Talk:Climate sensitivity

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[edit] I reviewed the allegedly independent observational contraints on climate sensitivity

All citations, including (surprisingly) Shaviv are to some extent based on models, with Shaviv explicitly relying upon Gregory for part of his work. Gregory explicitly relied upon models for his estimate of heat flux into the ocean for the late 19th century, and based other assumptions on model insights and results. Annan relied upon models to analyze the maunder minimum, and also mistakenly assumed the maunder was long enough to achieve equilibrium, which is contradicted by climate commitment studies, which estimate closer to 1000 years.--Poodleboy 07:25, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] AR4

According to the draft of the fourth IPCC, current models favor a climate sensitivity of about 3 degrees C, with a narrowing of the range from previous versions. See page 8-42: "As discussed in Chapter 10, the current generation of AOGCMs covers a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity from 2.1 to 4.4°C (with a mean value of 3.2°C, Table 8.8.1, Chapter 10, Box 10.2)". This page should be updated to reflect newer work, at least once the final draft of the IPCC is released. -- 207.71.226.132 19:00, 12 February 2007 (UTC)

Better to use the SPM, which is released. I've updated the page William M. Connolley 19:49, 12 February 2007 (UTC)