Shutdown of thermohaline circulation

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Shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is a possible effect of global warming.

There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Ireland, Scandinavia, and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift. The chances of this occurring are unclear; there is some evidence for the stability of the Gulf Stream and possible weakening of the North Atlantic drift. There is, however, no evidence for cooling in northern Europe or nearby seas; quite the reverse.

1 Thermohaline circulation and fresh water
2 Measurements in 2004 and 2005
3 Bryden measurements reported late 2005
4 See also
5 External links

[edit] Thermohaline circulation and fresh water

Heat is transported from the equator polewards mostly by the atmosphere but also by ocean currents, with warm water near the surface and cold water at deeper levels. The best known segment of this circulation is the Gulf Stream, a wind-driven gyre, which transports warm water from the Caribbean northwards. A northwards branch of the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Drift, is part of the thermohaline circulation (THC), transporting warmth further north to the North Atlantic, where its effect in warming the atmosphere contributes to warming Europe (though other factors are also important [1], [2]). The evaporation of ocean water in the North Atlantic increases the salinity (relative saltiness) of the water as well as cooling it, both actions increasing the density of water at the surface. The formation of sea ice further increases the salinity. This dense water then sinks and the circulation stream continues in a southerly direction. Global warming could lead to an increase in freshwater in the northern oceans, by melting glaciers in Greenland and by increasing precipitation, especially through Siberian rivers [3]. It is by no means clear that sufficient freshwater could be provided to interrupt thermohaline circulation — climate models indicate not, but research continues.

The red end of the spectrum indicates slowing in this presentation of the trend of velocities derived from NASA Pathfinder altimeter data from May 1992 to June 2002. Source: NASA.

Some even fear that global warming may be able to trigger the type of abrupt massive temperature shifts which occurred during the last glacial: a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events — rapid climate fluctuations — may be attributed to freshwater forcing at high latitude interrupting the THC. The Younger Dryas event may have been of this sort too. (See the discussion of chaos theory for related ideas.) However, these events are believed to have been triggered by massive freshwater discharges from the Laurentide ice sheet, rather than from the melting of polar sea-ice and precipitation changes associated with the increased open water in global warming. Also, in coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models the THC tends to weaken somewhat rather than stop, and the warming effects outweigh the cooling, even locally: the IPCC Third Annual Report notes that even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe [4]. Model runs in which the THC is forced to shut down do show cooling — locally up to 8 degrees Celsius [5] — although the largest anomalies occur over the North Atlantic, not over land.

[edit] Measurements in 2004 and 2005

In April 2004, the hypothesis that the Gulf Stream is switching off received a boost when a retrospective analysis of U.S. satellite data seemed to show a slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre, the northern swirl of the Gulf Stream. [6]

In May 2005, Peter Wadhams reported to The Times about the results of investigations in a submarine under the Arctic ice sheet measuring the giant chimneys of cold dense water, in which the cold dense water normally sinks down to the sea bed and is replaced by warm water, forming one of the engines of the North Atlantic Drift. He and his team found the chimneys to have virtually disappeared. Normally there are seven to twelve giant columns, but Wadhams found only two giant columns, both extremely weak. [7] [8]

[edit] Bryden measurements reported late 2005

The NewScientist.com news service [9] reported on 30 November 2005 that the National Oceanography Centre in the UK found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream from the last such measurement in 1992. The authors note that currently the observed changes are "uncomfortably close" to the uncertainties in the measurements. However, the North Atlantic is currently warmer than in the earlier measurements [10]. This suggests that either the circulation is not weakening, or that, even if it is weakening, the weakening is not having the hypothesised cooling effect, or that other factors are able to overwhelm any cooling. See Decrease in Atlantic circulation? by Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann on the RealClimate website ([11]).

The New Scientist article was based on an article by Harry L. Bryden et al. published in Nature (438, 655-657) on 1 December 2005. ([12]: subscription required). In News and Views in the same issue of Nature (438, 565-566, [13]), Detlef Quadfasel reinforces the point that the uncertainty of the estimates of Bryden et al. is high, but says other factors and observations do support their results. Quadfasel continues by pointing out the significance of the possible implications, with palaeoclimate records showing drops of air temperature up to 10°C within decades, linked to abrupt switches of ocean circulation when a certain threshold is reached. He concludes that further observations and modelling are crucial for providing early warning of a possible devastating breakdown of the circulation.

On 6 December 2005 Michael Schlesinger, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, leading a research team, said “The shutdown of the thermohaline circulation has been characterized as a high-consequence, low-probability event. Our analysis, including the uncertainties in the problem, indicates it is a high-consequence, high-probability event.”[14]. This remains a minority opinion based on unpublished research.

On 19 January 2006, a News Feature Climate change: A sea change by Quirin Schiermeier appeared in Nature, detailing reactions to the Bryden results (439, 256-260, [15] requiring subscription; see also RealClimate [16]). Points made by Schiermeier include the following:

The results are a surprise to scientists in the field.
Modelling suggests that increase of fresh water flows large enough to shut down the thermohaline circulation would be an order of magnitude greater than currently estimated to be occurring, and such increases are unlikely to become critical within the next hundred years; this is hard to reconcile with the Bryden measurements.
The Bryden results could be caused by natural variation, or "noise", that is, coincidence.
If the results are correct, perhaps thermohaline circulation reductions will not have the drastic effects that have been predicted on European cooling.
While previous shutdowns (e.g. the Younger Dryas) have caused cooling, the current overall climate is different; in particular sea-ice formation is less because of overall global warming.
However, a thermohaline circulation shutdown could have other major consequences apart from cooling of Europe, such as: increase in major floods and storms; collapse of plankton stocks; or warming or rainfall changes in the tropics or Alaska and Antarctica and changes in the SO.