Hurricane Kyle (2002)
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| Category 2 hurricane (SSHS) | ||
|---|---|---|
 Hurricane Kyle on September 26, 2002 |
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| Formed | September 20, 2002 | |
| Dissipated | October 12, 2002 | |
| Highest winds |
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| Lowest pressure | 980 mbar (hPa; 28.95 inHg) | |
| Fatalities | 1 indirect | |
| Damage | $5 million (2002 USD) $5.61 million (2006 USD) |
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| Areas affected |
Bermuda, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina | |
| Part of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season |
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Hurricane Kyle of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was operationally treated as the third-longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin, although subsequent re-analysis has since placed it fourth. Kyle made two landfalls as a tropical storm, but no deaths were reported to have been caused directly by it. It was also the first storm to directly pass across Charleston Harbor since Hurricane Hugo did in 1989.[1]
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[edit] Storm history
A non-tropical area of low pressure developed into Subtropical Depression Twelve on September 20, 2002 at 1800 UTC, about 820 statute miles (1310 km, 715 nautical miles) east-southeast of Bermuda.[2][3] Moving in a clockwise loop motion, Subtropical Depression Twelve strengthened into a subtropical storm about twelve hours later on September 21 while located 790 miles (1260 km) east of Bermuda, and was named Kyle. During its loop motion, Kyle gained tropical characteristics and was designated a fully tropical system at about 1800 UTC on September 22.[3] Kyle continued to intensify, and became a hurricane at 1200 UTC September 25.[3] However, the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (1500 UTC) September 25 forecast discussion did not operationally upgrade Kyle to a hurricane, choosing to retain it as a tropical storm,[4] only upgrading Kyle at the next advisory six hours later.[5]
Kyle then reached its peak winds of 75 kt (85 mph, 130 km/h) at about 1200 UTC September 26[3], and maintained that strength for over 24 hours[3], against expectations, leading James Franklin to remark that Kyle was doing an "admirable job in fighting off the upper-level northly flow" that had been impinging it.[6] It eventually started to weaken under shear, and dropped to depression strength at 1800 UTC September 30.
However, at 1500 UTC October 1, Kyle was operationally re-upgraded to a tropical storm[7], and quickly reached its new peak intensity of 60 knot winds, just shy of hurricane status, at 2100 UTC October 2.[8] However, the storm was unable to sustain itself, and gradually weakened back to a tropical depression early on October 5.[9]
The storm made yet another comeback on October 6, regaining tropical storm strength after the NHC received data suggesting maximum sustained winds were that of tropical storm strength.[10] Again, Kyle started weakening and two days later on October 8 Kyle was downgraded to a tropical depression after vertical wind shear took its toll, leaving little deep convection from the system.[11]
Kyle defied forecasters further and regained tropical storm strength on October 11[3][12] shortly before its first landfall near McClellanville, South Carolina at 1700 UTC. Kyle made a second landfall five hours later near Surf City, North Carolina.[3] Kyle strengthened yet again into a tropical storm on October 12 for the fifth time[13] shortly before becoming extratropical.[14] Remnants of Kyle went on to affect the Azores and the British Isles while extratropical.[15]
With its duration, Kyle became operationally treated as the third-longest-lived Atlantic storm, after Hurricane Inga of 1969 and Hurricane Ginger of the 1971 season, having lasted for 22 days.[16][2][3] However, a re-analysis in 2004 made Kyle the fourth-longest-lived, with the addition of 1899 Hurricane San Ciriaco as the longest-lived Atlantic storm.
[edit] Forecasting uncertainties
The first forecast discussion after Kyle had first weakened to a tropical depression on September 30 was, in the words of the forecaster, Lixion Avila, "an unusual and highly uncertain forecast". Avila chose to keep the intensity of Kyle at 30 knots through 72 hours[17], but the storm regained tropical storm strength just a few hours later.[7]
In this new advisory it was noted that a southwestward drift was likely, and thus was the official forecast.[7] However, the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Report on Kyle indicated a northeastward movement during this forecast period.[3] Indeed, in the discussion Avila had noted that the forecast was "uncertain".
As Kyle strengthened, the forecast discussion from when Kyle was at its secondary peak of 60 knots revealed that Kyle may have developed an eye, but the forecaster, James Franklin, observed that there was a lack of "solid or vigorous" convection near the "eye".[8] Franklin also forecast that Kyle would regain hurricane strength, which it never did.
The National Hurricane Center's 57th forecast discussion on Kyle, issued by Avila, noted that "Kyle is barely a tropical storm", but called for Kyle to gradually strengthen.[18] However, Kyle weakened to a tropical depression just twelve hours later.[3][9] The advisory that weakened Kyle to a tropical depression forecast that Kyle would stall from 36 hours through the forecast period of 72 hours. However, this did not materialise.[3] Two of the next five advisories also insisted that Kyle would stall[19][10], but again, Kyle defied the forecasts. One of the advisories, discussion number 64, also did not correctly forecast that Kyle would drop again to depression strength.
Kyle's repeated weakening and restrengthening would go on to lead to further incorrect forecasts, with discussions 71 and 72 forecasting gradual strengthening[20][21]when Kyle actually weakened to a tropical depression shortly after.[3][11]
The National Hurricane Center would go on to make further forecast errors, however, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Kyle noted that track forecast errors were lower than average, and intensity forecasts had "slight positive bias (over forecast)", but that they were still lower than the ten-year averages.[3]
[edit] Preparations and impact
Despite Kyle not threatening Bermuda, the island was put under a Tropical Storm Watch due to the uncertain track of Kyle.[7] Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings were also required for most of the Southeastern United States coast, from Florida northward to North Carolina.[3] However, there is little information available on preparations as Kyle threatened the United States as only a weak tropical storm.
Kyle produced significant rainfall over both Bermuda and the United States. Half of October 2002's recorded rainfall in Bermuda was associated with Kyle.[22] Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina reported a two-day rainfall total of 5.79 inches (147 mm), the highest two-day total since Hurricane Floyd dropped 6.49 inches (165 mm) in 1999.[23]
Rainfall totals of 3.24 inches (82.3 mm) were reported in Florida, 13.70 inches (348 mm) in Georgia, 27.7 inches (704 mm) in North Carolina and 30.8 inches (782 mm) in South Carolina.[3] Roads were washed out in Clarendon County, South Carolina, after 6 inches of rain fell, while in Berkeley County, South Carolina, homes, a grocery store, and a senior citizen center were flooded.[1]
At least four tornadoes were reported from Kyle, injuring at least eight people and causing about US$1.5 to 2 million in damage.[24] Total damages reported from Kyle amount to about $5 million (2002 USD, $5.5 million 2006 USD).[3] While no deaths were reported directly from Kyle, its remnants caused at least one death in stormy seas off the British Isles.[15]
Despite its longevity, due to the lack of deaths and damage, the World Meteorological Organization did not retire the name "Kyle". Therefore, the name will be re-used for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ a b Associated Press (October 11, 2002). Long-lived tropical storm weakening over N.C.. USA Today. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ a b Beven, Jack et al. (November 1, 2002). Monthly Tropical Weather Summary. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Stewart, Stacy (November 16, 2003). Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Kyle. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ Stewart, Stacy (September 25, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 20. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ Stewart, Stacy (September 25, 2002). Hurricane Kyle Discussion Number 21. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ Franklin, James (September 27, 2002). Hurricane Kyle Discussion Number 28. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ a b c d Avila, Lixion (October 1, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 44. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ a b Franklin, James (October 2, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 49. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ a b Lawrence, Miles (October 5, 2002). Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion Number 59. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ a b Pasch, Richard and Mainelli, Michelle (October 6, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 64. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ a b Pasch, Richard (October 8, 2002). Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion Number 73. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Beven, Jack (October 11, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 83. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Stewart, Stacy (October 12, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 88. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Avila, Lixion (October 12, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 89. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ a b Boyle, Kevin and Padgett, Gary (January 9, 2003). Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary September 2002. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Franklin, James (October 11, 2002). Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion Number 87. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ Avila, Lixion (September 30, 2002). Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion Number 41. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 16, 2006.
- ^ Avila, Lixion (October 4, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 57. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Lawrence, Miles (October 6, 2002). Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion Number 63. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Beven, Jack (October 8, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 71. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Pasch, Richard (October 8, 2002). Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 72. National Hurricane Center. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ Weather Summary for October 2002. Bermuda Weather Service (November 4, 2002). Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ National Agricultural Statistics Service (United States Department of Agriculture) (October 16, 2002). National Weather Summary, Vol. 89, No. 42. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
- ^ National Hurricane Center. RSMC MIAMI 2002 ATLANTIC AND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON SUMMARY. World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved on August 18, 2006.
