Timeline of the future in forecasts

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Timeline of the future in forecasts is a list by future chronology of various predictions. As prominent writers, social thinkers, politicians and scientists have all shared with the world their visions of the future, some of these individual predictions have been completely off the mark, while others have been rather accurate. However, taken together, they paint a picture of changing perceptions about various aspects of the future in our society and provide insight into aspirations and beliefs of their authors. Also, sometimes such predictions appear realistic enough to warrant a closer look.

Below is a comprehensive list of major future events, including technological inventions and scientific advances, that were repeatedly predicted by various authors, but that have not yet come into being. The list is centered not around the authors, but around specific events. In most cases alternative time estimates offered by other authors are provided. Since the futurist authors come from very different backgrounds (academic research, science fiction writing, politics, philosophy), the accuracy, realism and relevancy of their forecasts vary. The qualifications and bias of different authors are explained.

Contents 1 The list of future events (structured by topic) 1.1 Artificial intelligence and robotics 1.2 Biology 1.3 Communications 1.4 Computing 1.5 Nanotechnology 1.6 Transportation 1.7 Space 1.8 Virtual reality 2 See also

[edit] The list of future events (structured by topic)

Currently technological forecasts only :

See [1] for a list of forecasts by the G. Washington University TechCast

[edit] Artificial intelligence and robotics

• Robots capable of manual labor tasks--
  • 2007 - a cooking robot in some restaurants (2018 is private homes), Pansum, developers of AIC, 2006 [2]
  • 2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004 [3]
  • 2021 - automated (or autonomous) heavy machinery robots working on a worksite, Mark Pflederer, CTO at Caterpillar Inc. [4]
  • 2029 - robots performing most household tasks, Dr. Joanne Pransky, a robotics expert [5]
  • 2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain, 2003 [6]
  • 2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot [7]
• Military robots
  • 2015 - one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots (US Department of Defense, 2006, [8])
  • 2035 - first completely autonomous robot soldiers in operation (US Department of Defense, 2006, [9])

• • 2019 - Ray Kurzweil, 1999
  • 2020 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2050 - Hans Moravec, 1999 [10]
• 2045 - The Singularity occurs - Ray Kurzweil
  • 2050 - RoboCup mission statement, 1997 [11]

[edit] Biology

• Artificial eyes--
  • 2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004) [12]
• Use of animal organs for transplantation--
  • 2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that aren't rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004)
  • 2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source)
• Rejuvenation of mammals
• Regenerative medicine
  • Widespread use for most tissues and organs - 2020 (Federal Initiative for Regenerative Medicine), [13]
  • 2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice [14]
• Cloning of dinosaurs
  • 2023 - (Arthur C. Clarke, 2001)
• Reverse engineering of human brain--
  • 2008 - accurate simulation of the cortical column (Blue Brain Project, 2005 [15])
  • 2025 - Ray Kurzweil, 2005 [16]

[edit] Communications

• All communications are IP-based
  • 2008 - internal company plans (British Telecom, 2004)
  • 2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004 [17]

[edit] Computing

• 1 PetaFLOPS supercomputer IBM (2007)
  • 2008 - Cray current project (2006) [18]
  • 2006 - Riken Japan (July 2006) (NEC MDGrape-3) [19]
• 10 PetaFLOPS supercomputer (the amount required to simulate the human brain according to Kurzweil)
  • Japan (2010)

[edit] Nanotechnology

• Nanomachines used in fabrics and armor
  • 2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton. US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004
• Universal replicator is developed
  • 2040 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001

[edit] Transportation

• Self-driving cars
  • 2008 - General Motors, 2005 - driving in heavy traffic at 100 km/h. [20]

[edit] Space

• Space flights become available to the general public
  • 2011 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 - originally Clarke expected it to happen by 2001 (described in 2001: A Space Odyssey)
  • See also: private spaceflight
• Space hotel under construction
  • 2006-2008 - plans of American motel tycoon Robert Bigelow, 2004 [21] [22]
  • 2014 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2024 - "many thousands of people being able to afford" visiting orbital hotels, Burt Rutan, 2004 [23]
• Space elevator
  • 2020 - Bradley C. Edwards (head of Institute for Scientific Research), 2004 [24]
  • Arthur C. Clarke once said that the space elevator "will be built about 10 years after everybody stops laughing".
• Return to the Moon
  • 2015 - Russian plans - Energia Corporation (2006), [25]
  • 2020 - NASA plans first return to the Moon no later than 2020 (2006) [26]
  • 2024 - Chinese plans (2006) [27]
• Human landing on Mars
  • 2020 - MIT's Aeronautics and Astronautics department, 2005 [28] [29]
  • 2021 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001
  • 2025 - a permanent Mars colony, 4Frontiers, 2005 [30]
  • 2030 - NASA observer predictions, 2004
• Asteroid mining
  • 2024 - Peter Diamandis, founder of Ansari X Prize, 2004 [31].
• Near light-speed travel
  • 2095 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001: "Space drive, a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space time"

[edit] Virtual reality

• Full immersion virtual reality using direct input to the brain becomes available
  • 2025 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001

[edit] See also

• Famous predictions