Great power

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One of the hallmarks of contemporary great power status is permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council.

This article concerns only great powers in the modern (post-1815) world; for nation-states wielding similar power before 1815 see Historical powers

A great power is a nation or state that, through its great economic, political and military strength, is able to exert power over world diplomacy. Its opinions are strongly taken into account by other nations before taking diplomatic or military action. Characteristically, they have the ability to intervene militarily almost anywhere, and they also have soft cultural power.

The term great power was coined in 1814 and was used to represent the most important powers in Europe in the post-Napoleonic era. Large shifts in power have occurred since then, most notably in World War I and World War II. In the post-war era, many nations rebuilt their economies from the 1940s and returned to a position in which they wielded power projection.

There is great debate as to which modern nations constitute the great powers of the world. Largely the question has been answered by recourse to 'common-sense'. This has led to a great deal of subjective analysis, with little agreement on a definitive list. A second approach has been to develop a conceptual notion of great powers, deriving criteria that can applied to identify those countries which have, or once had, this status.^[1]

[edit] History

Different sets of great, or significant, powers have existed throughout history; however the term "great power" has only been used as one of scholarly or diplomatic discourse since the post-Napoleonic War Congress of Vienna in 1815.^[2] The Congress established the Concert of Europe as an attempt to preserve peace after the years of Napoleonic Wars.

Lord Castlereagh, the British Foreign Secretary, first used the term in its diplomatic context, in a letter sent on the February 13, 1814. He stated that:

It affords me great satisfaction to acquaint you that there is every prospect of the Congress terminating with a general accord and Guarantee between the great powers of Europe, with a determination to support the arrangement agreed upon, and to turn the general influence and if necessary the general arms against the Power that shall first attempt to disturb the Continental peace.^[3]

The Congress of Vienna consisted of five main powers: the United Kingdom, Austria-Hungary, Prussia, France, and Russia. Spain, Portugal, and Sweden were consulted on certain specific issues, but they were not full participants. On issues relating to Germany, Hanover, Bavaria, and Württemberg were also consulted. These five primary participants constituted the original great powers as we know the term today.^[4]

The Congress of Vienna by Jean-Baptiste Isabey, 1819.

Over time, these original five were subject to the usual ebb and flow of events. Some, such as the UK and Prussia (as part of the newly-formed German state), experienced continued economic growth and political power.^[5] Others, such as Russia and Austria-Hungary, slowly ossified.^[6][7] At the same time, other states were emerging and expanding in power; the foremost of which were Japan and the United States. Clearly, at the dawn of the 20th century, the balance of world power had changed substantially from 1815 and the Congress of Vienna. The Eight-Nation Alliance formed in 1900 to invade China represented the club of the great powers at the beginning of 20th century.

Shifts of international power have most notably occurred through major conflicts. ^[8] The conclusion of World War I and the resulting Treaty of Versailles witnessed the United Kingdom, France, Italy and the United States as the chief arbiters of the new world order.^[9] The end of World War II saw the United States, United Kingdom, and Soviet Union emerge as the primary victors. The importance of China and France was acknowledged by their inclusion, along with the other three, in the group of countries allotted permanent seats in the United Nations Security Council.

Since the end of the World Wars, the term 'great power' has been joined by a number of other power classifications. Foremost among these is the concept of the superpower, used to describe those nations with overwhelming power over the rest of the world. Middle power has emerged as a term for those nations which exercise a degree of global influence, but insufficient to be decisive on international affairs. Regional powers are those whose influence is confined to their region. Major power and global power have emerged as synonyms of 'great power'.

[edit] Characteristics

There are no set and defined characteristics of a great power. Largely the question has been treated as 'an empirical one, and common sense can answer it'.^[10] This approach does have the obvious disadvantage of subjectivity. As a result there have been attempts to derive some common criteria and to treat these as essential elements of great power status.

Early writings on the subject tended to judge nations by the realist criterion, as succinctly expressed by the historian AJP Taylor: "The test of a great power is the test of strength for war".^[11] Later writers have expanded this test, attempting to define power in terms of overall military, economic, and political capacity.^[12] This expanded test can be divided into three heads: power capabilities, spatial aspects, and status.^[13]

[edit] Power dimension

Leopold Von Ranke was one of the first to attempt to scientifically document the great powers

As noted above, for many, power capabilities were the sole criterion. However, even under the more expansive tests power retains a vital place.

This aspect has received mixed treatment, with some confusion as to the degree of power required. Writers have approached the concept of great power with differing conceptualizations of the world situation, from multipolarity to overwhelming hegemony. In his essay 'French Diplomacy in the Postwar Period', the French historian Jean-Baptiste Duroselle spoke to the multipolarity conceptualization. He wrote:

'A great power is one which is capable of preserving its own independence against any other single power.' ^[14]

This differed from earlier writers, notably from Leopold von Ranke, who clearly had a different idea of the world situation. In his essay 'The Great Powers', written in 1833, he wrote:

'If one could establish as a definition of a great power that it must be able to maintain itself against all others, even when they are united, then Frederick has raised Prussia to that position.' ^[15]

These positions have been the subject of criticism.^[16] For Duroselle's definition to result in more than one great power, major world powers must be equal in power—each able to resist one another. This is quite unlike the usual state of international relations where, even amongst great powers, there are nations which are stronger than others. For there to be even one great power, Ranke's definition requires one state to have overwhelming power. These positions are ameliorated somewhat by the asymmetry between offense and defense.

[edit] Spatial dimension

All nations have a geographic scope of interests, actions, or projected power. This is a crucial factor in distinguishing a great power from a regional power; by definition the scope of a regional power is restricted to its region. It has been suggested that a great power should be possessed of actual influence throughout the scope of the prevailing international system.

Great power may be defined as a political force exerting an effect co-extensive with the widest range of the society in which it operates. The great powers of 1914 were 'world-powers' because Western society had recently become 'world-wide'.- Arnold J Toynbee^[17]

Other suggestions that have been made are that a great power should have the capacity to engage in extra-regional affairs and that a great power ought to be possessed of extra-regional interests, two propositions which are often closely connected.^[18]

[edit] Status dimension

Formal or informal acknowledgment of a nation's status as a great power.

The status of great power is sometimes confused with the condition of being powerful, The office, as it is known, did in fact evolve from the role played by the great military states in earlier periods ... But the great power system institutionalizes the position of the powerful state in a web of rights and obligations.- George Modelski^[19]

This approach restricts analysis to the post-Congress of Vienna epoch; it being there that great powers were first formally recognized.^[4] In the absence of such a formal act of recognition it has been suggested that great power status can arise by implication, by judging the nature of a state's relations with other great powers.^[20]

A further option is to examine a state's willingness to act as a great power.^[21] As a nation will rarely declare that it is acting as such, this usually entails a retrospective examination of state conduct. As a result this is of limited use in establishing the nature of contemporary powers, at least not without the exercise of subjective observation.

[edit] The great powers

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The gross domestic product (GDP), as shown on this map, is perhaps the most important characteristic of a great power.

In the past, the term great power was mostly restricted to powers within Europe (see history above). Even since the term was first academically used in 1815, numerous powers have rotated between the statuses of great power, middle power and superpower. These are listed below. A major power shift occurred in the aftermath of the First and Second World Wars, which saw both the rise and fall of numerous great powers, including the fall of Austria-Hungary, France, Germany, Japan, and Italy.

In modern times, the European powers of Germany, France, and Italy managed to rebuild their economies and increase their power projection. China has built up to great power status during the post-war period. India is often considered a great power, although as this represents a recent ascension from middle power, it is not always categorized uniformly. There is debate on whether Italy should be included a 'great power'. It is a member of the G-8, and can be described as a major power in economic contexts;^[22] in military terms, however, it is categorized as a middle power rather than a great power.^[23].^[24]

Since the Second World War, the United States and Soviet Union ascended to superpower-status. After the dissolution of the USSR, the newly formed Russian Federation emerged on the level of a great power, leaving the United States as the sole superpower—despite Russia's inheritance, as the legal successor state to the Soviet Union, of many of the Soviet Union's superpower capabilities.

States that have been considered great powers since 1815 are listed in the following:

[edit] Austria-Hungary

"Distribution of Races in Austria–Hungary" from the Historical Atlas by William R. Shepherd, 1911. It was lack of internal cohesion that eventually brought about Austria-Hungary's downfall.

From the accession of the Archduke of Austria to the Holy Roman Emperorship in 1452, the Habsburgs were at the centre of great power politics until their demise in 1918.^[25] Austria-Hungary, with its large territory and population, played a major role in European politics - a role recognized by its inclusion as one of the principal parties of the Congress of Vienna. However the course of the nineteenth century was one of slow decline.

Economically and industrially Austria-Hungary remained reasonably strong; by the end of the nineteenth century it accounted for around 4% of the world's manufacturing output, ahead of both Italy and Spain.^[26] Austria-Hungary's GDP, which doubled between 1890 and 1913, was among the fastest growing in Europe.^[27] In terms of industry, Austria-Hungary maintained levels of coal, iron, and steel production comparable to France.^[28] Internally however, Austria-Hungary was riven by inter-ethnic tensions. These culminated in the 1867 Ausgleich, the compromise whereby the Emperor of Austria established the Dual Monarchy of Austria and Hungary. Despite this attempt to preserve unity, tensions between the Austrians, Hungarians, and the Slavs remained high.

Militarily Austria-Hungary maintained a large army, consisting of some 424,000 men by 1914^[29], and maintained strong military ties with the rising German Empire. Nevertheless Austria-Hungary had become a primarily regional power by 1914; it had played no part in the wave of European colonialism of the second half of the nineteenth century and had few extra-territorial interests. More preoccupied with internal stability, it had fallen behind the other great powers, failing to develop global outlook and reach. Austria-Hungary's defeat and break-up in the aftermath of World War I signalled its final decline.

[edit] China

the Type 99 tanks are one latest variant of China's 3rd generation main battle tanks.

China, with a large territory and population, had often been regarded as a notable power, albeit an insular nation whose influence was largely restricted to East and South-East Asia. However China's defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95 revealed how Chinese power had declined since the European Industrial Revolution. The end of the war marked the beginning of "...a process of financial penetration and semi-colonial expansion into the Chinese territories by almost all the other powers".^[30] This dependence on foreign powers, combined with the effects of the protracted Chinese Civil War, conspired to keep China well outside the ranks of the great powers. In 1949, the establishment of the communist People's Republic of China ended to this period. The People's Republic of China, with largely uncontested control over the vast area and population of mainland China, was largely regarded as a prospective great power.^[30].

This status remained merely prospective, until the Korean War. China's ability in this war to "...first inflict a defeat and then a stalemate upon the U.S. armies illustrated dramatically the emergence of a new world power."^[31]

The People's Republic of China, when formed in 1949, had a large land area that has been home to a large number of historical powers. In the first thirty years of the PRC's history, it attempted to rid China of its so called 'backward traits' through the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural revolution. Many millions of innocent Chinese citizens died in these attempts at economic growth,^[32] but many maintain that these events were necessary in building the foundation for modernization.^[33] The Great Leap forward and Cultural Revolution are polarizing instances in Chinese history, and after the death of Mao Zedong, his fallacies were largely covered up, and his legacy of the Great Leap forward and Cultural Revolution, were put behind him for the most part.

In 1971, as most of the world began to recognize the PRC instead of the ROC, the PRC was henceforth put on the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member to replace ROC as the proper representative of China in the UN.^[34] This position is generally reserved for great powers, as it provides increased political strength and the power to veto any actions of the UN Security Council. China soon took its role as an equal leader of the communist world alongside the Soviet Union. The PRC was often regarded as representative for Asian nations which had been previously colonialized, although its rule over Tibet and the Sino-Indian War brought this role into jeopardy.^[35]. It conducted nuclear tests in the 1960's and became the first Asian power to acquire nuclear weapons, to later be followed by India.

The fireball from the "596 nuclear test" conducted by China.

Modern China is considered an emerging superpower by some political analysts. It has the world's largest population (1.3 billion people).^[36] By 1980, China’s underdeveloped, but developing economy became the 5th biggest manufacturer.^[35] It is currently the 4th largest economy in the world in nominal GDP and growing at a rate of over 9% a year.^[37] In terms of sheer manpower, China has the biggest military in the world, with 2,225,000 active troops, although in terms of total troops (including reserves) it is narrowly ahead of the United States. ^[38]

Chinese president Hu Jintao with American president George W. Bush.

China's power projection within East Asia is considered to be extensive but to other parts of the world is limited. Apart from being diplomatically connected with North Korea,^[39] a fellow nuclear communist country, it is also culturally affiliated with Southeast Asia and is a provider of nuclear technology and weapons of mass destruction to Pakistan and Middle Eastern countries in an attempt to rival the United States^[40][41], who are apprehensive about the future of this region. China's October 2004 energy deal with Iran, along with its promise to block any American attempt to refer Iran’s nuclear program to the UN Security Council,^[41] is an example of China's considerable influence in the world order. It also has economic connections with South America and Africa.^[42]

[edit] France

The Charles De Gaulle, flagship of the Marine Nationale and the only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the world not operated by the United States Navy.

France, as one of the oldest powers in Europe, found itself in a pre-eminent position on the continent in the aftermath of victory in the Thirty Years' War. The Peace of Westphalia in 1648 was largely dictated by the French and introduced France as the most powerful nation in Europe, a status it maintained until the War of the Spanish Succession (1702-14). At the conclusion of this indecisive war, France was severely weakened, both externally and internally. For the remainder of the eighteenth century, France remained a premier European power, but this status was shared with the United Kingdom. In the late eighteenth century France emerged as a potent force, expanding into Europe first under successive revolutionary governments, then in the early nineteenth century under the leadership of Napoleon Bonaparte. The Napoleonic Wars were initially highly successful for France, but finally ended in French defeat, restricting France's ambitions over the rest of Europe. Still, France continued to be a decisive player in continental affairs, as highlighted by its intervention against Spain in 1823 and its aid to the Italians in the Franco-Austrian War of 1859, until 1870, when it was defeated by a coalition of German states in the Franco-Prussian War. This dealt the country a severe military and political blow; during the final decades of the nineteenth century, France was more in the background among powers such as the United Kingdom, the German Empire, and Russia than it traditionally had been used to.

Nevertheless, France remained a crucial nation-state in international diplomacy. This was most notably exemplified in the system of military alliances that emerged prior to World War I. Both Russia and the United Kingdom, in the Franco-Russian Alliance of 1894 and the Entente Cordiale of 1904, sought the French to counterbalance the growing threat of the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy. Furthermore, France played a full part in European colonial expansion, with an empire covering 9% of the world's surface by 1939.^[43] During this time, only the British Empire controlled more overseas possessions than the Third Republic.

A cartographic history of French imperialism, light blue is the first colonial empire and dark blue is France and the second colonial empire (the Atlas region of today's Algeria became part of the native country) and gray-blue is the economic interest sphere in China

Economically, French growth lagged behind rivals such as Germany and Russia. France's share of world manufacturing output continued to decline steadily during the second half of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth, falling from 7.9% of world output in 1860 to 3.2% in 1953.^[44] However, French economic growth soared following the Second World War, and the decades immediately after became known as the Trente Glorieuses to signify the improving economic situation. Today, France is one of few nations to have a multi-trillion dollar economy; it has the sixth-largest economy in the world in nominal terms.

In the aftermath of World War II, France recovered from the devastation wrought upon it. France's continued global prominence was recognised by the grant of permanent membership in the UN Security Council. However, in the post-war wave of decolonisation, France suffered the loss of the vast majority of its overseas territories, incurring particularly significant defeats in the First Indochina War (1945-1954) and in the Algerian War of Independence (1954-1962). Currently, unencumbered by continental wars or intricate alliances, France deploys its military forces as part of international peacekeeping operations, security enforcers in former colonies, or maintains them combat ready and mobilized to respond to threats from rogue states. France is one of the authorized nuclear states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. France also is the only nation besides the United States to operate a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and, with 36,000 troops deployed overseas,^[45] has a significant military presence around the world. On top of its notable military status, France still remains a diplomatic power involved in several hotspots around the world, perhaps most recently and famously working with the United States in the United Nations to draft a resolution that ended the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon.

[edit] Germany

The disunited Germany that existed for much of the 18th and 19th centuries was led by Prussia, which was militarily strong but still no more than a middle power.^[46] With the Franco-Prussian War and German Unification under the leadership of Otto von Bismarck, the new unified German state became a prominent European great power.^[46] Germany's power from therein has been one of the most fluctuating out of all of the great powers.

Former Chancellor Schröder walks with U.S. President George W. Bush, Germany has brought itself back from devastation in the World Wars to become a strong democratic nation.

Colonies under German influence, yellow is private property of the Welser's family-run concern, red are old Prussian triangular trade bases (soon abandoned), light-blue are colonies of the German Empire

In 1896, Kaiser Wilhelm II announced that Germany was going to become a world power, thus setting the foundation for a major shift in Germany's policies.^[47][48] The new German policies were those of Machtpolitik (power politics) and Weltpolitik (world politics)^[46]. Germany went on to make public its ambitions to rival the United Kingdom's navy and to buildup its military. In 1907, the Schlieffen Plan was created. Dangerous as this was it was supported by the Kaiser, his chancellors and other key members within German politics.^[46] As a result of this buildup, Germany's naval power increased from 5th in 1890 to 2nd in 1914, at the onset of World War I.^[49] Germany had, however, isolated itself in Europe and was surrounded by France, Russia and the United Kingdom (the Triple Entente). This resulted in a humiliating defeat in World War I and the creation of the Treaty of Versailles which pinned blame for the war directly on Germany.^[46] Germany, having lost its colonies and had its navy, air force and army restricted, dropped from great power status at the end of the war.^[46]

However, Germany rose again in the 1930s concurrently with the rise of Nazism under the leadership of Adolf Hitler.^[50] Germany defied the treaty of Versailles and built an economy which survived the Great Depression with the greatest GDP growth in Europe.^[50] By 1938 it was one of the top manufacturers and components of world trade.^[50] The Nazis spent 80% of the German economy on expanding Germany's military and expanding into regions it was blocked from after the Treaty of Versailles.^[50] Germany's hard power stunned the other great powers and pushed them into the Policy of Appeasement, they did not react as Germany annexed Austria (the Anschluss) and parts of Czechoslovakia (Munich agreement). However, the German attack on Poland triggered World War II. Germany made very large gains during the Second World War and successfully invaded France and attacked the British mainland from the air. However, the choice of invading Soviet Russia for Lebensraum (living space) was one that effectively caused them to lose the war.

Since the Second World War, Germany was split into West Germany and East Germany, there is much dispute as to whether West Germany was still a great power after the collapse of Germany. While Germany never became a global superpower per the wishes of Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler, modern Germany is undoubtedly a great power.^[50] There is still dispute as its date of ascension. By 1980, West Germany was the second-largest trading partner in the world and third largest economy in terms of industrial potential, and it also had the largest NATO force in Europe.^[50]David Singer and Melvin Small maintain that it became a great power in the 1960s.^[51] while Jack Levy maintains this ascension occurred in 1955.^[52] The political élite, however, including chancellor Angela Merkel^[53] or former president Johannes Rau, describe Germany as a Mittelmacht(middle power) in Europe.^[54]Likewise in the leading media of the country the furthest claim towards the role of a great power is being a führende Mittelmacht(leading middle power).^[55]

[edit] India

India is the newest great power on the world stage, according to some. This status has been achieved only the last few years. India was always in a strong geographic position to exert great influence. After the British Empire had seized control of India, Lord Curzon of the British Empire stated:

The Metropolis of Mumbai. Mumbai is one of the most modern and cosmopolitan cities in India

After achieving independence in 1947, the new Indian government was marred by wars and internal religious turmoil (see Partition of India). The government eventually brought itself back together and set itself towards the goal of modernizing the economy. It engaged in a close relationship with the Soviet Union and defeated political rival Pakistan in 3 wars. However, it was not until the 1980s that India began to push itself to the status of a great power.^[58]

In the 1980s, India began increasing its political status in the world, the Indian Peace Keeping Force was deployed and India took over the Siachen glacier. However, not all actions went to plan and India's military buildup resulted in a weakened economy in the early 1990s, when its great ally the Soviet Union ceased to exist.^[58] Thus India's move towards a greater role in international relations had to slow down and the nation had to rebuild itself. With a booming population, India began to achieve impressive GDP growth which sits today at 9.2%^[59] It was, by now, a strong military power which possessed nuclear weapons, it possessed a huge population accompanied by a rapidly growing economy. India's greater role as in global politics as a member of BRIC and the G4 pushed it into the forefront in terms of political influence. India has now established itself as an economic strength and some political analysts believe it could project its influence through the Indian Ocean, just as China earlier did in East Asia.^[60] India's new foreign affairs policy after the end of the Cold War has given it strong yet friendly political influence in numerous regions. According to political analyst C. Raja Mohan:

The Indian Aircraft Carrier INS Viraat, which used to be HMS Hermes of the Royal Navy.

The signing of a landmark nuclear deal with the United States, despite being non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has proved India's political influence as the deal is against traditional U.S. policy with any nation.^[60] The fact that India is the world's largest democracy is appreciated by the United States.^[57].

India's ties with Japan, the only other democratic great power in Asia, have also grown, as Shinzo Abe has stated "It is of crucial importance to Japan's national interest that we further strengthen our ties with India, the most important bilateral relationship in the world".^[57] On 22 January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry, an indication of its recent scientific progress.^[61]

The CIA has labeled India the key "swing state" in international politics. It predicts that India will emerge by 2015 as the fourth most important power in the international system. Goldman Sachs predicts that, by 2040, the largest economies on earth will be China, the United States, India, and Japan.^[57] India's growth has increased speculation that it will be the next superpower.

[edit] Italy

Italy, as a single state, emerged in 1860 with the process of Italian unification. After its unification, it quickly established itself as a major factor in European affairs^[62] although it was widely regarded as being "...the least of the great powers".^[63] The colonial period saw Italy make some gains, such as those made in Libya during the Italo-Turkish War of 1911. However Italy also suffered some considerable setbacks, such as their defeat at the hands of Ethiopian forces at the Battle of Adowa in 1896.

The Italian Empire in 1940.

Although regarded as a great power throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Italian military power was in gradual decline. Italy declined from having the third largest navy in 1890, to the sixth largest by 1914.^[64] Its level of urban and industrial development was far less than that of its fellow great powers; by 1913 60% of its labour force were still employed in agriculture, compared with 35% in Germany.^[65] The literacy rate was 62%, the lowest of the great powers, and it had an increasingly low manufacturing output.^[66]

Nevertheless, Italy was given political influence and accorded military importance far beyond its actual hard power. It was expected, in the spring of 1915, that Italy would step into World War I and provide the decisive blow that either side needed to end the war,^[67] expectations which proved to be woefully over-optimistic. Nevertheless, after the war, Italy continued to be accorded respect, being given a permanent seat on the council of the new League of Nations. However the inter-war years saw Italy, now under the fascist regime of Benito Mussolini, diverge from the rest of the great powers. In a quest to acquire the overseas empire to which they believed that they were entitled, Italy began campaigns against African nations. These campaigns were largely successful, considerably increasing Italy's overseas holdings. However, these areas, largely desert regions, were regarded as worthless by the other great powers, providing no practical benefit to Italy.^[68] These campaigns led to the final break with the other great powers - Italy's actions were condemned as those of an aggressor and it was forced to withdraw from the League of Nations.

Italy entered World War II as an ally of Nazi Germany, a conflict which ended in defeat in 1943. It is accepted that this defeat ended its tenure as a great power.^[66]

After the devastation of World War II, however, Italy was able to rebuild its economic status and by the end of the twentieth century, had reached "roughly the same total and per capita output as France and the UK"^[69], but unlike United Kingdom, West Germany, France or Japan, which rebuilt their economies and were once more great powers by the 1970s and 1980s, Italy failed to re-establish itself completely^[66]. However, there is some contemporary debate as to whether Italy still remains the least of the great powers or if it has become only the greatest of the so-called middle powers.^[70][71]

[edit] Japan

Admiral Togo on the bridge of Mikasa, at the beginning of the Battle of Tsushima in 1905.

The date of Imperial Japan's emergence as a great power has been disputed, having been achieved in either 1895, with Japan's victory in the Sino-Japanese War, or in 1905 with Japan's victory in the Russo-Japanese War.^[72] Regardless of the date that is settled upon, Japan was able to gain the support of both the United Kingdom and the United States during its 1905 conflict with Russia. This tacit cooperation was cemented through regular renewals of the Anglo-Japanese Treaty (1902, 1905, 1911) and through the Taft-Katsura Agreement of 1905. As one of the Allies of World War I, as a result of its mutual defence obligations towards the United Kingdom, Japan was recognised by being invited to become the only non-Western Permanent Member of the Council of the League of Nations.

Japan's foreign policy changed in the inter-war period, becoming ever more militaristic and estranging itself from other nations. This culminated in the 1931 Manchuria Incident, leading to Japan's withdrawal from the League. Thereafter Japan allied itself more closely with Nazi Germany and Italy, further estranging itself from its former allies.

Despite initial gains, Japan suffered defeat and occupation at the conclusion of World War II, events regarded as signalling its loss of great power status.^[73] Opinion is divided as to when this status was regained. The allied occupation of Japan ended in 1952; thereafter Japan became a fully independent state, although subject to substantial constitutional restrictions on its armed forces and defence policy.

Although restricted in its use of hard power, post-war Japan experienced substantial economic growth: between 1950 and 1980, Japanese share of world trade tripled.^[30] By the late 1960s and early 1970s, Japan was at the economic level of the other great powers, though it remained substantially militarily weaker. In consequence, starting from the early 1980s, some studies in this area have largely regarded Japan as, once more, one of the great powers.^[74]

[edit] Russia/USSR

Soviet advances from August 1943 to December 1944.

Russia is one of the oldest great powers. It could be considered by many as a great power as early as the Congress of Vienna.^[75] By this time, Russia had a modern military which had withstood Napoleon's invasion, a strong navy and was politically divided into well-organized provinces.^[76]

By the early 20th century, however, Russia had faced many internal struggles and political challenges, including a war with rising great power Japan. Russia remained a great power largely because of its massive population and its large land area which stretched (and still stretches) across both Europe and Asia.^[75] By 1908, it controlled 8 percent of the world's manufacturing output, which positioned it ahead of France and some other great powers.^[75] At that time, only Germany spent more on defence as part of Kaiser Wilhelm II's prewar military buildup.^[77]

The October revolution and the takeover of the Bolsheviks saw the newly-formed Soviet Union become one of the least of the great powers, however its large land area and population as well as its economic growth rate (the quickest in the world in the 1930s) allowed it to quickly become one of the most important great powers in Europe.^[75]

World War II was one of Russia's most costly wars and was also the war which elevated the Soviet Union (within which Russia was the most prominent republic) to superpower status. After signing a Non-Aggression Treaty with Germany and acquiring half of Poland as a result, the USSR avoided the bulk of the first half of the war. However, its counterattack to German invasion was a decisive factor in the end of the war and signalled the Soviet Union's strength to the rest of the world. The USSR's political influence spread over much of Eastern Europe, allowing it to create a communist bloc in geopolitics and be opposite the United States in the Cold War. Although it suffered immense casualties in World War II, the USSR could be labelled a Superpower by the end of the war.^[62]

After the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 and the loss of the Soviet Union's Communist influence over much of the world, the newly independent Russian Federation survived as a great power.^[62] Russia is the acknowledged legal successor state to the USSR, inheriting many of its superpower capabilities. It assumed (and has paid off) the USSR's external debt, has taken control of Soviet assets abroad, and has received the lion's share of the Soviet Union's production facilities and military forces as well as its diplomatic status (e.g. UN Security Council seat.). It also remained the largest country in the world by area.

[edit] United Kingdom

The Battle of Waterloo marked the end of the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of the Pax Britannica.

The United Kingdom's insular position, relatively secure off the coast of Europe, left it largely untouched by continental conflicts. Despite occasional threats, such as the planned attack on England in 1588 by the Spanish Armada, Great Britain (then divided into the separate Kingdoms of England & Wales, and Scotland), although involved at times, played little part in decisive European events such as the Thirty Years War. The War of the Spanish Succession (1701-14) marked something of a turning point; the treaties which concluded this war, the Treaty of Utrecht (1713) and the Treaty of Rastadt (1714), brought Great Britain considerable gains, over and above those of the other victorious powers. As recent historians have remarked, …considering the settlement as a whole, there was no doubt that the great beneficiary was Great Britain.'^[78] The remainder of the eighteenth century saw Britain increasingly sharing the status of pre-eminent power with France. The Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars conspired to weaken France yet further, leaving the United Kingdom as the sole major power throughout the nineteenth century.^[79]

Map showing British Empire in 1921 coloured pink, most of which are still a part of the Commonwealth of Nations. It covered more than 25% of the world's land and population and was the largest and most extensive empire in history.

During the course of the nineteenth century, Britain rapidly expanded its colonial holdings: by 1913 the British Empire had 458 million subjects and directly controlled around 14.2 million square miles of the world's surface area. This equated to around 25% of the world's surface and 25% of the world's population^[80], figures which exclude those areas over which Britain exercised decisive 'soft power' such as South America. This process was substantially aided by Britain's industrial supremacy (having been the first nation to industrialise) and command of the seas. Such was Britain's power during the period, that it has been referred to as the Pax Britannica. The United Kingdom is often considered to have been the world's first Superpower. By the turn of the twentieth century however, Britain was increasingly challenged by Germany and the United States. Both powers overtook the United Kingdom in terms of industrial production at the turn of the century, although Britain continued to enjoy the largest share of world trade until the outbreak of World War II.^[81] The United Kingdom was one of the chief victors of World War I, gaining a number of colonies and other territories from the defeated powers. However, somewhat drained after the Great War, the inter-war years marked something of a decline in the internal cohesion of the Empire. The 1931 Statute of Westminster saw the United Kingdom renounce its right to direct control over the Dominions, instead acknowledging them as equals, all bearing allegiance to the same monarch.

The famous Spitfire of the RAF. The RAF won the Battle of Britain and ended Germany's advance in western Europe during World War II.

World War II eventually marked the end of the United Kingdom's global pre-eminence. The effort and strain of the conflict left the country financially, materially, and spiritually exhausted. Though one of the chief victors, and ranked alongside the United States and Soviet Union as one of the chief arbiters of the post-war order,^[82], Britain found itself increasingly unable to sustain this role. The post-war wave of decolonisation saw the independence of most of the Empire, a loss somewhat offset by the fact that most of these newly independent states sought to preserve their links to the United Kingdom by membership of the Commonwealth of Nations.

The Royal Navy's CVF Aircraft Carriers with F-35 fighter jets replacement for the Invincible class aircraft carriers fleet and Sea Harriers. Today, the UK has the second highest defence spending after the United States and the second most powerful navy which includes the world's second largest aircraft carrier fleet.

Britain's relative decline from global hegemon was such that 'Declinism' was pervasive by the early 1970s, after the nation had suffered humiliation in the 1956 Suez War, and considerable economic woes during the 1960s. However, the Falklands War of 1982 proved that British global power was still extensive, as fleets from the Royal Navy were sent several thousand miles to successfully eject the Argentine invasion force in the South Atlantic. Further, accession into the European Union in the mid-1970s, and economic reforms in the 1980s, transformed the domestic economic and political situation. Thus, by the late 1980s, Britain had reconfirmed its status as a major power. Britain's economy over the past decade has experienced a long period of high growth, growing faster than any other major developed economy. Britain's economy, dominated by the service industry (in particular the financial sector), was ranked 4th in the world until recently when it was overtaken by China.

The United Kingdom fields one of the most powerful, comprehensive and technologically advanced armed forces in the world. Its global power projection capabilities are deemed second only to the United States military, and its navy is the world's second strongest,^[83] with the second largest aircraft carrier fleet. The Royal Navy is currently building the new CVF aircraft carriers armed with the new F-35 fighter jets and will be the largest aircraft carriers outside the United States. The United Kingdom also now has many of its armed forces stationed in many countries across the world, especially after the extensive support it gave in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Britain's armed forces budget is now the second highest in the world and has rapidly increased over the past decade. British cultural power has remained both influential and extensive, with the English language considered as the global language. Britain remains a significant player in world diplomacy. The United Kingdom also holds a permanent UN Security Council seat and is a prominent member of NATO and the European Union. The United Kingdom acquired a nuclear deterrent in 1952 (third after the USA and Soviet Union and continues to maintain its own nuclear deterrent of approximately 200+ nuclear warheads based on 4 nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

[edit] United States

The United States of America rose to the status of a great power after the Spanish-American war of 1898.^[66] The United States, though a newly emerged industrial leader, lacked global reach and lagged behind the other powers in terms of military and naval strength.

U.S. 1st Kentucky Volunteers in Puerto Rico, 1898

The United States, most notably under the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, began to play a considerable role in global diplomacy. It involved itself in diplomatic mediation between numerous states, including fellow great powers Russia and Japan.^[84] Those who wished to see the United States adopt the role of a global power had to contend with the strong isolationist sentiment endemic amongst a substantial portion of the political establishment and electorate. This internal conflict led to the belated entry of the United States into World War I. In the aftermath of the war, President Woodrow Wilson, with his Fourteen Points and the League of Nations, was the chief architect of a new international world order. However, just as the United States seemed to be taking a major part in world events, isolationism once more prevailed; the United States Congress refused to ratify U.S. membership of the League of Nations.

The inter-war years saw the United States largely stand aloof from international diplomacy. Their isolation led to their absence from most of the post-Versailles conferences such as Locarno (1925) and Munich (1938); the United States had little part in influencing or developing the 1930s appeasement policy towards Nazi Germany. Such was the popular support for isolationism during the 1930s that the U.S. government, under the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt, passed strict neutrality laws.

Despite its lack of involvement in world diplomacy, the United States remained relatively active in the area of commerce and arms control. Under the 1922 Washington Naval Conference and the 1930 London Conference, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Japan were prohibited from exceeding designated naval tonnages. The United States and the United Kingdom were both permitted a naval tonnage in excess of that permitted to the other signatories. This was an especially notable provision in that, for the first time, the United States was recognised as being one of the top-tier world powers, as a power on a par with the British Empire. With the reductions necessary to meet these limits, the Royal Navy, for the first time in many generations, was no longer the preeminent world navy.

The advent of World War II once again produced isolationist sentiment in the United States, which caused the country to initially avoid participation in the conflict in both Europe and Asia. It took the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 to rouse the United States to enter the war. Nevertheless, the United States had a decisive influence, and helped bring the war to its victorious conclusion for the Allies.

American troops march down the Champs Elysées in Paris

The three principal victors of the war were the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union. Britain, however, soon found itself unable to maintain its position as a premier world power. The post-war world was consequently dominated by the ideological clash between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States is considered the sole superpower ^[85], though it has been argued that the world is multipolar and no single nation has the kind of overwhelming influence that the U.S. and USSR enjoyed during the Cold War.^[86]

[edit] References

[edit] See also

[edit] Further reading

• Pulling at the Threads of Westphalia: Involuntary Sovereignty Waiver - Revolutionary International Legal Theory or Return to Rule By the Great Powers? by Michael J. Kelly; 10:2 UCLA Journal of International Law & Foreign Affairs (2005).
• The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer
• Theory of International Politics by Kenneth N Waltz
• World Politics: Trend and Transformation by Eugene R. Witkopf
• The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy