Talk:Demographic transition
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[edit] Stage 5
I remember that some geographers and economists discussed the possibility of adding a Stage 5 to the model. This would include highly developed countries like Sweden that have seen their birth rates fall below their death rates, leading to negative natural population growth. --Madchester 05:10, 18 September 2005 (UTC)
Blah
So we would have a stage five without a "stage four" , ... blah indeed --Melaen 11:12, 31 January 2006 (UTC)
Isn't it now accepted that there is a need for another stage other than the origonal 3. But why a 5th? Is there any substantial difference between stage 4 and 5?
[edit] First paragraph
the term demographic transition is used to describe the transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates that occurs as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. Usually it is described through the "Demographic Transition Model" that describes the population changes over time.
replace this clunky def with something better someone!
[edit] Role of contraception
In developing countries today access to contraceptives to prevent AIDS
Dont know if this is such an "important factor" in stage two as the article boldly asserts. Anyone know?? I thought data on the sucess or otherwise of AIDS prevention through contraception is unclear at best yet alone the correlation it has on econ development . Suggest this is deleted.
[edit] Economic burden of oldies
The large group born during stage two ages creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population
Not happy with the use of the word "burden", but im no economist so I dont want to change anything! The problem is institutional not a resource one ie the ratio of healthy working years to disabled years has not necessarily changed.
[edit] Further source
http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
Keith Montgomery has given permission for the contents of this page to be moved into Wikipedia.
[edit] no countries in Stage 1?
the article says that there are no countries still in stage 1. this is completely untrue, as developing countries such as ethiopia, bangladesh, some rainforest tribes, and other poor african countries are still in stage 1. --Danbrown99 19:31, 11 January 2007 (UTC)
- No, they are in stage 2, their mortality rates have fallen substantially. However, Bangladesh is in Stage 3 and will soon be in Stage 4, its TFR is 2.85 (see List of countries and territories by fertility rate)--Grahamec 01:31, 12 January 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Stage 2
What has happened to Stage 2?! 86.132.190.15 13:51, 25 March 2007 (UTC)
