Friedman (unit)

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One Friedman Unit, also known as "one Friedman" or "one F.U.", equals six months in the future.[1]

The term is a tongue-in-cheek neologism coined by blogger Atrios (Duncan Black) on May 21, 2006,[2] in reference to the discovery by Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting (FAIR) of journalist Thomas Friedman's repeated use[3][4] of "the next six months" as the time period in which, according to Friedman, "we're going to find out...whether a decent outcome is possible" in the Iraq War. As documented by FAIR, Friedman had been making these six-month predictions since November 2003.

More broadly, many political observers measure any date-specific statement by a public figure regarding the future of Iraq or the Iraq War in Friedman Units, thus suggesting that the speaker's predictions of a near-term resolution of the Iraq War amount to that speaker's de facto defense of the status quo. Examples may involve troop withdrawals, the formation of government in parliament, the pacification of Baghdad, or merely an upcoming "critical time" in Iraq.

The term "Friedman Unit" (or "Friedman" meaning six months in the future) has been widely picked up in online media, and increasingly in print media.[dubious — see talk page] Editor & Publisher,[1] The American Prospect,[5] Think Progress (the official online publication of the Center for American Progress),[6] Daily Kos,[7] and Washington Monthly,[8] among others, have all made use of the term in their print or online editions, while the Huffington Post cited it as the "Best New Phrase" of 2006.[9]

In a live television interview aired 11 June 2006 on CNN, noted media-observer and TV host Howard Kurtz asked Friedman himself about the concept: "Now, I want to understand how a columnist’s mind works when you take positions, because you [Tom Friedman] were chided recently for writing several times on different occasions: 'the next six months are crucial in Iraq,' 'the next six months.' " (Watch the video or read the transcript.)


[edit] Examples

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Name Occupation Quotation-in-context FUs Begin date End date
Donald Rumsfeld U.S. Secretary of Defense "It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."

'TownHall Meeting' at Aviano Air Base, Italy"[10]

 0.03, 0.2, <1.0 February 7, 2003 September 6, 2004
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "The next six months in Iraq... are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time"[3] 1.0 November 30, 2003 May 30, 2004
Hillary Rodham Clinton U.S. Senator "The next six to seven months are critical."[11] 1.0 - 1.1 December 1, 2003 May-June, 2004
Tony Blair U.K. Prime Minister "The important thing is to realize we are about to enter into a very critical six months"[12] 1.0 January 5, 2004 July 5, 2004
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "What I absolutely don't understand is just at the moment when we finally have a UN-approved Iraqi-caretaker government made up of – I know a lot of these guys – reasonably decent people and more than reasonably decent people, everyone wants to declare it's over. I don't get it. It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what's the rush? Can we let this play out, please?"[3] 0.04, 0.17, 1.0 June 3, 2004 December 3, 2004
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "What we're gonna find out... in the next six to nine months is whether we have liberated a country or uncorked a civil war."[3] 1.0–1.5 October 3, 2004 April 3, 2005
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "Improv time is over. This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months. But it won't be won with high rhetoric. It will be won on the ground in a war over the last mile."[3] ~0.5 November 28, 2004 February - March, 2005
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador to Iraq "I think the next nine months are critical."[13] 1.5 June 29, 2005 March 2006
Chuck Hagel U.S. Senator "The next six months will be "very critical" in Iraq, he said."[14] 1.0 August 18, 2005 February 18, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think we're in the end game now.... I think we're in a six-month window here where it's going to become very clear"[3] 1.0 September 25, 2005 March 25, 2006
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador to Iraq "[W]e are on the right track to start significant reductions in the coming year.... I believe within 12 months, Iraq will be well on its way towards success, will have made significant progress from where we are today. "[15] 2.0 October 25, 2005 October 25, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "I think we have a six-month window here to get it right."[16] 1.0 November 27, 2005 May 27, 2006
John Warner U.S. Senator "we've got to stay firm for the next six months. It is a critical period..."[16] 1.0 November 27, 2005 May 27, 2006
John McCain U.S. Senator "we will probably see significant progress in the next six months to a year"[17] 1.0–2.0 December 4, 2005 June 4, 2006 - December 4, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think the next six months really are going to determine whether this country is going to collapse"[3] 1.0 December 18, 2005 June 18, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "Next six months are going to tell the story."[18] 1.0 December 18, 2005 June 18, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think that we're going to know after six to nine months whether this project has any chance of succeeding"[3] 1.0–1.5 January 23, 2006 July 23, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "I think we are in the end game. The next six to nine months are going to tell whether we can produce a decent outcome in Iraq."[3] 1.0–1.5 March 2, 2006 September 2, 2006
Thomas Friedman opinion columnist "we're going to find out... in the next year to six months - probably sooner - whether a decent outcome is possible"[3] 1.0 May 11, 2006 November 11, 2006
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador "The next six months will be critical in terms of reining in the danger of civil war. If the government fails to achieve this, it will have lost its opportunity"[19] 1.0 June 7, 2006 December 7, 2006
General Barry McCaffrey U.S. Military Academy "I think between now and Christmas [six months] is the crucial time."[20] 1.0 June 11, 2006 December 25, 2006
Joe Biden U.S. Senator "one year from now, if there is not significant progress... 'there's going to be really no prospect... of keeping any large number of American forces here.'"[21] 2.0 July 7, 2006 July 7, 2007
Lee Hamilton ISG Co-Chair "The next three months are critical."[22] 0.5 September 20, 2006 December 20, 2006
General George Casey U.S. Army "I don't have a date, but I can see over the next 12 to 18 months, the Iraqi security forces progressing to a point where they can take on the security responsibilities for the country, with very little coalition support."[23] 2.0 - 3.0 August 29, 2006 February 29, 2008
Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador "He has a window of a couple months...If the perception is that this unity government is not able to deal with this issue, then a big opportunity would have been lost"[24] 0.33 September 30, 2006 November 30, 2006
General George Casey U.S. Army "said that the next six months will be a decisive period that will determine Iraq's future"[25] 1.0 October 5, 2006 April 5, 2007
Tony Blair U.K. Prime Minister "Blair gives Iraq 12 months to be ready for handover"[26] 2.0 October 23, 2006 October 23, 2007
John McCain U.S. Senator "Mr. McCain said that the fate of the Iraqi venture would be decided in the next six months or so"[27] 1.0 November 13, 2006 May 13, 2007
General John Abizaid CENTCOM Commander "[A Senator] asked General Abizaid how much time the United States had to bring down the violence in Baghdad... the answer was four to six months"[28] 0.66-1.0 November 15, 2006 May 15, 2007
Mary Matalin Republican strategist "[S]ecurity is an essential precondition for a political solution... But we will be able to know in the next six months, although the sustained effort has to take longer than six months."[29] 1.0-? January 10, 2007 July 10, 2007
General George Casey US commander in Iraq "I think it's probably going to be late summer before you get to the point where people in Baghdad feel safe in their neighborhoods."[30] 1.0-1.3 January 19, 2007 late-August, 2007
John Boehner House GOP leader "I think it'll be rather clear in the next sixty to ninety days as to whether this plan's going to work."[31] 0.33-0.5 January 23, 2007 April 23, 2007
Norm Coleman U.S. Senator "Probably six months to a year, for everything. And I talked to some of my colleagues tonight, the military knows, I think they know, that they have to produce big-time over the next six months."[32] 1.0-2.0 January 24, 2007 July 24, 2007
Top advisors to Gen. David Petraeus in Baghdad "An elite team of officers, leading experts in counter-insurgency" "the US has six months to win the war in Iraq - or face a Vietnam-style collapse in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat."[33] 1.0 February 27, 2007 August 27, 2007

[edit] Related terms

Discussions about Friedman Units often bring about comparisons with the practice of punting in American football. Applied to the concept of the Iraq war, the offensive team has no viable way of advancing and has run out of options. By predicting critical changes over the coming Friedman Unit, the supporters are "punting" the issue into the future. This way they are postponing the need to make a decision and take officials and pundits to task for the lack of resolution or progress in the conflict.

[edit] References

  1. ^ a b "Friedman Finally Urges Fixed Date for U.S. Pullout", Editor & Publisher, 2006-12-07.
  2. ^ Atrios. "The Six Monthers", Eschaton, Sunday, May 21, 2006. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Tom Friedman's Flexible Deadlines. FAIR (5/16/06). Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  4. ^ Thomas Friedman. dKosopedia. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  5. ^ Klein, Ezra. "TAPPED", The American Prospect, December 8, 2006. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  6. ^ "Gen. Petreaus is in", Think Progress, February 28, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  7. ^ kos. "Midday open thread", Daily Kos, Nov 27, 2006. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  8. ^ Drum, Kevin. "Meltdown in Iraq...", The Washington Monthly, November 1, 2006. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  9. ^ Rachel Sklar, Nick Douglas, Sven Hodges, Melissa Lafsky, Ankush Khardori. "Media Winners of 2006: Honorable Mentions (Rapid-Fire Round II)", The Huffington Post, January 2, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  10. ^ http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0301/p99s01-duts.html
  11. ^ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/29/AR2005112901283_pf.html
  12. ^ http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/01/05/sprj.irq.britain.ap/index.html
  13. ^ http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/fabius_iraq_series_2006_part_I.htm
  14. ^ http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/08/18/hagel.iraq/
  15. ^ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec05/zalmay_10-25.html
  16. ^ a b http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10154103/
  17. ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10266650/
  18. ^ http://biden.senate.gov/newsroom/details.cfm?id=249944
  19. ^ http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,419978,00.html
  20. ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13189411/page/2/
  21. ^
  22. ^ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/09/20/MNGOAL8RES1.DTL&type=printable
  23. ^ http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-08-30-iraq-security_x.htm
  24. ^ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15069942/from/RS.2/
  25. ^ http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05102006/323/iraq-entering-decisive-six-months-general-casey.html
  26. ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1929000,00.html
  27. ^ http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/washington/14mccain.html
  28. ^ http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/world/middleeast/16policycnd.html?pagewanted=print
  29. ^ "President Bush Formally Unveils Plan To Beef Up War; House Approves Minimum Wage Hike; Iraq Will Likely Dominate 2008 Agenda", CNN.com Transcripts - The Situation Room, January 10, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  30. ^ David Cloud and John O'Neil. "U.S. general expects troop increase to end by summer", International Herald Tribune, January 19, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  31. ^ Sargent, Greg. "Boehner Sets Deadline For "Surge's" Success: Two To Three Months", TPM Cafe, Jan 24, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
  32. ^ 24 wurzerc soucoleman (RAM). publicradio.org.
  33. ^ Tisdall, Simon. "Military chiefs give US six months to win Iraq war", Guardian Unlimited, February 28, 2007. Retrieved on March 18, 2007.
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