A Short History of Progress

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The book A Short History of Progress, written by Ronald Wright and published in 2004, grew out of the 2004 Massey Lectures. It describes in particular how four historical civilisations – those of Easter Island, Sumer, the Maya and Rome – self-destructed due to a lack of foresight and to wrong choices. Wright argues "each time history repeats itself, the price goes up".

In analysing his four cases, Wright notes that two civilisations (Easter Island and Sumer) failed due to depletion of natural resources: "their ecologies were unable to regenerate". The other two failed in their heartlands, "where ecological demand was highest", but left remnant populations that survived. He asks: "[w]hy, if civilizations so often destroy themselves, has the overall experiment of civilization done so well"? For the answer, he says, we must look to natural regeneration and human migration (Wright, p. 102).

While some ancient civilisations depleted their ecologies and failed, others thrived. Large expanses of the planet remained unsettled and available for migration. Some civilizations had greater longevity due to other factors, evident in both Egypt and China (pp 103–104):

  • the abundance of resources (topsoil, for example)
  • farming methods (ones that worked with, rather than against, natural cycles)
  • settlement patterns

Changes brought on by the exponential growth of human population – over six billion by 2006 – and adding over two hundred million people every three years – and by the world-wide scale of resource-consumption have altered the picture, however. Ecological markers indicate that human civilisation has surpassed (since the 1980s) nature's capacity for regeneration. Humans in 2006 used more than 125% of nature's yearly output annually: "If civilization is to survive, it must live on the interest, not the capital of nature" (p. 129). Wright concludes: "now is our chance to get the future right"; the collapse of human civilisation appears imminent if we do not act now to prevent it (p. 132).

Wright has sold the rights to a Canadian film company for a forthcoming adaptation.

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