Talk:Raymond Kurzweil
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[edit] Old talk
Can anyone verify the information in this article? It sounds too much like a blurb. -- mailto:c1tk@c1tk.cjb.net
- Also, he's on CNBC now with his new book, diong promo, and it looks like he's gone half-nutty! --24.103.207.38 16:45, 13 Oct 2004 (UTC)
Ray will also be on the radio program "Here & Now" on Monday, August 1, 2005, at noon. That's on WBUR at 90.9 FM in Boston, but assuming you won't be in the area, you can listen to it on their web site. http://www.here-now.org
I just got his book and it looks like he's gone 95% nutty....I think some of the stuff he recommends is downright dangerous (certain supplement megadosing) and or of dubious value (chelation)69.228.240.57 04:53, 2 August 2005 (UTC)
[edit] Book difference
If I have 'The Singularity Is Near' and 'Fantastic Voyage', is it worth getting his older books? From our current descriptions and reviews I can google it does look to me like TSIN is the new version of the 'Ages...' books, and FV is the new '100% Solution...'. Am I wrong? --Piotr Konieczny aka Prokonsul Piotrus Talk 14:15, 7 October 2005 (UTC)
- Age of Spiritual Machines might still be worthwhile; 100% solution and Age of Intelligent Machines are more or less superceded. I recommend your local library.--SamLL 22:51, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
[edit] Synthesisers
I am more familiar with the Kurzweil of musical instrument fame, and I note that the article currently does a good job of summarising this aspect of his career; Kurzweil's breakthrough products were high-end sample-playback devices and not, strictly speaking, synthesisers. The impression I get is that the man is along the lines of all those retired US Air Force radar operators who believe in chemtrails i.e. initial success in several complex technical fields has led him to believe that he is an expert in another field entirely, the field of people. -Ashley Pomeroy 11:06, 25 October 2005 (UTC)
[edit] Kurzweil Kriticisms?
(sorry for the cute title) Clearly Kurzweil has gone overboard with his timeline for how rapidly things will progress in the early 21st century. I recall seeing him in an interview with Leo Laporte on The ScreenSavers a couple years ago and he was insistent that by 2009 there will be some kind of immersive VR computing environment, presumably with lasers that paint images onto the retina. Possibly expirementally and still crude, but I seriously doubt it'd be mainstream that soon. Nice, high res. OLED's are about as much as I'd expect by then. Maybe he's retracted his predictions' timeline since then, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's not the case. At the rate that he's going in November of 2009 he'll be asked why his predictions have yet to come true and he'll reply that there's still another month left in the year.
Anyway, my point is that while his long term predictions may be accurate, his timeline is screwed up and this article should probably reflect that criticism, albeit in a more gentle manner than I just did.
- Well, cite your sources and be bold.--Piotr Konieczny aka Prokonsul Piotrus Talk 14:12, 24 December 2005 (UTC)
Your personal opinion on his ideas should NOT be reflected in this article. Wikipedia is a none-biased site, this article should not be biased against him. If you can find any quotable critisism of his ideas then by all means include this in the article but otherwise, no. On a further note, where is the proof that this mans colleagues are frightened by his 'dystopian' view of the future? --
[edit] Kurzweil at ASTD
I recently attended the American Society for Training and Development conference. Kurzweil was a speaker. I'd never heard of him before. My first impression was that he is a genius -- with rapid-fire ideas beyond anything I could imagine. Sort of a cross between Stephen Hawking and Woody Allen. He predicted that if we live 20 more years, we'll be in an era where human lifespan is exponentially and artificially increased. Hmmm...I was hoping to retire in 20 years! lol.
Removed the editorial sentence:
- Kurzweil is a highly perceptive individual with a genius for intuiting the bigger picture, so whether you agree with his projections or believe he has gone over the edge, one should listen to what he has to say.
Unfortunately lots of genius's have been wrong, because you possess great ability, does not mean all your ideas and predictions will be accurate. As with all things coming from human minds, some will hit, others will miss. He's ignoring also the exponential complexity of technology that will balance out the exponential growth. As we solve problems, we take on even BIGGER problems even more complicated and time consuming.
Look at microchip design for instance the Pentium 4 was suppose to reach 10 Ghz, it barely reached over 3 ghz. There are people just as smart as Ray at Intel and other technological megacorporations who do not share his crank visions of the future because they understand the manufacturing processes and the enormous complexities.
For instance the laws of diminishing returns - I read and article about doubling current processor speed by some engineers and they were talking that a 'simple' 2 times increase in performance creates *four fold* increase in complexity.
