Talk:2006 Pacific hurricane season/September

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Contents 1 Week 1 1.1 92E.INVEST 2 Week 2 2.1 13E.Lane 2.1.1 93E.INVEST 2.1.2 13E.NONAME 2.1.3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E 2.1.4 Tropical Storm Lane 2.1.5 Hurricane Lane 2.1.6 Major Hurricane Lane 2.2 El Niño Develops 2.3 94E.INVEST 3 Week 3 3.1 14E.Miriam 3.1.1 95E.INVEST 3.1.2 14E.NONAME 3.1.3 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E 3.1.4 Tropical Storm Miriam 3.2 02C.NONAME 3.2.1 94C.INVEST 3.2.2 02C.NONAME 3.2.3 Tropical Depression Two-C 3.3 96E.INVEST 4 Week 4 4.1 03C.NONAME 4.1.1 95C.INVEST 4.1.2 03C.NONAME 4.1.3 Tropical Depression Three-C 4.2 96C.INVEST

Week 1

92E.INVEST

New invest at 7N(!) 107W. -- RattleMan 09:02, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

Not bad looking. One to watch. – Chacor 09:06, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

The NHC doesn't seem very interested in it, though. It hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet. bob rulz 20:58, 5 September 2006 (UTC)

Gone some while ago from the NRL. Gosh, the EPac now seems to be chilling out after 12 cyclones. --§ Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(talk + contribs + userboxes)} 03:19, 8 September 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

13E.Lane

93E.INVEST

Tropical wave that has been mentioned in the last few TWOEPs. Most models do something with the system, including landfall in Mexico. – Chacor 17:53, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

There's plenty of thunderstorm activity and convection. If it could just organize it would have no problem becoming a tropical cyclone. bob rulz 21:51, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

Finally some activity after a lull, it looked like the Atlantic had been catching up. Lane on the way? CrazyC83 23:40, 12 September 2006 (UTC)

Not that this hasn't been said before, but this thing looks quite impressive [1] and NHC's latest outlook says it has gained organization. This one has the best chance to break the silence. But I'm kind of enjoying the Atlantic parade of fishspinners. It was nice to see that basin get a word in edgewise. The Pacific couldn't stay hot forever. The sealife out there needed a break anyway, not to mention Mexico. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 00:15, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

TWO now says that it could become a tropical depression soon. I assume that it would be on the danger graphic if I actually knew how to access that. bob rulz 06:10, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

NHC → Eastern Pacific (out to 140°W) → Forecasts and Analyses → Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas – Chacor 06:13, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued. – Chacor 16:01, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

13E.NONAME

Now listed on NRL. Should be TD13-E at the next advisory. CrazyC83 19:46, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Looks like 13E/Lane may become a threat to Mexico in the coming days. EDIT: Is it just me, or is 13E/Lane forming in nearly the EXACT SAME area as Lane of 2000? Freaky. Jake52 My talk 19:50, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Man, some chill out, 6 days. Kristy dissipated September 7th. :> For maybe we'll have Lane already. Its gonna probably be our 13th depression. This day last year we were up to Jova and Kenneth aka TD 12-E was 1 year tommorrow.Mitchazenia 20:18, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E

Confirmation by the NHC! -- WmE 21:09, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

>:>:>:> This rocks-looks like a John-clone headed for Gulf of Cali.Mitchazenia 21:45, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Indeed this looks like it could be impressive. We have a huge early-season trough dropping down into the Western U.S...is it possible it could get drawn up into the Southwest U.S.? Troughs rarely, if ever, make it this far south in September, but it's a possibility to consider. I would love rains from the remnants of a tropical cyclone (I wasn't around for Olivia in '84; I'd like another one like that. 7 inches of rain?! yes, please!) bob rulz 21:50, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

The NHC is calling again for another hurricane within 48 hours. Could be a re-run of John, jogging up to Baja California. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:46, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Unlikely. It's only predicted to reach mid-range Cat 1 strength and stay away from the coast. —Cuiviénen 04:56, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane in the 11 PM intermediate advisory. --Coredesat talk! 06:03, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Wow, it just jumped up to 60mph. That's impressive, considering it's still hard to locate a center and doesn't look too healthy. However, the chances of Lane and/or its moisture moving into the Southwest U.S. is increasing with every forecast. bob rulz 21:48, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Hurricane warnings for Las Islas Marías. Lane will, like John, need an article - land impact is rare in the Pacific. However, at this moment there's very little to work on. See User:Chacor/Sandbox/13E LANE 2006 - it's very little to work with. – Chacor 09:36, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Here is a some, I am sure more will come today. Reuters, AP. --Holderca1 11:10, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane

Upgraded to a 70 kt hurricane in the 2 PM advisory. --Coredesat talk! 21:51, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane? Is that a turning off Tornado Alley?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 22:18, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Category 2 now.--Nilfanion (talk) 00:08, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

It's already had a fatality reported too. Considering its track, it has the potential to be a lot worse than John. Maybe enough to get its name retired? I almost think that it warrants the main article Hurricane Lane, but borderline cases are difficult to make such decisions. Most of last year's retired Atlantic hurricanes were no-brainers. CrazyC83 00:19, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, it looks set to plough right into the mainland. Looks like it's time to make another trip to the Spanish Wikipedia. Pobbie Rarr 00:24, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

I agree, but I know no Spanish so I cannot help at all there. (English native, French-2 here) CrazyC83 00:28, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Looks like this could be a problem. Mexican citizens are sure to be in bad luck for the El Nino season, unfortunately. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:01, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

To make things worse, the NHC now calls for Category 3 status. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:04, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

I made an article: Hurricane Lane (2006). Feel free to update there as info comes in. Hurricanehink (talk) 03:04, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

You'll need an image, I'll try to help out by getting an NRL image for you. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:09, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Actually I've already got an image but it sucks. I hope someone will get a better image or NASA gets on of its high-res images. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 03:26, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Lane

100kt and 960 mb from NRL. Jake52 My talk 07:11, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Lane may make it in time for the 2 AM PDT advisory unless the NHC interrupts a special advisory. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 07:40, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

New Dvorak estimates are T6.0/6.0. That's 115 kt!!! -- WmE 13:09, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

It's making landfall right now, officially at 110kt. Pobbie Rarr 19:03, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

With 125 mph winds, Lane is sure to be hitting Mexico within the day. — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 19:09, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

It has now officially made landfall as a category 3 hurricane. How long has it been sicne a major hurricane made landfall in Mexico? bob rulz 20:18, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Technically, Wilma, though the last major that made landfall on the Pacific side of Mexico was Kenna in 2002. Hurricanehink (talk) 20:20, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Now we wait for the damage reports to come in. Let's hope they are less than expected. CrazyC83 20:22, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

The thing is forecast to head to Culiacán...^[2] Titoxd^(?!?) 21:13, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane was the first major hurricane to make landfall in Mexico since Kenna in 2002. This one looks almost as bad, if not as strong. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 13:53, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

El Niño Develops

New ENSO update says that El Niño has developed and will likely continue into early 2007. -- RattleMan 17:21, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

Aha, I knew it. And so did everybody else. Finally, it's confirmed. bob rulz 21:17, 13 September 2006 (UTC)

94E.INVEST

New Invest in EPac! -- WmE 18:32, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

12.3ºN 121.2ºW, area west of Tropical Storm Lane -- グリフオーザー 18:35, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Looks brutal right now! I can't see nothing coming out of this. CrazyC83 03:29, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Week 3

14E.Miriam

95E.INVEST

New invest to the SW of Lane, at 17N 115.5W. -- RattleMan 23:25, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

14E.NONAME

TWOEP:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY.

NRL has it as 14E.NONAME. – Chacor 11:22, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E

Special advisory confirms it. – Chacor 12:02, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Miriam

The NRL has 14.E Miriam! — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody _{(T + U + E + C)} - (Remembering 9/11) 19:16, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Since the NHC model package and NRL (which uses NHC data) have Miriam, I've changed the header. Pay attention to the disclaimer I've commented out. --Coredesat talk! 19:32, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

How is Lane going to impact her? CrazyC83 20:19, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

The only possible effect I can see by Lane on Miriam is the former's cool wake causing the latter to weaken. Pobbie Rarr 20:22, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

The 5-day track is confusing. Is she, or is she not going to hit the Baja? I'd like to know if this could be another Hurricane John, or just some small nuisance to them. -24.92.41.95 21:57, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Probably gonna be a mini-Emilia. íslenskur fellibylur #12 _(samtal) 23:24, 16 September 2006 (UTC)

Looks likes it's going to be a dud. ~Pikachu9000 00:40, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

The LLC has completely decoupled. It looks so bad, it got a Dvorak rating of T1.1 from the CIMSS ADT. --Coredesat talk! 06:58, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

And the consecutive hurricanes streak ends at five, six if you count Ioke. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 13:49, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

02C.NONAME

94C.INVEST

New invest for the Central Pacific just up on NRL. Jake52 My talk 20:44, 14 September 2006 (UTC)

Interestingly enough, this cluster of convection was enhanced by the remnant low of Kristy, which drifted into the convection the other day and has since been absorbed (which means that this disturbance isn't a continuation of Kristy). At least it won't be able to give Dr. Avila any headaches. --Coredesat talk! 02:03, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

Interesting, so it would get Two-C if it developed (which, IMO, is not out of the realm of possibility). CrazyC83 03:30, 15 September 2006 (UTC)

94C's still out there, and it appears to be getting better organized. --Coredesat talk! 19:32, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

TCFA. --Coredesat talk! 20:36, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

Here we go!! -- WmE 20:39, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

CPHC seems to agree:

"1000 AM HST MON SEP 18 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A tropical disturbance about 650 miles south of South Point Hawaii is moving west near 10 mph, and has shown improved organization over the past 12 hours. Conditions appear favorable for further development, and a tropical depression may form within the next 24 hours." -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:13, 18 September 2006 (UTC)

02C.NONAME

NRL says we have 02C.NONAME, waiting for CPHC to confirm. --Coredesat talk! 00:53, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

That's signs of a developing El Nino for sure. What was the last non-El Nino year with more than one system forming in the CPac? CrazyC83 01:20, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

2000, when Atlantic had 15 storms. Hurricanehink (talk) 01:28, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

I think 2000 was an impressing year. It had 2 CPac Storms, 17 EPac storms and 15 Atlantic storms. 201.130.189.229 02:27, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-C

Official now from CPHC. Re. name:

FOR WHAT IT MATTERS...IF TD-2C CAN ACHIEVE 35KTS IT WILL BE NAMED
KIKA (KEE-KAH)...EMPHASIS ON FIRST SYLLABLE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
MEANINGS FOR THIS WORD...AS A NOUN IT MEANS A SMALL OPELU FISH AND
AS A VERB ONE MEANING IS STRONG AND ENERGETIC. THE VERB FORM IS THE
ONE THAT WOULD BE MOST FITTING...ESPECIALLY IF IT DECIDES TO BECOME
A HURRICANE.

– Chacor 02:52, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

I'd have to agree with that last assessment...Well, um, wow. This is pretty cool. The numerous comparisons to Ioke made in that long discussion certainly got my attention. Ioke was amazing to watch and I could hardly expect that this go-round, but I think another hurricane in the Central Pacific would be very exciting. This thing is a piece of crap now but Tropical Depression Nine in 2004 AHS looked pretty disgusting too at the outset, so anything can happen. That's kinda the way I like it when there's no land in the way. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:16, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

The tropics are fickle. Anything can happen. CrazyC83 03:32, 19 September 2006 (UTC)

No longer expected to become a TS. I wonder what happened? As the CPHC said, nil shear and 28-29 degree waters. Just goes to show that even perfect environmental conditions don't necessarily mean storms will form. – Chacor 14:47, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

At the same time, it could just as easily strengthen once more. To add to Eric's point, Tropical Depression Ten in the 2005 AHS was as good as dead until... Pobbie Rarr 16:04, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

Officially gone.Mitchazenia 21:22, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

Well, shit. That's surprising. The forecaster who wrote the last advisory discussion sounded like he was writing a eulogy in the last paragraph: "THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN ON TWO-C UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TWO-C WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN HISTORY WITH MANY OTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT FELL SHORT OF A PROMISING FUTURE. PROOF THAT DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY POWERFUL NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...IT TAKES A VERY DELICATE BALANCE WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE ONE ACTUALLY DEVELOP." -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 22:15, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

looks like a depression again, nice convection near 12N 167W -- グリフオーザー 07:23, 21 September 2006 (UTC)

The CPHC has mentioned the possibility of redevelopment. Convection has flared up a bit. —Cuiviénen 03:52, 22 September 2006 (UTC)

getting close to the West Pacific area, about 176W right now. Still has a nice convection center. -- グリフオーザー 06:54, 23 September 2006 (UTC)

Wow. The blob now seems to have regenerated already. May become a depression in the WPac... — Alastor Moody _{(T + C + U)} 07:57, 23 September 2006 (UTC)

CPHC: The disturbance will move west of the dateline and out of the central Pacific later today. -- グリフオーザー 21:13, 23 September 2006 (UTC)

It's crossed the dateline (please correct me if I'm wrong) but NRL classifies it under CPac, and it's now 02C.NONAME again. SpLoT 10:19, 24 September 2006 (UTC)

NRL and FNMOC will continue to classify it as 02C.NONAME, even if it's a disturbance or remnant low. FNMOC has this in the WPac. – Chacor 10:41, 24 September 2006 (UTC)

Japan Meteorological Agency has it as a tropical depression 10N 177E

correct me if I am wrong. -- グリフオーザー 22:12, 24 September 2006 (UTC)

96E.INVEST

Just appeared. bob rulz 22:08, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

NHC says it's a piece of crap, but it could develop in the long run. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 22:19, 20 September 2006 (UTC)

Still there and very ugly. Its certinly taking time.'''''Mitch-A-Zenia''''' 21:03, 22 September 2006 (UTC)

4 more days-what a fighter.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 21:46, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

Gone.HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 18:33, 29 September 2006 (UTC)

Week 4

03C.NONAME

95C.INVEST

That area of clouds the CPHC has been monitoring ever since 02C developed is now an INVEST. CPHC seems to like its chances. – Chacor 14:06, 25 September 2006 (UTC)

Does it have much of a window? TD2-C didn't get a chance...until it reached the WPac. CrazyC83 04:25, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

03C.NONAME

NRL has it up. Jamie|C 19:26, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

It hasn't much time to develop before crossing the dateline though. -- WmE 20:11, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-C

Official now. Expected to stay a TD and cross the dateline within 36 hours. --Ajm⁸¹ 21:03, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

If it crossed the dateline and then strengthened to a tropical storm, would it get a W Pacific or a C Pacific name? Jamie|C 21:11, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

It would get a WPac name. -- WmE 21:19, 26 September 2006 (UTC)

The last time a depression formed in one basin of the Pacific and received a name in another was in 2000, when a WPac TD-19W became Tropical Storm Wene. The last time an EPac depression received a CPac name was in 1992, when TD-18E became Hurricane Iniki. The last time a CPac depression received a WPac name was in 1985, when TD-2C became Typhoon Skip. Although theoretically possible, no EPac depression has crossed into the WPac and received its name there. No CPac depression has received an EPac name. The only CPac systems to cross the boundary are Hurricane 12 in 1975 and Tropical Storm Ema in 1982. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 01:48, 27 September 2006 (UTC)

Dissipating at advisory 3 from CPHC at 179.9W. JMA calls it a tropical depression at 180. – Chacor 09:42, 27 September 2006 (UTC)

The remnant has almost re-entered the CPac and seems seemed to be heading east. – Chacor 20:08, 27 September 2006 (UTC)

Well, now heading west in the WPac. Still a JMA TD. – Chacor 02:08, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

Makes sense. I was really shocked it made it to TD3-C...give it that much credit. CrazyC83 03:13, 28 September 2006 (UTC)

96C.INVEST

And another Invest in the CPac. -- WmE 19:14, 27 September 2006 (UTC)