Causal layered analysis

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Causal layered analysis (CLA) is one of several futures techniques used as a means to inquire into the causes of social phenomena and to generate a set of forecasts as to the future course of the phenomena.

As a theory, CLA seeks to integrate empiricist, interpretive, critical and action learning modes of knowing (loosely, science, social science, philosophy and mythology). As a method, its utility is not in predicting the future but in creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures. It is also likely to be of use in developing more effective — deeper, inclusive, longer term — policy.

Causal layered analysis consists of four levels: the litany, social causes, discourse/world-view and myth/metaphor.

1. The first level is the litany – the official unquestioned view of reality.
2. The second level is the social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this level.
3. The third level is the worldview/discourse. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. The way in which different stakeholders construct the litany and system are also explored.
4. The fourth level is the myth-metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue. The challenge is to conduct research that moves up and down these layers of analysis and thus is inclusive of different ways of knowing. Doing so allows for the creation of authentic alternative futures and integrated transformation. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future.

[edit] See also

• Futures studies
  • Futures techniques
  • Failure mode and effects analysis
• Fault tree analysis
• Inspiration Software
• Unintended consequence

[edit] External links

• An article by Sohail Inayatullah describing Causal Layered Analysis can be found at "Causal Layered Analysis: poststructuralism as method" http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/vanhat/MeSe2000/mesepapers/Inayatullah.pdf
• A description of the methodology can be found at http://www.scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html

Inayatullah, Sohail. 2003. “Causal Layered Analysis: Unveiling and Transforming the Future” in J.C. Glenn and T.J. Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology version 2.0. Washington, D.C.: AC/UNU Millennium Project