Great Transition

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Great Transition refers to the accelerating global transformation and is a vision of how humanity can create a planetary civilization that reflects universal social and ecological values, affirms diversity, and defeats poverty, war, and environmental destruction. [1] The essential elements the Great Transition vision are increased human interconnectedness, improved quality of life, and a healthy planet.[2]

Contents

[edit] Background

The term Great Transition was first introduced by the Global scenario group (GSG), an international body of scientists which was convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute to examine the requirements for a transition to a sustainable global society. The GSG set out to describe and analyze scenarios for the future of the earth as it entered a Planetary Phase of Civilization. The GSG's scenario analysis resulted in a series of reports [3] and its findings were summarized for a non-technical audience in the essay Great Transition: the Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead.

In this essay the Global Scenario Group explains that civilization is now in a moment of transition in which “all components of culture will change in the context of a holistic shift in the structure of society and its relation to nature…transforming values and knowledge, demography and social relations, economics and governance, and technology and the environment.” [4] Out of the turbulence of transition, very different forms of global society could emerge. The choices we make over this next critical decade could set the trajectory of global development for generations to come.[5] The Great Transition essay contends that what type of planetary civilization will form depends in part on whether those living today rise to the challenge and contest power with transnational corporations and state governments (i.e., the emergence of an authentic global citizens movement).

In historic perspective, the Planetary Phase of Civilization is viewed as the third significant transition in civilization. Though history is complex and difficult to distinguish, the changes from the Stone Age to Early civilization and then to the Modern Era are typically accepted as macro-shifts in human society and culture. These transitions can be differentiated based on social organization, economy, and communications. The Stone Age consisted of the most basic and simple versions – tribes and villages, hunting and gathering, and oral language as the only means of communication. The shift into Early Civilization brought more structured city-states and kingdoms, settled agriculture, and writing. Society developed further in the Modern Era into nation-states with industrial systems and computer technology, which enhanced communication and increased the complexity of society. Unlike these prior transitions, the Planetary Phase marks a new geologic era, the Anthropocene, in which human activity fundamentally alters ecosystems and the climate. [6]

In Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, the GSG indicates that historical transitions appear to be accelerating as each successive period lasts for a shorter amount of time than the previous one. The GSG uses this assumption to create scenarios which lead to varying futures ranging from Breakdown to Policy Reform to Eco-Communalism to Great Transition.

[edit] Alternative Scenarios

A scenario as used here is a story rooted in quantitative and qualitative analysis, constructed with detail, rigor, and imagination. The Global Scenario Group organized its alternative scenarios into three broad categories: Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transition. Conventional Worlds are futures that evolve gradually from today’s dominant forces of globalization : economic interdependence deepens, dominant values spread and developing regions converge toward rich-country patterns of production and consumption. Two variations are Market Forces, a neo-liberal vision in which powerful global actors advance the priority of economic growth, and Policy Reform, in which governments are able to harmonize economic growth with sustainable development objectives, such as the Millennium Development Goals. But if market and policy adaptations are not sufficient to blunt social polarization, environmental degradation, and economic instability, the danger of a deepening global crisis looms. Out of the turbulence, some form of Barbarization scenario could consolidate. One form this could take would be an authoritarian Fortress World scenario, a kind of global apartheid with elites in protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside. Another is Breakdown, where conflicts and crises spiral out of control, waves of disorder spread across countries and regions, and institutions collapse. Great Transition scenarios are, in contrast, transformative scenarios. Their defining feature is the ascendancy of a new suite of values – human solidarity, quality-of-life, and respect for nature – that support a revision of the meaning of development. Conventional Worlds scenarios see capitalist values maintained and only market forces and incremental policy reform trying to curb environmental degradation. Barbarization is a set of possible futures in which environmental collapse leads to an overall social collapse. The Great Transition is a pathway that finds humanity changing its relationship with the environment—and it has two variants: Eco-Communalism and New Sustainability Paradigm

Eco-Communalism Eco-Communalism is a vision of a better life which turns to non-material dimensions of fulfillment – the quality of life, the quality of human solidarity and the quality of the earth. It is a highly localist vision favored by some environmental subcultures and is a strong theme within the anti-globalization movement

New Sustainability Paradigm The New Sustainability Paradigm sees in globalization, not only a threat, but also an opportunity for forging new categories of consciousness – global citizenship, humanity-as-a-whole and its place in the web of life and its link to the fate of the earth.

The New Sustainability Paradigm endorses many of the ideals of Eco-Communalism with its plea for new human values and empowered communities. It rejects rampant consumerism, seeking improved human well-being through qualitative development built upon material sufficiency for all. It seeks a world where the quality of human knowledge, creativity and self-realization, not the quantity of goods and services, signals development. It embraces equality, empowerment, and deep respect for the intrinsic values of nature. It recognizes plural paths to modernity, and welcomes regional diversity in expressing such core values as freedom, equity, democracy, and sustainability. It champions subsidiarity, the principle that decision-making occur at the most decentralized level possible, subject to meeting obligations that can only be deliberated at higher levels within a nested global governance structure.

But rather than reject globalization, the New Sustainability Paradigm seeks to change the character of global civilization. It sees the planetary phase of civilization as an opportunity and a challenge. Rather than retreat into localism, it validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization, economic interdependence, and cooperative efforts to build a harmonious and sustainable global society. It understands citizenship and governance in a planetary context, expressed at multiple spatial scales from the local to the global.

[edit] Global Citizens Movement

The pathways to a Great Transition are uncertain and diverse, but the essay Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead lays out certain clues: Governments, limited by nationalist sentiments, are unlikely to lead the way. Transnational corporations are not likely to reinvent themselves. Civil society, although active on the many issues arising during the tumult of transition, is currently too fragmented and small scale to significantly alter the course of global development.

The Global Scenario Group analysis concludes that a Great Transition will not be possible unless larger numbers of an active and aware global citizenry get involved in the struggle for our future. They refer to this as a global citizens movement for a Great Transition. This movement would see itself as constructing a new planetary society rooted in values of quality of life, human solidarity, and environmental sustainability. An authentic global citizens movement would be quite different form the existing fragmented social movements active throughout the world today. These movements tend to be issue-specific – focused on labor, environment, human rights, feminist issues, indigenous struggles, poverty, AIDS, and numerous other interrelated but “siloed” efforts. Without a shared vision for the future, it is difficult to imagine how diverse citizen initiatives could overcome fragmentation and exert influence on the shape of the emerging planetary civilization.[7]

[edit] Great Transition Initiative

The further development of the Great Transition scenarios, offering visions and pathways to a hopeful future, is carried on by the Great Transition Initiative (GTI). GTI is an international effort to advance a great transition to a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet. To raise awareness about the possibilities for systemic change and the role of human choice in creating a positive future, GTI elaborates alternative scenarios. GTI disseminates these coherent and plausible visions to reach those members of the general public who are apprehensive about the drift of global events and who may be responsive to a constructive framework for action. A key insight of this work is that scientific and technological improvements are not sufficient to create a just and sustainable world. Rather, science and technology must be integrally linked with cultural transformation and new ascendant values. In this sense, the emerging science of the coupled human-environment system must incorporate a normative element, understanding human values as a key internal feature of the system. Discussion of the coupled human-environment system must include issues of values, lifestyles, power structures and culture. By sharing coherent and plausible visions with concerned citizens throughout the world, the Great Transition Initiative responds to widespread apprehension about the future and inspires action towards a just and sustainable transition. The recent GTI Paper Series brings this analysis to thematic issues such as climate change, international security, trade, technology, feminism, global governance, transforming corporations, human well-being, and ecosystems.


[edit] Notes

  1. ^ Great Transition Initiative
  2. ^ Great Transition Initiative. 2007. Why a Great Transition
  3. ^ Global Scenario Group publications
  4. ^ Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2002. Great Transition: the Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead, p. 54.
  5. ^ Raskin, P. 2006. World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.
  6. ^ Byrd, D. 2006. What is a Human World? Earth and Sky
  7. ^ Kriegman, O. 2006. Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement Boston, MA: Tellus Institute


[edit] References

Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2002. The Great Transition: The Promise and the Lure of the Times Ahead. Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.


Raskin P. 2006 GT Today: A Report from the Future Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.

Rajan, C. 2006. Global Politics and Institutions Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.

White, A. 2006. Transforming the Corporation. Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.

Stutz, J. 2006 The Role of Well-Being in a Great Transition Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.

Revkin, A. C. 2002. Human Impact on the Earth – How Do We Soften It? International Herald Tribune and National Georaphic

Parris, T. M. 2002. A crystal ball for sustainability - Bytes of Note Environment Peterson G. 2007. Great Transition Papers. Resilience Science


[edit] External links

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