Swing vote
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Swing vote is a term used to describe a vote that may go to any of a number of candidates in an election. They are usually sought after in elections, since they can play a big role in who wins and loses.
A swing voter or floating voter is a voter who may not be affiliated with a particular political party (independents) or who will vote across party lines. Examples include "Reagan Democrats" who voted for Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, or the "Clinton Conservatives," Republicans who voted for Bill Clinton.
While the swing voter is ostensibly the target of most political activity during elections, in countries without compulsory voting the political parties know that the shift from one party to another is dependent only to a small extent on swing voters. Much more important than the swing voter is the ability of one party in comparison to another in getting out its core support. As people become disillusioned with their favoured party, they are more likely to abstain than switch.
However, in the 24 countries with compulsory voting, voter turnout is often already very close to 100%, so if the major parties are roughly balanced in popularity, swing voters can have a marked influence on the outcome.
The 2004 US presidential election was notable for the extent to which the Bush campaign was successful in getting out its vote. Republican strategists argued that it would be a mistake to play for the centre ground, i.e. swing voters, and that they needed to put all their effort into energising their natural support.
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[edit] Who is a swing voter?
In an election, there are "certain" or "lock" votes--voters that are solidly behind a particular candidate and won't consider changing their minds no matter what the opposition says. On the other hand, swing voters are undecided about how they will vote (sometimes, they're called undecideds or simply undecided voters). In the United States, they might be dissatisfied Republicans or Democrats who are open to vote for other parties, or people who have never had a strong party affiliation. Others might be people who have not voted before, such as voters just reaching voting age. Because the votes of swing voters are "up for grabs", candidates direct much campaign effort toward them, although they must also be concerned with voter turnout among their political base.
[edit] The impact of swing voters
Sometimes, swing voters play a huge part in elections. First-time voters and swing voters are usually credited for helping Jesse Ventura win the Minnesota gubernatorial election in 1998. Swing voters who support third-party candidates take potential votes away from the major candidates. Ventura was a third-party candidate, and what was seen as two weak major-party candidates created many more swing voters than usual. The result was a third-party candidate becoming governor.
[edit] Examples of swing voters
Major political parties consider non-affiliated voters and independents "swing voters." United States Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy is considered a "swing vote" on the court, due to his moderate political leanings. In general, many centrists, liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters" since they could vote one way or the other and cannot be counted on for certain to vote with the rest of the members of their party.
[edit] Reading
- Analysis of Swing Voting by Philip Dalton (ISBN 1-57273-655-0)
