Talk:Ethnic groups of the United Kingdom

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Contents 1 Demographic Transition and Beyond 1.1 My response 1.2 On Second Thoughts 2 Further issues regarding Demographic Transition. 3 Northern Irish Whites 4 Cornish People

[edit] Demographic Transition and Beyond

I've had to make ammendments to this - it seems to have been a bit hijacked by someone who has bought too much into simple 'constant variables' models of demographics. Predictions of White Minority are unlikely to come true this century, and our population being "replaced" is even more silly. The ethnic minority population will continue to rise as a proportion - by perhaps 2 - 3% per decade for the coming decades, although this is unlikely to continue beyond mid century due to declining birth rates amongst minority groups and a slow down in immigration. So from just over 8% minorities in 2001, maybe about 10.5% by 2011 and perhaps 20 - 25% by mid century. In any case the concept of "White British" is pretty dubious - many people defined as such have ancestry overseas, for instance Irish, Italian, German, Jewish etc.

[edit] My response

Perhaps you didn't read the references. I can recommend this one: Immigration and ethnic change in low fertility countries - towards a new demographic transition. 2005 (PDF)

“I've had to make ammendments to this - it seems to have been a bit hijacked by someone who has bought too much into simple 'constant variables' models of demographics.”

I did not “hijack” the section as you so emotively claim. If you read the above reference you will see that the model that I am using for these predictions (Version 2 for the UK) does not assume constant variables, but rather probablistic (the most likely) variables.

“Predictions of White Minority are unlikely to come true this century, and our population being "replaced" is even more silly.”

Allow me to quote the abstract verbatim: “Any population with sub-replacement fertility whose numbers are being maintained, or increased, by net immigration, is bound eventually to be replaced by a population of immigrant origin” This is a matter of common sense surely?

“The ethnic minority population will continue to rise as a proportion - by perhaps 2 - 3% per decade for the coming decades, although this is unlikely to continue beyond mid century due to declining birth rates amongst minority groups and a slow down in immigration. So from just over 8% minorities in 2001, maybe about 10.5% by 2011 and perhaps 20 - 25% by mid century.” Do you have any sources for these assertions? If so I would be grateful if you could direct me to them. One model used by Coleman and Scherbov suggests that ethnic minorities will make up 35% of the population by mid-century, a percentage in line with predictions for most other Western European countries.

From your additions to the article:

"Firstly, since these predictions were made, (they were made in 2005) the white British birthrate has risen leading to higher natural population growth.” The model used takes into account the increase in the white birthrate (with the TFR increasing from 1.66 to 1.85) “Secondly, ethnic minority population growth is likely to slow due to a decline in immigration from the peak years of the early 21st century,” the model takes this into account (relying on GAD predictions) “and through declining fertility amongst established immigrant groups” The model takes this into account.

“Assuming a constant white birth rate” No, it assumes an increase in white birthrate, which is why I wrote it.

There is a reason why the Demographic Transition section is the most referenced of the whole article. It is because I expected it to be controversial. I nonetheless feel it is factual. I feel that your amendments to it have decreased its accuracy.

I accept that the predictions may not come to fruition (if immigration is heavily constrained or ceases). They are nonetheless the most likely course of events. As you have provided no demographic data/references to back up your amendments, I have reverted them. Romper 22:47, 3 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] On Second Thoughts

Whilst I still maintain that the section represents the most likely outcome, I accept that there could be a need to temper it by pointing out that very radical changes to the variables would provide different outcomes. Perhaps something like this may suffice:

Two majors driving factors in this demographic transition are higher birthrates and different population age structures amongst minority groups when compared to the indigenous population. The most important factor however is immigration. The prediction envisaging a median date for whites being a minority of 2085 assumed a net immigration rate of 157,000 for 2005 (It actually turned out to be 185,000). It assumes that net migration will fall to 147,000 per annum by 2050 and remain constant at that rate until in end of the Century. This is similar to predictions by the UK Government’s Actuary Department.

Obviously these outcomes are not set in stone. Should immigration (the only variable even nominally affected by government policy) be heavily constrained or even cease, then the third demographic transition would slow down or perhaps even eventually cease. This outcome, however, is considered ‘a very unlikely one’.

Romper 00:19, 4 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Further issues regarding Demographic Transition.

On 30.1.2007 the sentence:

The process seems likely to continue, leading to the eventual replacement of the indigenous population with the newer groups.

Was amended to read:

The process seems likely to continue for the immediate future which leads many right wing alarmists such as the BNP to claim that the newer groups are going to utterly replace the natives.

This amendment is inappropriate for the following reason:

1) It is inappropriate to describe the BNP as right wing alarmist see Wikipedia: Words to avoid

2) This section of the article is not the appropriate place to discuss the BNP, their ideology or their tactics as it is a demographic analysis of the past and likely future trends in ethnicity in the United Kingdom.

3) It is clearly false to attribute the claim of ethnic replacement solely (if at all) to the BNP. Indeed is an unavoidable occurrence should current trends (of sub-replacement fertility and net foreign immigration) continue:

Any population with sub-replacement fertility attempting to maintain a given population size through immigration would accordingly, acquire a population of predominantly, eventually entirely immigrant origin. - Feichtinger/Steinmann 1993

Any population with sub-replacement fertility, whose numbers are being maintained, or increased by net immigration is bound eventually to be replaced by a population of immigrant origin. - Coleman and Scherbov 2005

4) The amendment, by adding the words for the immediate future, indicates the current situation (of sub-replacement fertility and net foreign immigration) is merely an aberration. This may indeed be the case but it seems unlikely. Sub replacement fertility looks set to continue:

Official projections are unanimous in expecting that average family size in the future will not exceed 1.85 or 1.9 (UN 2004; Eurostat 2005). Most demographers (although not this author) therefore believe that sub-replacement fertility is here to stay (e.g., Lesthaeghe and Willems 1999). - Coleman 2006 (in regard to EU countries)

Migration levels are harder to predict. Nonetheless net foreign immigration looks set to continue (Coleman 2006, Coleman and Scherbov 2005) and the indeed the UK Government’s Actuary Department assumes a net level of immigration of 145,000 per annum in perpetuity:

(The) long-term assumption for net migration to the United Kingdom is +145,000 each year - GAD 2005.

Thus I feel that:

The process seems likely to continue, leading to the eventual replacement of the indigenous population with the newer groups.

Is a better statement than:

The process seems likely to continue for the immediate future which leads many right wing alarmists such as the BNP to claim that the newer groups are going to utterly replace the natives.

As it better describes likely future events. I have thus changed it back again.

In future, I feel it would be desirable for any amendment to the Demographic Transition Section to be backed up by citations of relevant demographic data. This is because the current text is well referenced and unverified amendments tend to detract from its authority.

Romper 21:50, 31 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Northern Irish Whites

During the 2001 Census, the census forms for Northern Ireland had different ethnicity tick boxes to the other parts of the United Kingdom. They only had one tick box category to relate to all whites (obviously being the “White” category). This presents difficulties in breaking down the White group on a UK wide basis. Official ONS publications therefore do not do so, thus presenting an inaccurate picture of the ethnic make up of the UK. I had initially assigned all of the Whites of Northern Ireland to the “White British” category so that the UK wide data looked like this:

White British: 52,039,195 - 88.5% White Other: 1,423,471 - 2.42% White Irish: - 691,232 - 1.2%

In retrospect this may have been a mistake as technically Northern Ireland is not a part of the island of Britain and therefore it could be argued that none of it’s population could be considered “White British”. Moreover it could be politically contentious to categorise all of Northern Ireland’s Whites as British. It could be equally politically contentious, however, to categorise them all as “White Irish”. Thus I have gone with the only other option and assigned them the status of “Other White”. The UK wide data now looks like this:

White British: 50,368,207- 85.67% White Other: 3,094,459- 5.26% White Irish: - 691,232 - 1.2%

Romper 01:30, 3 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Cornish People

User 81.78.144.112 correctly points out that in the 2001 Census 37,000 people ticked the “Other White” category and wrote in Cornish. The ONS, however, would merely have re-categorised these people as “White British” in the published Census figures. Thus in order for the figures given in this Wikipedia article to be correct, either the “White British” group needs to have its number reduced by 37,000, or the figure given for the Cornish group needs to be removed. As Cornish was not an official Census category for ethnicity in 2001, I propose the latter course of action.

Romper 00:01, 3 January 2007 (UTC)

I have now enacted the latter course of action. Romper 22:49, 3 January 2007 (UTC)

'The Cornish were recognised by the government's ONS as an ethnic group on the 2001 Census - see Census 2001 Ethnic Codes, code 06 - but they have been invisibilised in previous censuses. They are an indigenous national minority of the United Kingdom and possessors of a recognised minority language of these islands under the Council of Europe's European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. If the UK government has made legal undertakings with the Council of Europe to take "resolute" action in support of this language, how on earth is it going to measure its compliance with international legal obligations with respect both to this language and to the people associated with it, if it does not include relevant tick boxes in forthcoming censuses ? - please see - Cornish demand 2011 Census tick box. 217.134.68.72 22:24, 30 January 2007 (UTC)

In answer to the above, I believe that the 37,000 who identified as Cornish, first had to deny being British by crossing out the British option, then write in Cornish in the "others" box. You are correct that the ONS would have merely re-categorised these people as "White British" in the published Census figures. Cornish ethnicity data from the 2001 Census 217.134.64.161 22:33, 31 January 2007 (UTC)

Individuals who wished to list their ethnicity as Cornish in the 2001 census would have had to tick the Any other white background and write in Cornish. This would have meant that they could not tick have ticked the box British under the section White. This could be construed requiring them to deny their British identitiy. Persons who did so would be classified as White British in published census data. The above matter arose from someone adding the ethnic group Cornish (with an accompanying figure of 37,500) to the bottom of the figures given for the 2001 census. This made the figures incorrect as the 37,500 people were effectively being listed twice, once as White British and once as Cornish. As Cornish was not a published census category for ethnicity in 2001, the entry ‘Cornish’ was removed.Romper 12:08, 1 February 2007 (UTC)