Safe seat

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A safe seat is a seat in a legislative body (e.g., Congress, Parliament, City Council) which is regarded as fully secured by a certain political party with very little chance of an election upset because of the nature of the electorate in the constituency concerned.

In countries with parliamentary government, parties often try to ensure that their most talented politicians are selected to contest these seats. This is done to ensure that these politicians can stay in parliament, regardless of the specific election result, and that they can concentrate on ministerial roles without needing to spend too much effort on managing electorate-specific issues. Unsurprisingly, candidate selection for these seats is usually keenly contested.

The fact that voters in safe seats have little chance to affect election outcomes - and thus, those voters' concerns can theoretically be ignored by political parties with no effect on election outcome - is often regarded as undemocratic, and is a major argument of supporters of various multi-member proportional representation election methods.

1 Canada
2 United Kingdom
3 United States
4 Australia
5 See also

[edit] Canada

Examples include:

Crowfoot, a Conservative stronghold, located in southern Alberta. In the 2006 federal election, the Conservative candidate, Kevin Sorenson, won with over 80% of the vote, the highest percentage in Canada.
Mount Royal, a Liberal stronghold in Montreal, Quebec, held by a succession of Liberal MPs since 1940. Irwin Cotler won a record 76% of the vote in the 2004 federal election.
Ottawa-Vanier, a Liberal stronghold in the eastern part of Ottawa. It has elected a Liberal Member of Parliament each federal election since its creation in 1935, often in landslide victories.
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville, another Liberal stronghold in Montreal. It has been held by the Liberals since its creation. In the 2004 federal election, incumbent Stéphane Dion won 21,000 votes more then his closest rival.
Wild Rose, a Conservative stronghold, also in southern Alberta. The incumbent (Myron Thompson) won 72% compared to 10% for his closest rival in the 2006 federal election.
York Centre, a Liberal stronghold in Toronto, Ontario, sometimes called the "safest Liberal seat in Canada" (or one of the safest such seats) in media reports.

[edit] United Kingdom

Examples of safe seats are in the Labour Party heartlands of urban northeast England and those of the Conservative Party in the shires. An example of a safe Labour seat is Houghton & Washington East, where in the 2005 general election Labour received 64.3% of the vote, giving them a 46.3% majority over the second-placed Liberal Democrats (at 18.0%). An example of a safe Conservative seat is Richmond (North Yorkshire). In the 2005 general election, the Conservatives gathered 59.1% of the vote, giving a 39.4% majority over Labour (at 19.7%). Even in the safest of seats upsets can, and sometimes do, occur. Whilst it is rare for the opposition to take such seats, outside candidates may be able to. Recent examples include the election of Peter Law and George Galloway to very safe Labour seats in 2005, and Martin Bell to the safe Conservative seat of Tatton in 1997. These often occur as protest votes, and particularly in byelections.

[edit] United States

Many American commentators have decried the tendency of most House seats to become safe seats, decreasing the number of contested seats in every cycle. Specific U.S. States, congressional districts, and senate seats since the 1990s are sometimes referred to as "solid blue" or "solid red" after the use of these colors in television maps on election night.

An example of a safe seat for the Democrats is New York's 11th congressional district in eastern Brooklyn, which has been Democratic since at least 1945 and where the incumbent, Major R. Owens has won reelection with over 85% of the vote in every election since 1998.

A Republican safe seat example would be the sole Alaskan House seat, which has been under Republican control continuously since 1972, and before that was held by Democrats for a grand total of 10 out of Alaska's 47 years as a state.

[edit] Australia

In Australia's federal system, most rural seats are very safe seats for either the National Party or Liberal Party. Conversely, inner-city and poorer suburban seats are typically safe Labor, and a few of the most affluent inner-middle urban seats are held by the Liberal Party. Marginals are generally concentrated in the middle-class outer-suburban areas of Australia's larger state capitals, which decide most Australian federal elections.