Contract year phenomenon
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Contract year phenomenon is a term used to describe the occurrence when athletes perform at a very high level in the season prior to their free agency eligibility. Most often, these athletes have seasons that are statistically better than previous years, but then once they sign their new contract, they return to their previous level of performance.
The contract year phenomenon is most associated with the NBA due to the league's high salaries and lengthy guaranteed contracts. This occurrence is sometimes seen in MLB, but it is almost never found in the NFL due to the league's relatively low salaries and most importantly, the lack of guaranteed contracts. NFL players who sign contracts with new teams and then don't perform can simply be released from their team.
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[edit] NBA Contracts
Since the late 1990's, NBA contracts have skyrocketed in dollar amounts and in length. Because of this, the amount of mediocre players receiving large contracts has rapidly increased in the last decade. The contract year phenomenon is usually associated with these types of players. The typical scenario involves a mediocre player, frequently a center, performing below his abilities for a few years until his contract is about to expire. He then plays very well that year and many teams assume he has finally "realized his potential". Because contracts in the NBA are typically for at least three years, a contract year player can feel comfortable knowing that one year of good play can secure them millions for years to come.
[edit] Erick Dampier
The primary example of a contract year phenomenon is Dallas Mavericks center Erick Dampier.[1] Prior to joining the Mavericks, Dampier spent seven years with the Golden State Warriors. During his first six years with the Warriors, Dampier averaged 8.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. Though his numbers were relatively solid, Dampier was a top 10 pick in the NBA draft making almost $7 million per year and thus did not live up to expectations. He also frequently missed games (between 1998-2000, he missed an average of 44 games per season) and his rebounding numbers dropped every year from 1997-2001. In his final year with the Warriors (his contract year), Dampier's production skyrocketed. He went from averaging 8.2 ppg and 6.6 rpg to 12.3 ppg and 12 rpg. He finished fourth in the league in rebounding, third in field goal percentage and first in offensive rebounds. He had essentially doubled his rebounds per game and had increased his typical average FG% by almost 10%.
For this performance, Dampier was awarded a 7-year, $73 million contract with the Mavericks. In his first season with the Mavericks, Dampier missed 23 games and his averages fell to 9.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg and he was not among the league leaders in any category. Then in the 2005-2006 season, Dampier bottomed out at 5.7 ppg and 7.8 rebounds. It was this drop in performance that lead many to cite Dampier as the primary example of the contract year phenomenon. Dampier is seen as a player who never really gave his all until it free agency came, and then once he got his new contract he went back to showing a noticeable lack of effort. What causes frustration for many fans in situations like this is that they know Dampier is capable of playing well if he wants to, but the majority of the time that is not the case.[2]
Other recent examples of the contract year phenomenon are NBA players Vince Carter, Jerome James, Mike James, Tim Thomas and Chris Wilcox. Because of players like Dampier, fans and sportswriters have become cynical of players with impending free agency who improve their performance after years of mediocre play.
[edit] Other Sports
Although the contract year phenomenon best applies to the NBA, in recent years some observers of MLB have begun applying the term to certain players. Many saw the 5-year, $64 million contract given to Adrian Beltre by the Seattle Mariners as an example of a player cashing in on free agency and then not putting forth a full effort. In his 2004 season (contract year) with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Beltre batted .334, hit 48 home runs and had 121 RBI. It was by far his best year, as in six previous seasons he had never hit above .290, never had more than 23 homers and he never batted in more than 80 runs. In his first year with Mariners, Beltre's average fell to .255 and he only hit 19 home runs. He is now seen as an overpaid bust by many Mariners fans.[3]
Because the NFL does not guarantee contracts, the contract year phenomenon is rarely seen. NFL players can conceivably play well in their contract years and be rewarded, but if their play suffers or they become injured, they can be cut from their teams. There are still salary cap penalties for the teams who signed the player, but the player himself is not paid. Also, the team-oriented nature of the NFL sometimes prohibits individuals from showing off their skills to prospective bidders. An NBA center can easily show off his skills and demonstrate individual dominance on the court, while sometimes good NFL players will not stand out on their team unless they play an offensive skill position.
