12 in Mexico, 1 in Louisiana, 32 in Florida, 19 in Georgia, 16 in South Carolina, 4 in North Carolina and 1 in Virginia.
- Damage: $82 billion, just short of Katrina's record.
[edit] Tropical Depression 17
Tropical Depression, 25mph, 1004
The weakest Isaac follower forms on the 13th of August and is absorbed into TD16 (Nadine) 12 hours later.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Tropical Storm Nadine
Tropical Storm, 70mph, 984mb
Nadine will be the last Isaac follower. (All the Isaac followers, except Isaac, will be very small storms, so that this immense chain is possible) It forms on the 14th of August and absorbs TD17. Nadine started to rapidly strengthen, but goes into a Fujiwhara interaction with Leslie. This sends Nadine over colder waters, where it weakens and dissipates.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Oscar
Category 1 Hurricane, 75mph, 983mb
On the 19th of August, Oscar forms 100nm of Peurto Rico. It strengthens to a weak hurricane, then dissipates due to shear which covers most of the Atlantic in late August to early September. However, a remnant continues North, and on the 23rd of August, is redesignated Tropical Depression Oscar. This system makes landfall in Nova Scotia and dissipates.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: Minimal
[edit] Hurricane Patty
Category 1 Hurricane, 75mph, 979mb
After a long lull in activity due to shear, Patty forms in the mid-Atlantic on the 17th of September. It strengthens to its peak, which it maintains for 48 hours, then dissipates without ever threatening land.
- Fatalities: 0
- Damage: None
[edit] Hurricane Rafael
Category 5 Hurricane, 160mph, 912mb
Landfall: October Friday the 13th, makes landfall as a Category 5 around Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
