Contraction and Convergence

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Contraction and Convergence (C&C) is a proposed strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Conceived by the Global Commons Institute in the early 1990's, the Contraction and Convergence strategy consists of reducing overall emissions of greenhouse gases to a safe level, 'Contraction', where the global emissions are reduced because every country brings emissions per capita to a level which is equal for all countries, 'Convergence'.

It is intended to form the basis of an international agreement which will reduce carbon emissions to avoid climate change. It is expressed as a simple mathematical formula. This formula can be used as a way for the world to stabilize carbon levels at any level. The supporters of Contraction and Convergence anticipate that future negotiations would focus solely on what that final level should be.

Contraction & Convergence is advocated by the Group of African Nations, the Governments of India and China, the European Commission and many other government bodies support Contraction & Convergence. In the UK, it is supported by over half of the MPs in parliament, and five of seven UK political parties, as well as many campaigners and groups from George Monbiot and Mayer Hillman to Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA).

The opposite of C&C is "Expansion & Divergence".

1 The Theory
2 Acceptable Concentration Levels
3 History
4 Implementation
5 References
6 External links

[edit] The Theory

Contraction & Convergence is a framework for reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming. It is based on the principles of equity and survival.

Contraction & Convergence is based on two principles: contraction of global carbon emissions and convergence of per capita emissions across the global population.

In contraction, the total annual emission of greenhouse gases reaches a ceiling, and then gradually contracts (look at the shape of the graph).

The convergence mechanism facilitates the distribution of emission entitlements across the world to converge on equality. At the end of the convergence period countries receive entitlements in proportion to the size of their population. Developed countries are the first to make large cuts in their emissions levels, whereas developing countries are permitted to keep increasing their emissions levels for a period before also beginning to cut their emissions (look at the way the traces on hte graph below converge).

[edit] Acceptable Concentration Levels

One of the advantages of Contraction and Convergence is that it allows for flexibility in its planning – the model can be employed with a variety of results, according to the atmospheric concentration of CO2 which it permits and the date by which convergence should occur.

We at the Climate Justice Project believe that the level at which the concentrations of greenhouse gases must stabilise is much lower than most estimates suggest – if atmospheric concentrations of CO2 stabilise at 550 ppmv, as suggested by the IPCC, we run the risk of entering a phase of runaway “climate feedback”, where one change sparks off another with unpredictable results. We believe that any measures taken on this incredibly serious issue should err on the side of caution, and that we should aim to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 350-450 ppmv.

It will not be easy to reach these targets – for the UK, individuals will have to cut their individual emissions by between 60% and 90%. However, we must do something – and we believe that Contraction & Convergence gives us the best chance of survival.

If Contraction & Convergence is to be internationally implemented, it would require global participation The implementation of Contraction & Convergence will help each individual to think about their energy usage year on year. The end goal is that every individual in the world will be entitled to emit the same amount of greenhouse gases – at a level much lower than today’s, in most countries.

[edit] History

Contraction and Convergence was developed, over a period of 3 years, in response to the UNFCCC's 1992 call for an equitable distribution of carbon emission rights among individual states or groups of states, in proportion to their population, with planned progress towards that objective by an agreed date. Between 1992 and 1995, at the request of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Global Commons Institute (GCI) discovered and presented an analysis on the growing trend of 'Expansion and Divergence', which revealed the increasing effect of global development and the asymmetry in development between developed and developing countries—ultimately suggesting that it was developing countries that would be worst affected by climate change. Contraction and Convergence was developed by the GCI to counteract the negative effects of this trend.

[edit] Implementation

The implementation of the framework begins with a full-term contraction budget for global emissions consistent with stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a pre-agreed concentration maximum deemed to be safe. Negotiations would then be used, between international regions (for example within the European Union, the African Union, the USA etc.) rather than on a worldwide level, to decide where these shares of emissions rights (starting out as equal shares per person) should go.