China and weapons of mass destruction

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The People's Republic of China is estimated by the U.S. Government to have an arsenal of about 150 nuclear weapons as of 1999, which matches the Chinese government statement that it possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal amongst the five major nuclear-weapon states. China releases little other information regarding its nuclear weapons, which has lead some sources to suggest that China might have as many as 2000 nuclear warheads, and others as low as 80.

China's first nuclear tests took place in 1964, continuing until 1996 when it signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China denies having either biological or chemical weapons, having acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1984, and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997.

Contents

[edit] Chemical weapons

China signed the CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention) in January 13, 1993. The CWC was ratified April 25, 1997. [2]

[edit] Biological Weapons

China is currently a signatory of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and Chinese officials have stated that China has never engaged in biological activities with offensive military applications however it is widely reported to have an active biological weapons program. [1]

Kanatjan Alibekov, former director of one of the Soviet germ-warfare programs, said that China suffered a serious accident at one of its biological weapons plants in the late 1980s. Alibekov asserted that Soviet reconnaissance satellites had found a biological weapons laboratory and plant near a site for testing nuclear warheads. The Soviet assumed that two separate epidemics of hemorrhagic fever that swept the region in the late 1980s were caused by an accident in a lab where Chinese scientists were weaponizing viral diseases. [2]

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed her concerns over possible Chinese biological weapon transfers to Iran and other nations in a letter to Senator Robert E. Bennett (R-Utah) in January 1997[3]. Albright stated that she had received reports regarding transfers of dual-use items from Chinese entities to the Iranian government which concerned her and that the United States had to encourage China to adopt comprehensive export controls to prevent assistance to Iran's biological weapons program. The United States acted upon the allegations on January 16, 2002, when it imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms accused of supplying Iran with materials used in the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons. In response to this, China issued export control protocols on dual use biological technology in late 2002. [4]


[edit] Nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons
One of the first nuclear bombs.

History of nuclear weapons
Nuclear warfare
Nuclear arms race
Weapon design / testing
Effects of nuclear explosions
Delivery systems
Nuclear espionage
Proliferation / Arsenals
States

US · Russia · UK · France
China · India · Pakistan
Israel · North Korea
South Africa
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[edit] Nuclear policy

China is one of the five "nuclear weapons states" (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which China ratified in 1992. China is the only NWS to give an unqualified security assurance to non-nuclear-weapon states:

"China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances." [3]

Chinese public policy has always been one of "no first use" while maintaining a deterrent retaliatory forced targeted for countervalue targets.

[edit] 2005 white paper

In 2005, the Chinese Foreign Ministry released a white paper stating that the government would not be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and in any circumstances. In addition, the paper went on to state that this "no first use" policy would remain unchanged in the future and that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones.

[edit] Nuclear weapon history

The fireball from the "596" test.
The fireball from the "596" test.

Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Several declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency's Defense Estimative Brief estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads [4]. A 1993 National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles [5]. The Defense Intelligence Agency's The Decades Ahead: 1999 - 2020 report estimates the 1999 Nuclear Weapons' Inventory as between 140 and 157 [6]. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that China had about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the United States [7]. In 2006 a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimate presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee was that "China currently has more than 100 nuclear warheads." [8]

China's first test of a nuclear device took place on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site. China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra, the yield of the 1996 test was 1-5 kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.

China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the U.S.'s W88 nuclear warhead design as well as guidance ballistic missile technology. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made without espionage.

Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, as of 2005 the various estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2000. In 2004, China stated "among the nuclear-weapon states, China...possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal," implying China has fewer than the United Kingdom's 200 nuclear weapons.[9]. Several non-official sources estimate that China has around 400 nuclear warheads. However U.S. intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations. [10]

Because of its expanding economy and vast resources, it is believed that China's nuclear arsenal can grow exponentially should it be necessary.

[edit] Estimates

[edit] 2006 FAS & NRDC Report

The following table is an overview of PRC Nuclear forces taken from a November 2006 report[5] by Hans M. Kristensen Robert S. Norris, and Matthew G. McKinzie of the Federation of American Scientists and the National Resource Defense Council titled Chinese Nuclear Forces and and U.S. Nuclear War Planning. Further notes with regards to the table can be found by examining the report.

Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2006
China Designation U.S./NATO Designation Year Deployed Range (kilometers) Warhead x yield Missiles deployed Warheads deployed
Land-based missiles
DF-3A CSS-2 1971 3,100 1 x 3.3 Mt 16 16
DF-4 CSS-3 1980 5500 1 x 3.3 Mt 22 22
DF-5A CSS-4 Mod 2 1981 13,000 1 x 4-5 Mt 20 20
DF-21A CSS-5 Mod 1/2 1991 2,150 1 x 200-300 kt 35 35
DF-31 (CSS-X-10) 2006? 7,250+ 1 x ? n.a. n.a.
DF-31A n.a. 2007-2009 11,270+ 1 x ? n.a. n.a.
Subtotal 93 93
Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)**
JL-1 CSS-NX-3 1986 1,770+ 1 x 200-300 kt 12 12
JL-2 CSS-NX-4 2008-2010 ? 8,000+ 1 x ? n.a. n.a.
Subtotal 12 12
Total strategic ballistic missiles 105 105
Aircraft***
Hong-6 B-6 1965 3,100 1-3 x bomb 100 20
Attack (Q-5, others?) 1 x bomb 20
Subtotal 40
Short-range tactical weapons
DF-15 CSS-6 1990 600 1 x low ~300  ?
DH-10? (LACM) 2006-2007 ? ~1,500 ? 1 x low ? n.a. n.a.
Total ~145

[edit] 2006 DoD Annual PRC Military Report

The following are estimates from the United States Department of Defense 2006 report to congress concerning the Military Power of the People's Republic of China

China’s Missile Inventory

Total

 Launchers/

Missiles

 Estimated Range
CSS-4 ICBM 20/20 8,460+ km
CSS-3 ICBM 10-14/20-24 5,470+ km
CSS-2 IRBM 6-10/14-18 2,790+ km
CSS-5 MRBM Mod 1/2 34-38/19-50 1,770+ km
JL-1 SLBM 10-14/10-14 1,770+ km
CSS-6 SRBM 70-80/275-315 600 km
CSS-7 SRBM 100-120/435-475 300 km
JL-2 SLBM DEVELOPMENTAL 8,000+ km
DF-31 ICBM DEVELOPMENTAL 7,250+ km
DF-31A ICBM DEVELOPMENTAL 11,270+ km

[edit] Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles

Although unconfirmed, most Western analysts believe China has deployed anywhere from 18 to 36 Dongfeng 5 ("East Wind") intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) since the 1980s. The Dongfeng 5 is a single-warhead, three-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of 12,000-15,000 km. In 2000, General Eugene Habiger of the U.S. Air Force, then-commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, testified before Congress that China has 18 silo-based DF-5s. [11] Since the early 21st century, the Second Artillery Corps have also deployed 12+ Solid-fueled mobile DF-31 ICBM with a range of 8,000-10,000km and up to 3 MIRV[12]. China is also developing the DF-41, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000-13,000 km and an estimated 3-6 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability. The U.S. Department of Defense assessed in 2004 that the DF-41 would be deployed sometime before 2020. However, due to the lessening of political tensions, the DF-41 development may have been postponed or even completely ceased development.

[edit] Medium Range Ballistic Missiles

Approximately 55% of China's missiles are in the medium range category, targeted at regional theater targets.

[edit] DF-3A/CSS-2

Main article: DF-3A

[edit] DF-21/CSS-5

Main article: DF-21

[edit] Long Range Ballistic Missiles

The Chinese categorize long range ballistic missiles as ones with a range between 3000-8000km[5]

[edit] DF-4/CSS-3

Main article: DF-4

The Dong Feng 4 or DF-4 (also known as the CSS-3) is a long-range two-stage Chinese Intermediate-range ballistic missile with liquid fuel (Nitric acid/UDMH). It was thought to be deployed in limited numbers in underground silos beginning in the 1970s and early 1980s. The Dong Feng 4 has a takeoff thrust of 1,224.00 kN, a takeoff weight of 82000 kg, a diameter of 2.25 m, a length of 28.05 m and a fin span of 2.74 m. The range of the Dong Feng 4, which is equipped with a 2190 kg nuclear warhead with 3300 kt explosive yield, is 4,750km. The missile uses inertial guidance, resulting in a relatively poor CEP of 1,500 meters.

[edit] Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missiles

[edit] DF-5A/CSS-4 Mod 2

Main article: DF-5

The Dongfeng 5 or DF-5 is a 3 stage Chinese ICBM. It has a length 32.6 m and a diameter of 3.35 m. It weighs in at 183,000 kilograms and it has an estimated range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometers. The DF-5 had its first flight in 1971 and was in operational service 10 years later. One of the downsides of the missile was that it took between 30 and 60 minutes to fuel.

[edit] DF-31/CSS-X-10

Main article: DF-31

The Dong Feng 31 (a.k.a. CSS-9) is a medium-range, three stage, solid propellant intercontinental ballistic missile developed by the People's Republic of China. It is a land-based variant of the submarine launched JL-2. It is operated by the Second Artillery Corps (SAC) which is estimated to have 8-12 missiles in inventory[2].

[edit] Nuclear Cruise Missiles

The US DoD estimated in 2006 that the PRC was developing ground and air launched cruise missiles that could easily be converted to carry nuclear warheads once developed[6].

[edit] DH-10

Main article: DH-10

The DongHai 10 (DH-10) is a cruise missile developed in the People's Republic of China. According to Jane's Defense Weekly, the DH-10 is a second-generation land-attack cruise missile (LACM), with over 1,500 km range, integrated inertial navigation system, GPS, terrain contour mapping system, and digital scene-matching terminal-homing system. The missile is estimated to have a circular error probable (CEP) of 10 meters.

[edit] Sea-based weapons

The submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) stockpile of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is thought to be relatively new. China launched its first second-generation nuclear submarine in April 1981. The navy currently has a 1 Type 092 Xia class SSBN at roughly 8000 tons displacement. A second Type 092 was reportedly lost in an accident in 1985. The Type 092 is equipped with 12 JL-1 SLBMs with a range of 2150-2500 km. The JL-1 is a modified DF-21 missile.

The Chinese navy is developing the Type 094 ballistic missile submarine, it is reported at least 1 of these have been completed. This submarine will be capable of carrying 16 of the longer ranged, more modern JL-2s with a range of approximately 8000 km.

[edit] Heavy bomber group

The Xian JH-7 fighter-bomber
The Xian JH-7 fighter-bomber

China's bomber force is mostly comprised of Chinese-made versions of Soviet aircraft. The People's Liberation Army Air Force currently has 120 H-6s (a variant of the Tupolev Tu-16). These bombers are outfitted to carry nuclear as well as conventional weapons. The Chinese have also produced the Xian JH-7 Flying Leopard fighter-bomber (currently about 80 are in service) capable of delivering a nuclear strike. China has also bought the more advanced Sukhoi Su-30 from Russia; currently, about 100 Su-30s (MKK and MK2 variants) have been purchased by China. The Su-30 is capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ Roland Everett Langford, Introduction to Weapons of Mass Destruction: Radiological, Chemical, and Biological, Wiley-IEEE, 2004
  2. ^ William J Broad, Soviet Defector Says China Had Accident at a Germ Plant, New York Times, April 5, 1999
  3. ^ Leonard Spector, Chinese Assistance to Iran's Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Programs, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, 1996
  4. ^ Nuclear Threat Initiative, Country Profile: China
  5. ^ a b The Federation of American Scientists & The Natural Resources Defense Council Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning 202, 67 [1]
  6. ^ U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2006, May 23, 2006, pp. 26, 27.

[edit] See also

[edit] External links

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