California's 50th congressional district special election, 2006
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A special election was held in the 50th Congressional District of California to choose a new member of the United States House of Representatives to replace Randy Cunningham, who resigned November 28, 2005 after pleading guilty to bribery, wire fraud, mail fraud, and tax evasion charges. (On March 3, 2006, he was sentenced to eight years and four months in a federal prison). The special primary election was held on April 11, 2006. If a single candidate had won a simple majority, he or she would have served out the rest of Cunningham's term. As no candidate won a simple majority, the top vote-getters in each party, Francine Busby for the Democrats and Brian Bilbray for the Republican competed in a runoff or special general election, held on June 6, 2006. Bilbray won the special election (49% to 45%) and was sworn in on June 13, 2006 as a member of the Congress. Busby and Bilbray also both won their party's primaries, held the same day, and faced each other again in the November 2006 general election, in which Bilbray won re-election.
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[edit] National implications?
Because the 50th is considered to be a heavily Republican district, it would have been considered major news if Busby had won.[1] "This is a biggie," said Carl Luna, a political science professor at San Diego's Mesa College. "Everyone is going to be reading the tea leaves as a predictor of November." [2] For that reason, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $5 million on this race. [3]
[edit] Controversies
During the campaign, Arizona Senator John McCain cancelled a planned fundraiser for Bilbray at the last minute, after Bilbray criticized McCain's immigration bill as "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. [4] Later, Senator McCain contributed money to Brian Bilbray's campaign and voiced a radio commercial for the National Republican Congressional Committee in support of Bilbray's race against Ms. Busby [5].
On June 2, five days before the special congressional election, Busby was recorded telling a largely hispanic group that "You can all help--you don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help." This comment was in response to a question by a man who asked in Spanish, "I want to help, but I don't have papers."[6] The recording was circulated over the Internet and on radio. Republicans claimed Busby was encouraging people to vote illegally, while Busby claimed she misspoke and meant that a person does not need to be a registered voter to help her campaign (such as phoning registered voters). [7]
A number of irregularities in the election were alleged, including the swearing in of Bilbray by a member of his own party 17 days before the election was certified, "electronic voting machines sent out to the homes and cars of volunteers for up to 12 days prior to the election, and irregular election results like huge mega-precincts of absentee ballots where turnout was thousands of percent more than registered voters." A lawsuit demanding a recount is in progress. [8]
[edit] Post Special-Election analysis
Political Analyst Larry Sabato wrote: "What a difference four percentage points makes! That was Bilbray's margin over Busby, a gaffe-prone, lackluster candidate who was out of her league. With six years (1995-2001) under his belt from another California House district, former congressman Bilbray understood what it took to win a tough campaign, and riding the immigration issue, he did so. The DCCC forced the NRCC to pull out all the stops and spend a large fortune for Bilbray, but given the dam that might have burst had Busby won, it was worth every GOP penny for them." [9]
[edit] Run-off and Primary elections
The June 6, 2006 run-off was held at the same time as the primary election for the biennial November 7, 2006 general election. This created a peculiar opportunity for voters to vote on the same ballot for two different people for the same post; one to immediately fill the vacant seat, the other to run in the November election.
[edit] Polling
| Source | Date | Francine Busby (D) | Brian Bilbray (R) | Other | None | Undecided | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | May 30 to June 1, 2006 | 45% | 47% | 9% | 0% | 4.7% | |
| LRP (Dem) | May 12-15, 2006 | 47% | 40% | 1% | 12% | 4.9% | |
| Survey USA | May 5-7, 2006 | 45% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 4.8% | |
| Moore (Rep) | April 29-30, 2006 | 43% | 37% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 5% |
[edit] Results
On April 11, Democrat Francine Busby garnered 43.75 percent of the vote, 6.26 percentage points short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. She faced the leading vote getter from the two other parties participating: Republican Brian Bilbray and Libertarian Paul King, as well as independent candidate William Griffith, in a June 6 runoff.
In the June 6 runoff, Republican Brian P. Bilbray received a plurality with 60,319 votes (49.33%) to become the district's congressman for the remainder of the 109th Congress. He will serve until January 3, 2007. Elections will be held again in November to select the district's next congressman.
In the June 6 general election primary (for November's election), Busby and Bilbray each captured their party's nomination (as did Libertarian Paul King and Peace and Freedom candidate Miriam E. Clark).
- Official Results for the April 11 special primary election
| Candidate | Occupation | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francine Busby* | Cardiff School Board member | Democratic | 60,010 | 43.74% |
| Brian Bilbray* | Former Congressman | Republican | 20,952 | 15.27% |
| Eric Roach | Businessman | Republican | 19,891 | 14.50% |
| Howard Kaloogian | Former State Assemblyman | Republican | 10,207 | 7.44% |
| Bill Morrow | State Senator | Republican | 7,369 | 5.37% |
| Alan Uke | Businessman | Republican | 5,477 | 3.99% |
| Richard Earnest | Former Del Mar Mayor | Republican | 2,957 | 2.16% |
| Bill Hauf | Business Owner | Republican | 2,207 | 1.59% |
| Scott Turner | Former professional football player | Republican | 2,041 | 1.49% |
| Chris Young | Law student and former bank vice president | Democratic | 1,808 | 1.32% |
| William Griffith* | Carlsbad High School teacher | Independent | 1,111 | 0.81% |
| Victor E. Ramirez | Former judge | Republican | 912 | 0.66% |
| Paul King* | Small Business Owner | Libertarian | 819 | 0.60% |
| Jeff Newsome | California Highway Patrol sergeant | Republican | 574 | 0.42% |
| Scott Orren | Military Defense Consultant | Republican | 345 | 0.25% |
| Delecia Holt | Intelligence Security Analyst | Republican | 261 | 0.19% |
| Bill Boyer | Businessman | Republican | 204 | 0.15% |
| Milton Gale | Retired ship inspector | Republican | 58 | 0.04% |
*Advanced to the runoff Election
- Official Results for the June runoff election
| Candidate | Job | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bilbray* | Former Congressman | Republican | 78,341 | 49.57% |
| Francine Busby | Cardiff School Board member | Democratic | 71,146 | 45.02% |
| William Griffith | Carlsbad High School teacher | Independent | 6,027 | 3.81% |
| Paul King | Small Business Owner | Libertarian | 2,519 | 1.59% |
*Winner
- April 11 results from the County of San Diego Registrar of Voters[10]
- June 6 runoff results from California Secretary of State [11]
[edit] References
- ^ "Washington Whispers: GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race", US News and World Report, June 5, 2006.
- ^ Perry, Tony. "Key Race Is Seen as a Test of GOP's Vulnerability", Los Angeles Times, May 30, 2006.
- ^ "Campaign: Spin on Special Election Begins", The Hill, June 8, 2006.
- ^ "McCain Pulls out of Bilbray Fundraiser", San Diego Union-Tribune, 2006-05-31
- ^ "McCain Cancels Appearance at Bilbray Event"2006-06-04
- ^ Dodge, Dani. "Busby on defense, says she misspoke", San Diego Union-Tribune, June 3, 2006.
- ^ http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/50thdistrict/20060603-9999-1mi3busby.html
- ^ Congressional Election Nullified – Nobody Noticed, Scoop (news website), 25 August 2006
- ^ Sabato, Larry. "Election Exceptions: Which 2006 contests will frustrate the national trend?", University of Virginia Center for Politics, June 15, 2006.
- ^ http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml
- ^ http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml
[edit] See also
| California 2006 Elections |
|---|
| US Senate • US House • 50th CD Special Election • Governor • State Senate • State Assembly • Courts of Appeal • Local Elections |
