Seldon Crisis
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A Seldon Crisis is a fictional socio-historical phenomenon in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series of science fiction novels. Utilizing the mathematics of Psychohistory, Hari Seldon foresaw that the collapse of the Galactic Empire would herald a period of galactic barbarism that would last for 30,000 years, stretching until a second Galactic Empire could rise from the ashes. To shorten this period of anarchy, Hari Seldon formed the Seldon Plan, which would shorten the period of barbarism to a single thousand years. To insure that the Plan was followed to fruition, a Seldon Crisis would occur when the fictional Foundation nation would encounter a social and political situation that, to be successfully surmounted, would eventually leave only one possible, inevitable, course of action. These 'Seldon Crises' were planned and pre-determined by Hari Seldon (after whom they were named) as devices for controlling the flow of events in connection to the Foundation in order to execute the Seldon Plan. It is interesting to note that there are eight Seldon Crises, which corresponds also to the number of stages in Erik Erikson's stages of psychosocial development theory of personality. Both Erikson and Seldon associate the stages in their respective models with "crises," and it is well-documented (and self-evident) that Issac Asimov's work is influenced heavily by psychology.
[edit] Known Seldon Crises
There are at least eight Seldon Crises, of which the First Foundation was only informed of the first five:
- #1 Balance of Power:[1] Encountered fifty years after the foundation of the Encyclopedia Foundation Number One, as the Foundation was originally known, the surrounding areas of the Galactic Empire had rebelled and declared themselves independent kingdoms. The new nations were known as the Four Kingdoms, the largest of which was the Kingdom of Anacreon. The new barbarian kingdoms would inevitably try to absorb the militarily weak and resource-poor First Foundation, with Anacreon actually establishing a military base in an unoccupied portion of Terminus as a prelude to outright annexation. The solution to the Crisis was, as Hari Seldon said in his first recorded message to the Foundation, obvious; as the only source of atomic power in the Preiphery (As the edge of the galaxy was known), to allow any one Kingdom to gain control of the Foundation would be tantamount to suicide on the part of the other Kingdoms, as such a move would quickly be followed by the annexation of the rest of the Kingdoms. Thusly, the Kingdoms united against one another, jointly insuring that no nation assume control of the Foundation and forcing Anacreaon to recall its soldiers. In this and the next crisis, the foundation was guided by Salvor Hardin.
- #2 Religion:[1] Occurring approximately thirty years after the first Crisis, the Kingdom of Anacreon, still the largest of the Four Kingdoms, once again planned to conquer the Foundation in order to gain its technological resources. Having grown in power since the original Crisis, even the other three kingdoms united were not enough of a deterrent to forstall attack. Aware that this was always a distinct possibility, the Foundation had since spread a cult of science through the barbarian kingdoms. Providing technological aid to the Four Kingdoms in a further attempt to forstall hostility, the Foundation had withheld all scientific explanation on the functioning of their technology, the equipment was operated by technicians who only had an empirical knowledge of the science surrounding the feats that were accomplished. Furthermore, the technicians and populace were indoctrinated into a religion that placed all science within the realm of magic and Terminus in the role of a religious capital. This religion was ingrained deeply enough into the mentality of the populace that the common people of the kingdoms would oppose any attack on Terminus by their leaders because it would be regarded as "sin", and the soldiers of Anacreon rebelled when they learned what their leaders were planning.
- #3 Trade alone:[1] With the use of religious awe the Foundation managed to maintain control of the Four Kingdoms for the years after the second Crisis and, through the use of missionaries who spread the relgion to other nations, managed to assume control of Askone, a distant stellar system. However, the barbarian kingdoms outside of the original four heard news of the subversion of the populace by the presentation of atomic science as religion and denied all religious missionaries entry. Thus, though the religion was successful in preventing further attacks from the Four Kingdoms, it provided no means of offense against hostile nations. Hober Mallow, one of the Foundations Traders (Economic pioneers who attempted to open doorways for the priesthood by getting foreign governments to accept atomic technology), saw that the religion had reached the end of its usefulness and began to operate on the principle of trade alone, selling atomic technology without spreading the religion along with them. The Republic of Korell, ruled by Commdor Asper Argo "The Well Beloved", refused entry to the Priesthood, but engaged Mallow in standard trade practices. When Korell, supplied with ships of war from the dying Galactic Empire, attempted to wage war upon the Foundation, they had already traded with the Foundation to the point that most of their infrastructure was based on Foundation-derived nuclear technology that they could not duplicate. Following an embargo, they quickly surrendered.
- #4 Foundation and Empire:[2] The time came when the remnants of the Galactic Empire, mighty even in decay, attacked the Foundation directly in an all-out war. This came in the form of General Bel Riose, a loyal servent of the Galactic Empire, when Riose learned of the Foundations eventual plan for its own Empire. Fearing the danger they presented to the state, and wishing to satisfy his own desire to embark on a war of conquest, Riose attempted to conquer the Foundation in the name of the Empire. His attempt very nearly succeeded, the combat destroyed half a thousand Foundation ships and killed half a million Foundation men, with Riose penetrating to the very heart of the original Four Kingdoms. Despite superior Foundation technology, Riose was able to routinely defeat the Foundation through brilliant strategic moves and superior resources. Ultimately, however, Riose was recalled by the Emperor Cleon II and executed on charges of treason and subversion, charges that ultimately proved to be false, due to the political makeup of the Empire during its decline. Because of the almost routine revolutions, rebellions, and assassinations within the Empire, a "strong" Emperor could only remain so if he had no subordinates capable of challenging him, and Riose's actions presented him as a credible threat to the Emperor.
- #5 Independent Traders vs. Central Aristocracy:[2] As the Foundation expanded with no further opposition, from the Empire or anyone else, its central authority began to suffer the same faults as the decaying government of the original Galactic Empire. The Mayoralty, previously a democratically elected position, became an inherited title after Indbur, a man described as both brutal and capable, seized the office in a military coup. By the time of Indbur III, the grandson of the original Indbur and a man described as a bookkeeper in the wrong profession, the government had become an aristocracy reminiscent of the barbarian kingdoms the Foundation so often came in conflict with. In an effort to "spread the wealth more", over two dozen outer planets of the Foundation's trade hegemony/empire planned to lead a revolt against the central aristocracy. Though ultimately a military failure, the rebellion of the Independent Traders would have insured the spread of social reforms throughout the Foundation and the return to the democratically elected government of the past.
However, the Fifth Crisis did not occur as predicted. The Independent Traders were going to revolt as predicted, but stopped when the galactic conqueror known only as the Mule began his invasion of all Foundation territories. This resulted in the rapid defeat of the Foundation fleets, the fall of Terminus to The Mule, the quick fall of the trader-world Haven, and eventually all Independent Traders. The Mule operated completely outside the Seldon Plan because Psychohistory operated only with probabilities and known human statistics, but the Mule was a mutant, and thus his birth was not predicted by Seldon, nor were his startling mental abilities. The Mule possessed the ability to understand and control the emotions of humans, capable of instilling feelings of love in his enemies and "Converting" them into loyal followers. One of the central tenets of Psychohistory was the belief in standard human reaction to outside stimuli, which the Mule negated, and the practice of dealing with masses of people, not individuals; an individual capable of altering the Seldon Plan could not be calculated. With the arrival of the Mule, it was theorised that the Seldon Plan had been ruined and, if a Second Empire were to still arise, it would not be as predicted.
Fortunately for the Plan, the Second Foundation, which had been formed to correct any damage the Plan sustained, managed to defeat the Mule and was able to reconstruct the Seldon Plan.
Later on, they would encounter the Eighth Crisis (six and seven are not documented):
- #8 Moving the capital:[3] After the Foundation Federation had expanded to include one third of the galaxy, there were arguments that the capital of it should be moved closer to its center than the current capital at Terminus, at the very edge of the galaxy. However, in the end the capital on Terminus was retained.
