User:Jake52/2007 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

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Jake52/2007 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

First storm formed:	June 17, 2007
Last storm dissipated:	December 30, 2007
Strongest storm:	Noel-900 mbar, 190 mph
Total storms:	20
Major storms (Cat. 3+):	7
Total damage:	$89 billon
Total fatalities:	1099 Direct
Atlantic hurricane seasons 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2007, and lasted until November 30, 2007. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

The 2007 season was a very active season that saw 11 storms make landfall. The most notable storms of the season were Hurricanes Andrea, Felix, and Noel as well as Tropical Storm Ingrid. Hurricane Andrea formed early in the year and made landfall in Alabama as a Category 3 hurricane, causing moderate damage. Felix was a Category 5 hurricane that hit Bermuda and later hit Canada as a strong Category 1. The tropical depression that became Ingrid caused great loss of life in Mexico as well as heavy damage. Noel, the strongest storm of the season, rapidly intensified from a 1003 mbar depression to a 900 mbar hurricane in a 36 hour period. It made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Florida.

(Note: These are my predictions of 2007 and must not be taken seriously. The path maps are of awkward sizes because I had to custom make the maps without jdorge's Tracks program.)

Contents 1 Storms 1.1 Hurricane Andrea 1.2 Tropical Storm Barry 1.3 Hurricane Dean 1.4 Tropical Depression 5 1.5 Tropical Storm Erin 1.6 Hurricane Felix 1.7 Tropical Storm Gabrielle 1.8 Tropical Storm Humberto 1.9 Tropical Storm Ingrid 1.10 Tropical Deprssion 11 1.11 Tropical Deprssion 12 1.12 Hurricane Jerry 1.13 Hurricane Karen 1.14 Hurricane Lorenzo 1.15 Tropical Storm Melissa 1.16 Hurricane Noel 1.17 Hurricane Olga 1.18 Hurricane Pablo 1.19 Tropical Storm Rebekah 1.20 Tropical Depression 21 1.21 Hurricane Sebastian 1.22 Tropical Storm Tanya 1.23 Tropical Depression 24 1.24 Hurricane Van

[edit] Storms

[edit] Hurricane Andrea

Hurricane Andrea 3
Duration	June 17—June 24
Intensity	125 mph, 959 mbar

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on June 12. The wave moved uneventfully across the Atlantic until late on June 16, when the wave became better organized. Convection increased and the wave became Tropical Depression One just after entering the Carribean Sea on June 17. A lack of wind shear helped the depression to grow, becoming Tropical Storm Andrea on the 19th. Andrea continued to strengthen, becoming a Category 1 hurricane on the 20th and reaching major hurricane status the next day. Forecasts called for Andrea to weaken before making landfall in Alabama, but Andrea's forward speed suddenly increased from 9 mph to 20 mph, causing it to reach Alabama before weakening. It made landfall on June 23 with winds of 120 mph, dissipating the next day.

Andrea's increase in forward speed caught those on the Gulf Coast by surprise. Flooding from Andrea caused $450 million in damages and killed 25 people.

[edit] Tropical Storm Barry

Tropical Storm Barry TS
[[Image:|150px|]]
Duration	June 29—July 4
Intensity	60 mph, 996 mbar

An extratropical low north of the Bahamas drifted around for about a week before convection increased and it began acquiring tropical characteristics. By the 29th, the extratropical low had sufficient organization to be called Tropical Depression 2. The depression wandered around, becoming Barry later the next day. From then on out, Barry kept a mostly northward track. After reaching a peak of 60 mph winds on the 2nd, Barry slowly weakened, losing its circulation on the 4th.

No damage was reported in connection to Barry.

Hurricane Chantal

Winds:130mph Pressure:939mb Fatalities:170 Landfall:Cape May,New Jersey

[edit] Hurricane Dean

[edit] Tropical Depression 5

[edit] Tropical Storm Erin

[edit] Hurricane Felix

[edit] Tropical Storm Gabrielle

[edit] Tropical Storm Humberto

[edit] Tropical Storm Ingrid

[edit] Tropical Deprssion 11

[edit] Tropical Deprssion 12

[edit] Hurricane Jerry

[edit] Hurricane Karen

[edit] Hurricane Lorenzo

[edit] Tropical Storm Melissa

[edit] Hurricane Noel

[edit] Hurricane Olga

[edit] Hurricane Pablo

[edit] Tropical Storm Rebekah

[edit] Tropical Depression 21

[edit] Hurricane Sebastian

[edit] Tropical Storm Tanya

[edit] Tropical Depression 24

[edit] Hurricane Van

Hurricane Van 3
[[Image:|150px|]]
Duration	December 25—December 30
Intensity	115 mph, 960 mbar

Van, the final storm of the season, is noteworthy not only for the unusual formation, but for the debating of its status.

The storm that birthed Van was a polar low that existed around December 25. Suddenly, the low began taking on vaguely tropical characteristics. Around this time, NHC forecasters started debating on the current status of the system and decided to call it Subtropical Storm Van on the same day. Van continued to head and began a very unusual cycle of rapid deepening and, by the time the storm made landfall around Tasiilaq on December 30, it became a major hurricane. The storm dissipated only 6 hours after making landfall.

Van was an extremely unusual storm in that it didn't follow the examples of other polar lows. While not the first polar low to display characteristics of cyclones, it was the first to be named like cyclones. After the year ended, more debating continued as to whether Van was tropical or just looked the part. The TCR for Van indicated that the decision was to keep Van as a major hurricane.

UNDER CONSTRUCTION