Delphi effect

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The Delphi effect is described by Eric S Raymond in his book, "The Cathedral and the Bazaar" as follows:

"Sociologists discovered that the averaged opinion of a mass of equally expert or equally ignorant observers is quite a bit more reliable a predictor than the opinion of a single randomly-chosen one of the observers."

Raymond himself believes at least some of the work substantiating this effect was done at RAND Corporation. This may refer to the work on the Delphi Method or Technique described below.

The Delphi effect may also be related to the "delphi pool" concept introduced in the novel "The Shockwave Rider" by John Brunner, which is a work of fiction, and not backed up by scientific research.

[edit] Delphi Method or Technique

The "Delphi Effect" appears to be synonymous with the Delphi method. The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group, as opposed to individual, judgement of trends can improve the validity of forecasts. It was developed at RAND Corporation in the early 1950s in a project funded by the US Air Force. It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure.

[edit] External links

• "The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications" by Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff, Editors Linstone & Turoff, 1975 - a heavily referenced work on this method with an extensive biliography.
• Sackman, H., "Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process", R-1283-PR, April 1974. Brown, Thomas, "An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting", R-944-ARPA, 1972 - the first RAND paper.
• "Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.", Bernice B. Brown - an earlier paper published by RAND (Document No: P-3925, 1968, 15 pages)