Talk:Grand supercycle

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I do love pseudoscience. 18.252.5.157 17:52, 11 November 2006 (UTC)

I cannot see how the 2000's can possibly be a K Winter. Kondratiev's own work showed a Winter beginning 1914-20. That would normally have ended around 1945, but most theorists would agree that it lasted until 1949, with a new Spring commencing in that year. Given the shortest time period for the K-Wave of 40 years that would mean a new Spring Phase beginning in 1989, and an Autumn Phase beginning in 1999, with the Winter beginning in 2009. With the longest time period for the wave of 60 years, then the new Spring Phase should have begin in 2009, but that would mean the Winter Phase should have begun in 1994, and now be almost over. Given any time period between the shortest 40 year and longest 60 year span of the cycle it is impossible to arrive at a Winter Phase beginning in 2000 or thereabouts.

In fact, a Spring Phase beginning in 1949 and last around 25 years until the mid 70's does appear to conform with the post war boom period, and the collapse of that boom into the slump of the 1970's, and protracted rcessions of the 1980's and early 90's. Trying to connect this to periods of Stock Market performance is a corruption of Kondratiev's work which was to do with cycles in the real eocnomy not in the fictional economy of Stock Markets.

ArthurBough 13:32, 30 November 2006 (UTC)