Speculation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the card game, see Speculation (card game).

For the use of the term "speculative" in literature, see speculative fiction.

For philosophical usage, see Speculative philosophy and Speculative reason.

For the village, see Speculator, New York.

Speculation involves the buying, holding, selling, and short-selling of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, collectibles, real estate, derivatives or any valuable financial instrument to profit from fluctuations in its price as opposed to buying it for use or for income via methods such as dividends or interest. Speculation or agiotage represents one of three market roles in western financial markets, distinct from hedging, long term investing and arbitrage.

1 Speculation areas
2 Type of speculators
3 The economic benefits of speculation
4 Some side effects
5 Books
6 See also

[edit] Speculation areas

Convention - and especially satire - sometimes depicts speculators comically as speculating in pork bellies (in which a real market and real speculators exist) and often "losing their shirts" or making a fortune upon small market changes. Speculation exists in many such commodities but, if measured by value, the most important markets deal in financial futures contracts and other derivatives which involve leverage that can transform a small market movement into a huge gain or loss.

[edit] Type of speculators

Most non-professional traders lose money on speculation, while those who do make money tend to become professionals. Occasionally some dramatic event will occur such as the effort of the Hunt brothers to corner the silver market or the currency speculations of George Soros or the speculative trading of Nick Leeson, which caused the collapse of Barings Bank.

By some definitions, most long term investors, even those who buy and hold for decades, may be classified as speculators,^{[citation needed]} excepting only the rare few who are not primarily motivated by eventually selling at a good profit. Some dedicated speculators are distinguished by shorter holding times, the use of leverage, by being willing to take short positions as well as long positions (in markets where the distinction can be reasonably made). A degree of speculation exists in a wide range of financial decisions, from the purchase of a house to a bet on a horse, this is what modern market economists call as Ubiquitous Speculation.

[edit] The economic benefits of speculation

The service provided by speculators to a market is primarily that by risking their own capital in the hope of profit, they add liquidity to the market and make it easier for others to offset risk, including those who may be classified as hedgers and arbitrageurs.

For example, if a certain market - say in pork bellies - had no speculators, only producers (pig farmers) and consumers (butchers etc) would participate in that market. With fewer players in the market, there would be a larger spread between the current bid and ask price of pork bellies. Any new entrant in the market who wants to either buy or sell pork bellies will be forced to accept an illiquid market and market prices that have a large bid-ask spread, or might even find it difficult to find a co-party to buy or sell to. A speculator (e.g. a pork dealer) may exploit the difference in the spread and, in competition with other speculators, reduce the spread thus creating a more efficient market.

Another example of the value of speculators is the ability of a pig farmer to sell his pork on a futures exchange at a known price ahead of its production.

[edit] Some side effects

Auctions are a method of squeezing out speculators from a transaction, but they have their own perverse effects; see winner's curse. The winner's curse is however not very significant to markets with high liquidity for both buyers and sellers, as the auction for selling the product and the auction for buying the product occur simultaneously and the two prices are separated only by a relatively small spread. This mechanism prevents the winner's curse phenomenon from causing mispricing to any degree greater than the spread.

Speculative purchasing can also create inflationary pressure, causing particular prices to increase above their "true value" (real value - adjusted for inflation) simply because the speculative purchasing artificially increases the demand. Speculative selling can also have the opposite effect, causing prices to artificially decrease below their "true value" in a similar fashion. In various situations price rises due to speculative purchasing cause further speculative purchasing in the hope that the price will continue to rise. This creates a positive feedback loop in which prices rise dramatically above the underlying "value" or "worth" of the items. This is known as an economic bubble. Such a period of increasing speculative purchasing is typically followed by one of speculative selling in which the price falls significantly, in extreme cases this may lead to crashes. Overall, the participation of speculators in financial markets tends to be accompanied by significant increase in short term market volatility. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as heightened level of volatility implies that the market will be able to correct perceived mis-pricings more rapidly and in a more drastic manner.

[edit] Books

Sobel, Robert (1973, reprinted 2000). The Money Manias: The Eras of Great Speculation in America, 1770-1970. Beard Books (2000). (ISBN 1-58798-028-2).
Gunther, Max (1992). The Zurich Axioms. Souvenir Press. (ISBN 0-285-63095-4).
Niederhoffer, Victor (2005). Practical Speculation. Wiley. (ISBN 0-471-67774-4).