Backcasting

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article or section does not adequately cite its references or sources.
Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. (help, get involved!)
Any material not supported by sources may be challenged and removed at any time. This article has been tagged since October 2006.

Whereas Forecasting is the process of predicting the future based on current trend analysis, Backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction. Typically, several alternative scenarios are examined -- usually representing different normative (or desirable) states. The question is then asked, if we want to arrive at Scenario A, what trends would need to change to get us there. Usually, quantitative analysis provides a feasibility or plausibility assessment. For example, if Scenario A was future in which CO2 emissions were stabilized at Xppm and Scenario B was CO2 stabilization at Yppm -- quantitative analysis could help assess which one was more plausible under any given set of assumptions. This would be backcasting.