Richard C. Duncan

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Richard Duncan devised the controversial Olduvai theory, which holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, would begin to decline around 2007 as the extraction rates of fossil fuels fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse, starting with massive electrical blackouts worldwide. He theorizes that humans would eventually revert to a stone-age style of living after the majority of the world's population dies off over the coming century.

He bases his theory on the fact that a steep rise in global population and petroleum use closely parallel each other in a demonstrable way.

This theory is highly controversial because it assumes that the planet can only sustain as many people after oil is depleted as it did before oil was discovered, not taking into account the vast increase of human knowledge of ecological processes that has accompanied civilization's advance. His focus on electrical transmission also raises skepticism among many, as Peak Oil is typically viewed as a liquid fuels crisis.

Duncan is often called a pseudoscientist as he does not publish in reputable peer-reviewed journals, and because his research has been often quoted by some racially biased organizations and Illuminati conspiracy theorists. His theory has spread through the more apocalyptic groups of "Peak Oilers" but has yet to gain much attention or interest by mainstream scientists.

Despite these failings, Duncan's research data, compiled in partnership with geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist, [1] have become widely used resources for those studying past and current trends in oil production and depletion. The main points of contention are regarding his conclusions and prognostications.