Republic of China presidential election, 2008
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 |
This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds. |
| Republic of China |
 This article is part of the series: |
| Fundamentals: History - Civil War - 3 Principles Executives: Branches: Parties: Status: Relations: Other issues: |
|
Other countries • Politics Portal |
The Election for the 12th-term President and Vice-President of the Republic of China (Chinese: 第十二任中華民國總統副總統選舉) will be held in March 2008 (but as is customary in Taiwanese elections, the date will probably not be determined until late 2007). The election will be by direct popular vote; a simple plurality is required to win. According to the Constitution of the Republic of China, all citizens of the Republic of China of at least 20 years of age and with household registration in the "Free Area of the Republic of China" (Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, etc.) will be eligible to vote. There is, however, ongoing discussion on lowering the voting age to 18 years and permitting absentee ballots for Republic of China citizens of the Free Area who reside outside the Free Area (i.e. in mainland China or overseas).[1] Under the current rules, all voters must travel to their registered precincts to vote.
This is the fourth direct election for the president of the Republic of China.
[edit] Candidates
As this is incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's second term, he is barred from running due to term limits. While the election is still more than a year away, several persons have been speculated as potential candidates:
- Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
- Frank Hsieh, former premier of the Republic of China
- Su Tseng-chang, current premier of the Republic of China
- Annette Lu, current vice president of the Republic of China
- Yu Shyi-kun, current chairman of the DPP
- Kuomintang (KMT), also known as Nationalist Party
- Ma Ying-jeou, current mayor of Taipei and chairman of the KMT
- Wang Jin-pyng, current president of the Legislative Yuan and former vice-chairman of the KMT
- Lien Chan, presidential candidate of 2000, 2004, recent call to draft him after Ma's scandal
People First Party's James Soong, originally considered a presidential hopeful, announced his retirement from politics after the Republic of China municipal elections, 2006.
The ability of the Pan-Blue Coalition to name a unified ticket is even less certain. In the 2000 presidential election, the KMT nominated Lien Chan and James Soong (who was expelled from the KMT and would form the PFP after the election), ran as an independent on a separate ticket. Together they garnered 59.9% of the vote, but lost to the DPP's Chen Shui-bian who won 39.3% of the vote. This split in the electorate was widely seen to have led to Chen's victory, and in the 2004 presidential election, Lien and Soong ran on a combined ticket (with Lien for president and Soong for vice president). Though widely expected to win the election on the basis of their combined vote totals in 2000, they still lost by 0.22% of the vote.
Following the Ma Ying-jeou's landslide victory over Wang Jin-pyng in the 2005 KMT chairmanship election and the KMT's landslide victory over the DPP in the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, Ma is heavily favored for the Pan-Blue nomination. With the PFP's dismal showing in the 2004 legislative election and the 2005 3-in-1 local elections, there is increasing pressure for the PFP to merge with the KMT. The PFP announced on December 12 that it would merge into the KMT in two phases, the first being completed by the end of January 2006. However, the talk regarding the merger seems to stop now.
The most likely scenario under which Pan-Blue is unable to field a common candidate is if Soong demands to run as president over Ma. On the eve of the 2005 chairmanship election, Soong had made a televised endorsement of Ma's opponent Wang Jin-pyng. Another scenario is if the PFP, if it has not yet merged with the KMT, demands a place on the combined ticket and the KMT refuses and decides that both presidential and vice presidential nominees should be KMT members. The third party in the Pan-Blue Coalition, the New Party, has largely integrated itself into the KMT (it fielded all but one if its members under the KMT banner in the 2004 legislative elections), and is not expected to either name its own ticket or demand to be placed on the ticket (unlike the PFP's Soong, no New Party politician has the political stature to be touted in the media as a potential presidential candidate).
KMT Chairman and Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou has, according to some observers, already begun his campaign, taking a trip in February of 2006 to Europe, nominally to obtain business deals for Taipei, but covered widely by the media for his foreign policy remarks. Significantly, Ma Ying-jeou became the first head of a pan-Blue coalition party to state that declaring de jure Taiwanese independence was a legitimate choice of the Taiwanese people, though he qualified it saying that this was not a position of the KMT. He also stated that Taiwan should form a common market with China and establish direct transportation links. Ma has also expressed an interest to relocate to southern Taiwan—the traditional pan-Green stronghold—after his term as Taipei mayor ends in 2006.
[edit] Issues
Given that the election is still years away, the specific issues that will be discussed in the campaign have not yet materialized. Much of the information on potential issues is purely speculative and political stances and coalitions are subject to change. Currently, with the recent success in the three-in-one local elections of 2005 and the increasing popularity of the KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou, and the declining popularity of old guard PFP chairman James Soong, the KMT and PFP are considering a merger or a closer coalition. The PFP is a much smaller breakaway party from the KMT that previously relied solely on the popularity of their leader, James Soong.
As is common with Taiwanese elections, a major issue of the campaign will likely be over the future of the political status of Taiwan and maintaining good cross-straits relations. The DPP favors eventual Taiwan independence; the KMT on the other hand, is willing to accept the PRC's one-China principle and believes that Taiwan will eventually unify with China. The KMT's main objective is to establish economic ties with China while remaining an independent state. Unlike the DPP, it is much more flexible in terms of diplomatic rhetoric. It is widely recognized that no candidate could win without supporting the status quo of de facto independence (as they did in 2004) in order to attract centrist voters. The strategy of both sides, as was the case in 2004, will be to persuade voters that it can best maintain the status quo and protect Taiwan from an invasion by the People's Republic of China.
While the smaller, more radical TSU favors immediate moves to establish a Taiwanese state, the much more mainstream DPP under Chen Shui-bian has so far taken a more moderate position regarding independence. At the same time the Chen administration has moved to promote a separate Taiwanese identity and give official recognition to Taiwan's de facto independence from the mainland such as by equating Taiwan with the Republic of China. The front-runners for the DPP nomination are all considered moderates like Chen Shui-bian.
The KMT party line is against one country, two systems, but is supportive of dialogue with the Communist Party of China under the "1992 Consensus." The DPP, in contrast, opposes recognizing One China (a prerequisite set by the PRC for negotiations), and no talks have occurred under the Chen administration. The KMT also supports immediately opening up the three links with mainland China, which the DPP has been reluctant to implement, and this reluctant willingness is further impeded by the PRC's refusal to negotiate unless the government accepts the one-China principle and the so-called 1992 consensus.
Another issue to be discussed in the years before the election is constitutional reform. President Chen Shui-bian had pledged in his second inaugural address to draft a new constitution by 2006 to take effect upon the inauguration of the 12th-term president in 2008. This is opposed by the Pan-Blue Coalition, which seeks only changes through amendments to the existing document. A constitutional reform package was passed in 2005 with cross-party support, while the "Constitutional Reform Committee" proposed by President Chen to draft the new Constitution has never been formed. It appears, that with Pan-Blue controlling the Legislative Yuan until at least February 2008 (following the 2007 legislative election) and few actions being taken by the president for drafting a new Constitution, there will be no new Constitution for 2008.
