Talk:Falsifiability

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Archive 1 to January 2004
Archive 2 to May 2006

Contents 1 Cause and Effect 2 Naïve Falsification 3 Conspiracy theories 4 Language too complex 5 "Contingent" is different from "Falsifiable" 6 The intro asserts the Popper POV 7 Why "many"? Explanation needed. 8 Macroevolution/Darwinism 9 Too technical 10 Not all swans are birds 11 Examples section is mostly original research 12 Nitpick on physics section 13 Forbid? 14 Necessary?

[edit] Cause and Effect

Is it true that the notion of cause and effect is not falsifiable? If one were to observe an effect with no apparent cause would one be able to conclude that cause and effect is false? Or would the general consensus be that the cause of the observed effect has simply not been discovered?

[edit] Naïve Falsification

I read this entire section, but am still unclear on what makes a falsification naïve; the term isn't clearly defined in its section.

[edit] Conspiracy theories

This sentance:

Conspiracy theories are often essentially unfalsifiable because of their logical structure.

makes no sense.
1) Conspiracy theories (like other theories) can have very different logical structures.
2) What does "often" mean? Often according to whom?
--Pokipsy76 09:44, 2 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Language too complex

"In science and the philosophy of science, falsifiability, contingency, and defeasibility are properties of empirical statements such that they must admit of logical counterexamples. This stands in contradistinction to formal and mathematical statements that may be tautologies, that is, universally true by dint of definitions, axioms, and proofs. No empirical hypothesis, proposition, or theory can be considered scientific if it does not admit the possibility of a contrary case."

The language here is too complex. It's full of philosophical buzz-words, which are supposed to make the writing sound precise and intelligent... but really we're just going to alienate anyone who hasn't already been schooled in this philosophical language. I'm going to try to dumb it down a bit. (e.g. "stands in contradistinction" = "contrasts")

[edit] "Contingent" is different from "Falsifiable"

In this article, we're acting like "contingent" and "falsifiable" mean the same thing. But they don't. A contingent statement is anything that's not a tautology (or a conclusion whose truth depends on whether the premises are true or false). So "grass is green or not green" is not a contingent statement (nor is it falsifiable).

However, "young children go through an Oedipal complex" *is* a contingent statement, even if it's not falsifiable. This statement is not true if young children don't go through an Oedipal complex, and therefore is contingent, even if there's no way to prove that young children don't go through an Oedipal complex. Thus it's possible for a statement to be contingent but not falsifiable.

I say these should have two separate articles.

Actually, it turns out "contingency" already is its own article, so I'm just going to delete it from this one.

[edit] The intro asserts the Popper POV

The intro says:

No empirical hypothesis, proposition, or theory can be considered scientific if it does not admit the possibility of a contrary case.

But this is the Karl Popper's POV, we can't assert the Popper's POV in the intro without specifying that it is controversial between scientist and philosophers.--Pokipsy76 18:16, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Agreed. That needs changin'.

[edit] Why "many"? Explanation needed.

Someone have replaced

Some philosophers and scientists, most notably Karl Popper, have asserted that no empirical hypothesis, proposition, or theory can be considered scientific if it does not admit the possibility of a contrary case.

to

Many philosophers and scientists, ...

on what grounds should "many" be preferred to "some"?
"Some" don't give any numerical information. "Many" meakes people think that they are "a lot", but a lot compared to what? An explanation si needed, otherwise I think we should return to the more neutral "some". --Pokipsy76 07:15, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

Maybe the words "A number of..." works here. It sounds to me like we're close to an objective summary sentence there. ... Kenosis 13:33, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

Apart from Popper what other scientists and/or philosophers had this point of view? Why does the article speaks just of Popper and the followers?--Pokipsy76 13:45, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

There are at least a few ways of saying this accurately. "Karl Popper, and others who followed in his line of reasoning, advocated ..." seems like a reasonably accurate one too. ... Kenosis 17:48, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

That would be OK, I think.--Pokipsy76 18:16, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

Agreed. Somewhere in that approximate range of language is a reasonably accurate presentation for the reader. Thanks, ... Kenosis 18:54, 23 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Macroevolution/Darwinism

Some have taken this principle to an extreme to cast doubt on the scientific validity of many disciplines (such as macroevolution and physical cosmology).

One of those "some", it might be worth pointing out, was Popper himself. From Unended Quest:

"From this point of view the question of the scientific status of Darwinian theory—in the widest sense, the theory of trial and error-elimination—becomes an interesting one. I have come to the conclusion that Darwinism is not a testable scientific theory, but a metaphysical research programme—a possible framework for testable scientific theories."

I know that this probably just giving another stick to intellectually dishonest Creationists, but as an honest intellectual I thought this might be worth pointing out. Popper later elaborated that he thought many of the individual theories developed within the framework of evolutionary theory are testable, but the overall framework itself he did not think was. It is not a rejection of Darwinism. As he later elaborated in "Natural selection and the emergence of mind":

"The fact that the theory of natural selection is difficult to test has led some people, anti-Darwnists and even some great Darwinists, to claim that it is a tautology. ... Since the explanatory power of a tautology is obviously zero, something must be wrong here ... I mention this problem because I too belong among the culprits, influenced by what these authorities say. I have in the past described the theory as 'almost tautological' and I have tried to explain how the theory of natural selection could be untenable (as is a tautology) and yet of great scientific interest. My solution was that the doctrine of natural selection is a most successful metaphysical research programme. It raises detailed problems in may fields, and it tells us what we would accept of an acceptable solution of these problems. I still believe that natural selection works in this way as a research programme. Nevertheless, I have changed my mind about the testability and the logical status of the theory of natural selection; and I am glad to have an opportunity to make a recantation."

Just thought I'd post that here, in case it motivated anyone to make any small adjustments. --Fastfission 13:46, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

Doesn't this selection of the article violate the wikipedia:words to avoid page under the extremist section? It implies that people take this method of thinking to an extreme, compared to someone else's definition of "not extreme." This term should be removed. Rockymountains 02:24, 6 October 2006 (UTC)Rockymountains

[edit] Too technical

I've read this page 3 times and I still can't fathom what falsifiability is... I think it needs a clear and simple definition at the beginning of the article. Kat, Queen of Typos 22:45, 9 November 2006 (UTC)

The introduction certainly needs a re-write. It was a gift from our good friend Jon Awbrey (talk • contribs),[1] who never used a five letter word when a half-dozen polysyllabic pronouns could say the same thing. Banno 22:02, 10 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Not all swans are birds

That a swan must be a bird (i.e. swan implies bird) implies that if it is not a bird, then it is not a swan. However, in some uses of this word "swan", it does not refer to birds at all, but rather:

“

2. (noun) Slang term for a female who was once unattractive but somehow became very attractive (referencing the "Ugly Duckling" story).

”

Of course, this does not change the fact that science works, regardless of variable meanings of the word "swan".Kmarinas86 03:55, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Examples section is mostly original research

I've restored the "needs sources" header to the Examples section. It all sounds quite nice, but the various analyses and the applications to various fields lack references from reliable sources. "So-and-so assesses falsifiability in such-and-such field thusly.(cite)" would be good. Multiple, concurring so-and-sos and thuslys would be better. What this section has, though, is almost entirely original analysis - which really does need to go. - Kelly Ramsey 08:22, 11 February 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Nitpick on physics section

The physics section of the article states that F=ma is sometimes taken to be a fundamental (yet falsifiable) law. As it turns out, it's already been falsified. Special relativity states that force is not actually equal to the mass of the object times its acceleration, but rather the derivative of its momentum with respect to time. Consider an object moving at 0.99999 times the speed of light. A force, no matter how large, will not accelerate it by much, but it will significantly alter its momentum. The only reason I didn't change the article is because I think it's valid, given the expected depth of the subject matter. Nevertheless, if there is someone who can elegantly incorporate special relativity's perspective into the article, I think it could be fruitful.--134.173.200.44 08:15, 15 February 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Forbid?

from the first bullets: "Falsifiable propositions must forbid an observation." How do falsifiable propositions forbid observations? I thought the very nature of such propositions was to admit of and rely upon observations, and conceivable counterinstances? Somaticvibe 19:04, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

Wikirot. Another article all gone to hell. Banno 19:35, 24 March 2007 (UTC)

An observation that would falsify the universal statement would have to be "forbidden" by it. That is to say, that if some observational requirement be met, the universal statement cannot be true and would therefore be rejected or falsified. What makes a universal statement falsifable, such as the statement that "All muslims must exist in Israel" would be the fact that they cannot be true if an observation is made of a situation that would be impossible if the statement were true (e.g. muslims are observed in Iraq). If a statement does not "forbid" an observation, it is not testable by observation simply because in that case there could not be an observation that would show it to be false. "Forbid" does not mean "prove impossible".Kmarinas86 05:00, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

To elaborate further, one of the reasons why scientists make any attempts to observe is that certain procedural methods of observation are believed to have the capacity to generate a result that is for or against a hypothesis. The observation is for the hypothesis (A: "Jumping off a cliff must cause me to fall even further below the level of that cliff") if it matches its expected (or deduced) result (e.g. I still fell as my head was below the altitude of the platform I jumped from). Falsification requires that an observation be forbidden (B: "It is impossible for one to observe me to jump off from one cliff and land on another one that was 5 feet away and 1 foot higher. One cannot see me do it."). Contradicting B would in turn contradict A. Modus tollens.Kmarinas86 05:19, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Necessary?

In the criticism section, an argument against Falsifiability is that "...falsifiability cannot distinguish between astrology and astronomy, as both make technical predictions which are sometimes incorrect." Would it make sense to respond to this saying that falsifiability might be a necessary condition rather than a sufficient one for something to be considered something?

I apologize for my lack of clarity. Feel free to go ahead and delete this if it doesn't make sense. Pete4512 07:21, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

Well there has been the impression among those who jump to conclusions that "Falsifiability is sufficient". However, that is not what the article says:

Popper uses falsification as a criterion of demarcation

And in the same way, it IS what the article says:

Verifiability came to be replaced by falsifiability as the criterion of demarcation

See, it's easy to get the wrong impression.

So, yes, it would make sense to point that out.Kmarinas86 08:36, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

There are other criteria, but falsifiability is a necessary criteria. Without it one cannot be certain whether one is dealing with objectively verifiable reality or with metaphysical and/or pseudoscientific speculations and beliefs. Belief often downplays experimentation and prefers to use rationalization, circular reasoning and speculation.

The process of creating knowledge involves the use of various rules of logic, used in such a manner as to sift through vast amounts of often confusing information, to produce universally useful bits of knowledge. These bits of knowledge can then be used, like building blocks, to build a reliable foundation upon which to base a repetition of the process. If some of the bits of knowledge in the foundation, with time, prove to be false, they are discarded.

Many of the rules of logic used by scientists are also used by quacks in everyday life. Otherwise they would not be able to communicate or function. So their rejection of scientific logic is somewhat hypocritical. Their immunity to cognitive dissonance allows them to at the same time be logical in one setting and illogical in another. They are simply less concerned than a good scientist is, with discerning the difference between perceived fact and proven fact. The importantce of falsification is not understood or deemed necessary by them. -- Fyslee (collaborate) 09:12, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

The new tightening of discussion and primary-source references to Popper and Watkins in Hypothetico-deductive model might clarify. --Thomasmeeks 00:47, 28 March 2007 (UTC)