Talk:Hurricane Ernesto (2006)

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[edit] School Closings in Florida

I don't know if this is really important, but schools in St. Lucie County, Florida are on early release for Tuesday August 29th, and are closed on Wednesday August 30th. Casey14 18:58, 28 August 2006 (UTC)

On a more widespread note, my girlfriend tipped me off to the fact Universities are closing. I was going to put this on the article page, but there's just too many for me to do. I'm hoping wikiality will prevail. http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/15380871.htm - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 21:00, 28 August 2006 (UTC)
Here's another site including some colleges and Martin/ West Palm/ and St. Lucie Counties. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/breaking/entries/schools/ Casey14 23:03, 28 August 2006 (UTC)
F.Y.I. all schools from Central Florida going south are out today. Also, all banks are closed. StormChaser666 16:36, 30 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Initialization

This should be its own article: a tropical storm/hurricane about to hit Jamaica and the NWS projecting a US landfall as a CAT3 hurricane? I'm a mergist and I say its time for the new article. Cwolfsheep 16:08, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

Not yet. Please see our reasoning at the main seasonal talk page. – Chacor 16:10, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
Discussion page alright then. Cwolfsheep 16:27, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

See here. :) – Chacor 16:30, 26 August 2006 (UTC).

[edit] Wikipedia

The people said on WP:VP/T said that Wikimedia is prepared. Latest track, according to The Weather Channel (I have Satellite TV) indicates it may affect the Wikimedia locale. Martial Law 06:57, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

Latest tracking data said it will hit Florida. Martial Law 02:13, 28 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Cautious

If I've missed anything, please fix or add it... I'm a regular reader but not a regular contributor to the hurricane season pages so I tried to do the best I could to update with the 5am and 5:04am advisories. - JVG 10:33, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Sig Figs

Significant figures dictates that 20 inches only signifies one or two significant digits, and thus the converted figure should be 500 mm (at the most precise, 510 mm). 508 is unfounded precision, the NHC isnt saying that they can expect exactly 508 mm, they are saying isolated amounts around 500 mm are possible. This amount of accuracy means nothing.

I may be rambling a bit, but i'll go get my first cup of coffee and see if i have a response :) -Runningonbrains 16:26, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

I always make it so that 1 inch = 25 mm on such estimates. If it is an actual measurement, then they should be exact to the ones digit IMO (although they would usually show tenths and hundreths of inches). CrazyC83 17:12, 27 August 2006 (UTC)
Not a measurement, so far, just an NHC estimate of how bad it could be. I'm going to change it again to 500 mm. Runningonbrains 17:22, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Moves

Yeah, stop it. --Golbez 09:30, 28 August 2006 (UTC)

Agreed. Barring a TCR downgrade (which, IMO, is certainly possible at this point), it is in the books as Hurricane Ernesto. As for the main article going to Hurricane Ernesto, I can understand a temporary move for searching purposes - although the dab page isn't supposed to be a big hassle. However, at this point (and even if Ernesto makes landfall at Cat 1 as expected) it is not likely headed for retirement, so it would have to be moved back anyway...barring a sudden reintensification or drastic damage/fatality numbers. CrazyC83 18:16, 28 August 2006 (UTC)
In my personal opinion, i think it's fine to call it Hurricane Ernesto. We just gotta put a few sentences to say that this storm fluctuated between tropical storm and hurricane status. dposse 20:06, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
I propose we delete this article. Ernesto is not notable as a Hurricane as it hasnt killed anyone. Until it does, this is just the press trying to fabricate a story on a slow news day. Hurricane Katrina 22:11, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Whoa, why would you consider that? Ernesto killed 2 people, and it is currently active. No way. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:13, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Hink, do not feed the trolls. Titoxd(?!?) 22:22, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
Sorry, but it's sooo tempting ;) I got it though. Hurricanehink (talk) 01:43, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
I think that it should be Tropical Depression Ernesto since that is what it is currently classifed as. If it gets upgraded then you should change it accordingly. Then when all is said and done put it back to Hurricane Ernesto.StormChaser666 16:39, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
And the point of all those page moves would be? Titoxd(?!?) 05:20, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
It would be absurd too. Would you think moving Hurricane Katrina to Tropical Depression Katrina as it dissipated would have been a good idea last year?--Nilfanion (talk) 09:38, 31 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] "Hurricane" Ernesto?

I'd like to see proof from professional oceanographers that this is an actual hurricane. As we know, hurricanes have to kill people or they're storms. Hurricane Katrina 22:12, 29 August 2006 (UTC)

...What? Here's a link from one of the NHC discussions that says it was a hurricane. How do you have the audacity to think that hurricanes have to kill people or they're storms. As we know, tropical storms can kill storms, while hurricanes can remain over the open waters. Hurricanehink (talk) 22:16, 29 August 2006 (UTC)

Ernesto did reach hurricane status at one point during its track. 75.34.33.118 19:05, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
"hurricanes have to kill people". HAHAHAHA. You are a funny little troll. dposse 22:32, 29 August 2006 (UTC)
In 1999, a tropical depression (TD11) killed 400 people in Mexico... CrazyC83 03:27, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
Not to mention that until 2004, the 4th most expensive storm on record was Tropical Storm Allison. --Golbez 03:33, 30 August 2006 (UTC)

In meteorology, a tropical cyclone (or tropical storm, typhoon, or hurricane, depending on strength and location) is a type of low-pressure system which generally forms in the tropics. While they can be highly destructive, tropical cyclones are an important part of the atmospheric circulation system, which moves heat from the equatorial region toward the higher latitudes. [1] [2] dposse 03:38, 30 August 2006 (UTC)

If you are still reading this Katrina (even though I doubt you are because you got blocked), if you want more proof that a storm doesn't have to be a hurricane to kill tons of people, here you go. Jake52 My talk 05:57, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
Surprised that no one mentioned Tropical Storm Jeanne in this blog. StormChaser666 16:42, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
This is NOT a blog. Also, this discussion is annoying, irrelevant, feeding the trolls...sorry I think you pushed a hot button with that "blog" thing. But seriously, try to keep discussion on the topic at hand: this article -Runningonbrains 03:11, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
Storms are still storms. Isacc, a strong Category 4 formed in 2000, it looks really well organized but the subtropical rigde prevents it from reaching further west. Oh wait, he's been banned. --IrfanFaiz 00:56, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
My favorite example of a strong nothing is Hurricane Cleo (1958), the last Category 5 fishspinner. The best example of recent times of a weak killer is a tropical wave that killed 2,000 in Haiti in late May 2004 yet never got organized enough to even be declared a tropical depression. CrazyC83 03:10, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
I think most of the deaths in May 2004 actually occured in and around the Dominican border town of Jimaní, though Haiti did suffer as well. Remember also that Jeanne brought tropical storm-force winds to only a small portion of northeast Haiti. Pobbie Rarr 11:57, 1 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] "Hurricane" Ernesto (again)

All foolishness aside, I'll be interested to see what they conclude in the TCR about Ernesto's strength. I have a suspicion that the NHC jumped the gun in naming it a hurricane in the Caribbean, where it never (in any imagery I saw) managed to achieve an eye or sub-990-mb pressures; in my estimation it could be lowered to a TS in those frames. Yet I also think Ernesto may have (like Gaston) briefly reached hurricane strength before landfall in north carolina - it (briefly) achieved an eye-like formation (perhaps not quite an eye), a pressure of 988 mbar, and caused 74 mph wind gusts measured along an east-facing beach (consistent with stronger hurricane-force sustained winds while the storm was at sea). — jdorje (talk) 05:30, 1 September 2006 (UTC)

Actually I'm going to revise my statement: that's not an eye-like structure, that's an eye. — jdorje (talk) 07:04, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
I was thinking exactly the same thing. An eye was clearly visible on satellite imagery leading up to landfall in North Carolina. Of course tropical storms can form eyes, but not very often. Pobbie Rarr 11:55, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
I disagree. While it sure did look like an eye for a few frames on the satellite imagery, the radar imagery was disorganized...no eyewall to speak of. It was only after the CDO formed close to landfall that an eye-type thingie showed up on radar. My main sticking point for upgrading to hurricane status was that there was a large area of 80 kt vectors on the radar imagery, which I believe translates to 60 kts at the surface. I would assume there were at least some areas in there approaching 90kts since the area was so large, and the color scheme jumps from 80 to 99. But then, I don't get paid for this, the NHC guys do. -Runningonbrains 13:02, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
Since Ernesto was being dragged more into the ridge by the second upper cyclone, the pressure gradient could have tightened enough to create hurricane force winds, even without a reduction in central pressure, while near Haiti. This is what irks me about one of the NHC recent discussions, which mentions that an extensive area of gales forming along the Mid-Atlantic coast is not directly due to Ernesto. Of course it is. Without the center of Ernesto having pressures that low, the winds would be weaker. Wind is due to pressure differential over distance. Thegreatdr 12:01, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, the NHC has it misphrased doesn't it? The Mid-Atlantic system is not part of Ernesto, but the TC had a direct influence on it...--Nilfanion (talk) 12:30, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
Check out the latest Surface analysis with the infrared image underlayed. There is only one cyclonic system involved at the surface....Ernesto. There's no other system in the Mid-Atlantic with which to confuse Ernesto and the resultant wind and rain patterns any longer. In fact, according to the latest [Mid Atlantic slice of the surface analysis], OPC is already indicating the beginning of extratropical transition, by essentially occluding Ernesto in the cold sector. Thegreatdr 13:49, 1 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Ernesto is nothing?

What is the hype about this thing? It's raining outside right now.. But the most I've seen so far was a downpour about an hour or so ago. This thing is being made-out as if it were an actual hurricane. -24.92.41.95 22:36, 29 August 2006 (UTC)

Media. Double-edged sword. 67.78.216.40 02:29, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
With all the hype it generated after it was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico, the media just needed something to cling onto. After last season, and after this "slow" start to the season (or so the media would have you believe), they're just desperate for some news out of the tropics. bob rulz 07:50, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
It's true that Ernesto only bring a little bit of rain here in Miami, didn't do much. Jaranda wat's sup 16:50, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
The center is over Miami right now. --IrfanFaiz 00:59, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
Look again pal, the center never went near Miami, it is directly over the National Weather Service in Melbourne. It has knocked out power to all of Brevard County and the storm is expected to pass over Cape Canaveral within the next hour... StormChaser666 01:26, 31 August 2006 (UTC)

The only reason this storm is getting so much attention is that it affects the United States and because of all the activity from Hurricane seasons 2004 and 2005. Ernesto was actually a hurricane back when it was near Haiti and never became one since. Tropical storm strength is "routine". However, it's nice to see heightened awareness. KyuuA4 13:20, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

Ernesto was flat out boring... →Cyclone1→ 02:02, 6 December 2006 (UTC)
Hardly. It produced hurricane force wind gusts, half a billion in damage, quite a few deaths, and took away the biggest business weekend of the end of the summer. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:45, 6 December 2006 (UTC)
For me, I meant. I live in central Florida and I was expecting a hurricane, but got a gentel breeze. Yes, in the long run, Ernesto was anything but boring. (sorry for the world's latest reply) →Cyclone1→ 16:17, 3 February 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Ernesto Ain't A Nothing

Now I have been tracking this storm by the minute since its invest page... Ernesto has been one of the hardest storms to forecast in a long time. There were questions about which one of the 2004 or 2005 storms would it imitate. Answer: NONE. Tropical Storm Ernesto proved to our team and many others of how cocky we had gotten when predicting storms. I called a Cat. 2 with a direct hit to Tampa. Then others said, No! It is going to go up the east coast of Fla and miss hitting the Sunshine state completely. If anyone can prove to me that they predicted this storm correctly with strength and location. I will give them everything I make off of the footage.

Also, don't say this storm is nothing, because that's not true. Ernesto still has life in the Atlantic to live. If I was to say where and when it will hit, that would be speculation.

However, for a dose of humor, (please don't anyone take this offensively...intentions are clean, promise) Do you suppose that this is a sign from God about immigration?? ALBERTO, ERNESTO, both storms genetated from the Latin region of the world and both hit FLORIDA. StormChaser666 16:52, 30 August 2006 (UTC)

LOL at the immigration thing. On a more serious note, Ernesto wasn't a nothing storm because it killed 2 and indirectly killed another. Any storm that kills a person is notable, and like you said, it still isn't over. Hurricanehink (talk) 18:19, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
LOL - were you watching Leno on that? KyuuA4 13:17, 4 September 2006 (UTC)
"Now I have been tracking this storm by the minute since its invest page" Wow, that means you haven't slept in over a week! ;-) --Holderca1 15:15, 31 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Strength at/past landfall

i was very dismayed to find that this article was so vague in terms of the systems' strength at landfall and other things. people really ought to include those figures in the article. 67.172.61.222 19:39, 30 August 2006 (UTC)

If you have them, add them. It's entirely likely that such information is not yet available. --Golbez 22:18, 30 August 2006 (UTC)
We will likely have to wait for the TCR to confirm landfall locations. It is unclear if it made a Haitian landfall for instance, and there is also a chance (at least in my view) that it could be downgraded to a peak-intensity Tropical Storm. CrazyC83 03:08, 31 August 2006 (UTC)

We have a big problem with Ernesto that will likely be ironed out in the TCR. NHC dropped the system to a tropical depression while 45-50 knot winds were lashing the coastal Mid-Atlantic states. It is extremely unlikely that the final track will drop the winds of Ernesto below gale force. There will be coordination w/NHC concerning this issue. Thegreatdr 20:20, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

Actually, I hear rumors from the NHC that Ernesto was never a hurricane. — Alastor Moody (T + C + U) 07:49, 31 October 2006 (UTC)
I find it highly unlikely that a 12-year-old would be able to "hear rumors from the NHC". Could you back that up? – Chacor 08:04, 31 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Rainfall information being added

The spreadsheet for Ernesto is being updated daily using a couple of different websites now listed as references in the article. One of the references changes daily at around 1 pm, which the other gets purged at the beginning of every month. Thegreatdr 18:50, 31 August 2006 (UTC)

Is there a way to get a permanent citation? dposse 22:19, 31 August 2006 (UTC)
Not until the overall HPC rainfall map and webpage are constructed in a few days. We're in an awkward middle period when information is available, but not in any archive. Before the rainfall project, this awkward period could last months between the time of impact until either the NCDC QC'ed the data or the TCR came out, although some information comes out in the PSH statements issued within 5 days after a tropical cyclone passes through. Thegreatdr 11:37, 1 September 2006 (UTC)
The preliminary HPC rainfall graphic is complete. The rainfall webpage should be constructed tonight. Thegreatdr 06:34, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
Hey, didn't Puerto Rico get over an inch of rain? This article says so. Does that mean you'll make a separate map for the us territories? íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 11:47, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
The map for Puerto Rico will be created tonight. Thegreatdr 17:29, 11 September 2006 (UTC)
Oh cool. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 21:23, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] HPC portion of the track

Can someone please add all the HPC advisories on Ernesto to its track? That's what we did with Alberto until the TCR. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 12:46, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

Whoever does so, please take into account extratropicality. – Chacor 12:52, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
...*crickets chirping*, well I don't know how to do it, so don't anybody blame me. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 21:24, 11 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Deaths number & rv unsourced

I added 2 direct fatalities in Virginia (from tree felled by wind = direct, from traffic accidents related to Ernesto = indirect, yes?), but I realized the infobox # seemed to count them before I added them, so am I missing a death or two in the text?

Also, a suggestion that unsourced data should be {{fact}}'d for awhile if without time/desire to research it, as long as it's not patent nonsense. TransUtopian 14:38, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Power Outages

CNN said this morning that the power outages extended from North Carolina into New York, areas around Buffalo particulary. -24.92.41.95 15:30, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

Wow! Can you give us a webpage link? íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 16:50, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
"Meanwhile, more than 400,000 people were without power in Maryland, Washington, North Carolina and Virginia."[3], [4]dposse 18:59, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
New York & Delaware were also among them.. Link is here. -24.92.41.95 03:01, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Virginia NWS Report

Here's a copy of the NWS post-storm report for Ernesto. However, is there a way to get a cached version or a screenshot of the site, because I fear it will be gone by the time they post the next post-storm summary. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:03, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

Try google cache. dposse 22:07, 3 September 2006 (UTC)
You could also dump it at Wikisource. :P – Chacor 02:09, 4 September 2006 (UTC)
Okeydoke. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:43, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] New York and New Jersey

New York and New Jersey were also affected by Ernesto with both Rain and Wind.

Mrsanitazier 23:09, 3 September 2006 (UTC)

Sorry forgot Connecticut.

Mrsanitazier 00:18, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

Look up to "Power Outages". dposse 05:00, 4 September 2006 (UTC)
Sorry Forgot another state Pennsylvania

Mrsanitazier 21:30, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

I need to revise the first statement so here is the revised version of the statement. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania were also affected by Ernesto with both Rain and Wind. So Sorry I had to revise the statement.

Mrsanitazier 21:44, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

I know what the power outage says it said something like Power outages spreded from North Carolina to New York.

Simbafan34 21:44, 4 September 2006 (UTC)

New Hampshire also got heavy rain and Maine got light to moderate rainfall, just to let y'all know. hehe, I like saying y'all; it sounds funny. ok, i'm done acting like i'm 5. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 22:25, 4 September 2006 (UTC)
Only 2-4" fell across portions of Pennsylvania and New York. The rainfall graphic "should" be done tomorrow. Thegreatdr 01:47, 5 September 2006 (UTC)
Very cool. Hurricanehink (talk) 01:56, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

This was one of those storms that no one really got hammered in, but there was damage across a very wide area covering 30 degrees of latitude, 8 countries, 18 states and 5 provinces... CrazyC83 03:54, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

Eh, i got battered by Ernesto. Strangely i was out of NJ for its damage, but it hit me in PA where i was. My flagpole got destroyed and 2 trees almost obliterated my school. 1998's Mitchazenia (joking) 23:29, 22 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Update notice

The article needs to be updated and more info is needed. Storm05 18:35, 31 October 2006 (UTC)

That will likely need the TCR's help. (That should be interesting - was it even a hurricane? Could the official name be Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)? Was it a hurricane at NC landfall?) CrazyC83 16:49, 1 December 2006 (UTC)
I think it was both. If it wasn't a hurricane at landfall, it was preparing to be. When the pressure falls, the winds soon follow...unless the storm hits land before the winds can follow. That may have been what happened with Ernesto at the North Carolina landfall, because that pressure (985) was unusual for a tropical storm at peak intensity. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 07:40, 17 December 2006 (UTC)
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