United States House elections, 2006 - predictions

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Elections for the United States House of Representatives were held on November 7, 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. This article discusses predictions for outcome of House races as a whole. Individual races that were notable are discussed in detail (a paragraph or so, each) at United States House elections, 2006; that article also has information on the results of the election.

The predictions below were those made just before the election was held.

Contents

[edit] Summary of analyses

Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" — the race was not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" — the race was not competitive, but might become competitive if new political factors intervened.
"Leans" — the race was competitive, but one candidate had a clear advantage.
"Tossup" — neither candidate had a clear advantage.

Source Safe Democratic Democratic Favored Leans Democratic Tossup Leans Republican Republican Favored Safe Republican
CQPolitics.com
as of Nov 6		 182 Democratic Seats 16 Democratic seats
1 Republican seat		 5 Democratic seats
9 Republican seats		 23 Republican seats 20 Republican seats 22 Republican seats 157 Republican seats
Cook Political Report
as of Nov 6		 182 Democratic Seats 13 Democratic seats 6 Democratic seats
5 Republican seats		 1 Democratic seat
38 Republican seats		 12 Republican seats 13 Republican seats 165 Republican seats
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
as of Nov 6
(← and → show trends)		 193 Democratic seats 6 Democratic seats
1→
3 Republican seats		 4 Democratic seats
1→
26 Republican seats
←5		 (none) 31 Republican seats
←10 - 3→		 10 Republican seats 162 Republican seats
Majority Watch (final)
as of Oct 30		 198 seats 24 seats 18 seats 2 seats 10 seats 6 seats 177 seats
Rothenberg Political Report
(← and → show trends)
as of Nov. 6		 197 Democratic seats 1 Democratic seat
3 Republican seats		 1 Democratic seats
6 Republican seats		 3 Democratic seats
←3
37 Republican seats
←8 10→		 3 Republican seats 8 Republican seats 166 Republican seats
Electoral-vote.com
as of Nov. 6		 203 Democratic seats
36 Republican seats		 1 Republican seat 195 Republican seats
Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls
as of Nov. 6		 227 seats 4 seats 204 seats

[edit] Market-based indicators

[edit] Tradesports

Tradesports offers a contract on the Republicans retaining control of the House. On Tuesday, November 7 at 09:31 PM GMT it was indicating a probability of 16.1% that the Republicans will retain the House.[5]

[edit] Iowa Electronic Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets offers four contracts covering all possible outcomes of the House and Senate elections.

As of 9:15 PM GMT, Tuesday, November 7, 2006, the two contracts predicting Republican control of the House were trading at $0.140-0.219 and $0.002-$0.010 respectively. Adding these values resulted in a probability of between 14.2% and 22.9% of Republicans retaining control of the House.[6]


[edit] Details of non-partisan election analyses

Because of the large number of individual races covered by nation-wide political services, these analyses often were a week or two behind the results obtained by local polling organization, but are still very useful.

[edit] Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, listed 89 seats - 68 currently held by Republicans and 21 by Democrats - as being potentially in play.[1]

As of November 6, 2006:

  • 347 seats were Solid and therefore not considered competitive.
  • 13 Republican seats were considered Likely Republican and 13 Democratic seats were considered Likely Democratic, meaning that while these races were not competitive at the moment, they could become competitive.
  • 12 Republican seats were considered Lean Republican and 5 Democratic seats were considered Lean Democratic, as they were politically competitive, but one party had a distinct advantage.
  • 5 Republican seats (the open seats being vacated by Bob Beauprez, Sherwood Boehlert, Jim Kolbe, Bob Ney and Jim Nussle) were considered Lean Democratic. No Democratic seats were considered Lean Republican.
  • 38 Republican seats, and 1 Democratic seat, were considered Toss Up

[edit] CQPolitics.com

CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, at the end of November 6, 2006, made the following analysis:[2]

[edit] Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

In early August, Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 12-15 seats in the House. In mid-October,[3] he revised his estimate, predicting a net gain for the Democrats of 18-22 seats. On October 26, he revised his estimate to 21-26[4], November 2, he upped his estimate to 24-30[5], and on the day before the election, he raised it to 25-33[6] with the following breakdown:

  • R Seats Likely R (10): CO-06 (Tancredo), FL-08 (Keller), FL-09 (OPEN), IN-03 (Souder), MI-07 (OPEN), MN-02 (Kline), NH-01 (Bradley), NY-03 (King), OH-12 (Tiberi), WV-02 (Capito)
  • R Seats Leaning R (13): CA-04 (Doolittle), CA-50 (Bilbray), CO-05 (OPEN), IL-10 (Kirk), IA-02 (Leach), KY-02 (Lewis), NV-02 (OPEN), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NY-29 (Kuhl), NC-08 (Hayes), VA-10 (Wolf), TX-23 (Bonilla), WA-05 (McMorris)
  • R Seats Toss-up, slight edge to R (17): AZ-01 (Renzi), KS-02 (Ryun), KY-03 (Northup), MN-01 (Gutknecht), MN-06 (OPEN), NE-03 (OPEN), NV-03 (Porter), NY-19 (Kelly), NY-25 (Walsh), NY-26 (Reynolds), OH-01 (Chabot), PA-04 (Hart), PA-08 (Fitzpatrick), VA-02 (Drake), WA-08 (Reichert), WI-08 (OPEN), WY-AL (Cubin)
  • R Seats Toss-up, slight edge to D (18): AZ-05 (Hayworth), CA-11 (Pombo), CO-04 (Musgrave), CT-02 (Simmons), CT-04 (Shays), CT-05 (Johnson), FL-16 (OPEN), FL-22 (Shaw), ID-01 (OPEN), IL-06 (OPEN), IN-09 (Sodrel), KY-04 (Davis), NH-02 (Bass), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-20 (Sweeney), OH-02 (Schmidt), OH-15 (Pryce), TX-22 (OPEN)
  • R Seats Leaning D (9): FL-13 (OPEN), IN-02 (Chocola), IA-01 (OPEN), NY-24 (OPEN), NC-11 (Taylor), OH-18 (OPEN), PA-06 (Gerlach), PA-07 (Weldon), PA-10 (Sherwood)
  • R Seats Likely D (3): AZ-08 (OPEN), CO-07 (OPEN), IN-08 (Hostettler)
  • D Seats Likely R (0): None
  • D Seats Leaning R (0): None
  • D Seats Toss Up, Slight edge to D (1): GA-12 (Barrow)
  • D Seats Leaning D (3): GA-08 (Marshall), IL-08 (Bean), IA-03 (Boswell)
  • D Seats Likely D (6): IN-07 (Carson), LA-03 (Melancon), OH-06 (OPEN), TX-17 (Edwards), VT-AL (OPEN), WV-01 (Mollohan)

[edit] Electoral-vote.com

Electoral-vote.com was a site run by Andrew Tanenbaum, a professor of computer science at Vrije Universiteit. While it mostly covered Senate races in 2006, it also made algorithmic predictions for the House based entirely on independent polling data. (Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results were used).
As of November 2, Electoral-vote.com was predicting 38 Democratic pickups and no Republican pickups.
His calculations predict the House to comprise: 240 Democrats, 193 Republicans, 1 Ties. The Democratic pickups are: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08[7]

[edit] Pollster.com

"Mystery Pollster" Mark Blumenthal and University of Wisconsin Professor Charles Franklin aggregated polling data for more than 60 competitive house races[8] and offered objective analysis on the methodology and the reliability of the numbers. On October 1, 2006, it began to post the most recent polls for these 60+ districts as soon as they were released to the public.

[edit] Majority Watch

Majority Watch is a non-partisan poll from RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics.[9] Their polling is done by automated voice-recognition (IVR) of likely voters.

[edit] Rothenberg Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report is a non-partisan analysis of American politics and elections. Stuart Rothenberg is a regular columnist in Roll Call. On Nov 6 he predicted a Democratic gain of 30-36 seats, with the following breakdown:[7]

  • Pure Toss Up - 19 Republican seats: CA 11 (Pombo, R), CT 2 (Simmons, R), CT 4 (Shays, R), FL 16 (Open; Foley, R), FL 22 (Shaw, R), IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R), KS 2 (Ryun, R), MN 1 (Gutknecht, R), MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R), NM 1 (Wilson, R), NY 26 (Reynolds, R), OH 1 (Chabot, R), OH 2 (Schmidt, R), PA 4 (Hart, R), PA 6 (Gerlach, R), PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R), TX 22 (Open; DeLay, R), VA 2 (Drake, R), WI 8 (Open; Green, R)
  • Toss Up/Tilt Republican
  • 10 Republican seats: - AZ 1 (Renzi, R), CA 4 (Doolittle, R), CO 4 (Musgrave, R), ID 1 (Open; Otter, R), KY 3 (Northup, R), KY 4 (Davis, R), NV 3 (Porter, R), NY 25 (Walsh, R), NY 29 (Kuhl, R), WA 8 (Reichert, R)
  • Toss Up/Tilt Democratic
  • 8 Republican Seats: AZ 5 (Hayworth, R), CT 5 (Johnson, R), FL 13 (Open; Harris, R), IN 9 (Sodrel, R), NH 2 (Bass, R), NY 20 (Sweeney, R), NY 24 (Open; Boehlert, R), NC 11 (Taylor, R)
  • 3 Democratic Seats: GA 8 (Marshall, D), GA 12 (Barrow, D), IL 8 (Bean, D)
  • Leans Republican - 3 Republican Seats: NJ 7 (Ferguson, R), OH 12 (Tiberi, R), TX 23 (Bonilla, R)
  • Leans Democratic
  • 6 Republican Seats: IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R), IN 2 (Chocola, R), OH 15 (Pryce, R), OH 18 (Open; Ney, R), PA 7 (Weldon, R), PA 10 (Sherwood, R)
  • 1 Democratic Seat: IA 3 (Boswell, D)
  • Republican Favored - 8 Republican Seats: CA 50 (Bilbray, R), CO 5 (Open; Hefley, R), KY 2 (Lewis, R), NE 3 (Open; Osborne, R), NV 2 (Open; Gibbons, R), NY 3 (King, R), NY 19 (Kelly, R), WY AL (Cubin, R)
  • Democrat Favored
  • 3 Republican Seats: AZ 8 (Open; Kolbe, R), CO 7 (Open; Beauprez, R), IN 8 (Hostettler, R)
  • 1 Democratic Seat: VT A-L (Open; Sanders, D)

[edit] politicalforecasting.com

At politicalforecasting.com [8], predictions for the 2006 House of Representatives elections were categorized by method (e.g., statistical models, prediction markets) and averaged within and across methods to arrive at the Pollyseat, the number of seats the Republicans are expected to lose on November 7th. As of October 30th, the Pollyseat value stood at 21. In other words, the Republicans were expected to lose control of the House of Representatives.

[edit] unfutz: Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls

Ed Fitzgerald, at his blog, unfutz, compiled a summary of several dozen forecasters, with statistics and charts.

[edit] Polling map - November 6, 2006

The map below shows the latest polling information as of November 6, 2006, for House races. No party polls included. Darker colors indicate stronger support. Where no polls were available, last year's election results were used. If two polls tied for most recent, the longer poll was used.

[edit] References

  1. ^ http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_nov6.pdf
  2. ^ Complete chart of all races categorized by CQPolitics.com
  3. ^ [1]
  4. ^ [2]
  5. ^ [3]
  6. ^ [4]
  7. ^ http://www.electoral-vote.com/
  8. ^ http://www.pollster.com/house.php
  9. ^ http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php
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