Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006

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The Pennsylvania Senate election of 2006 was held on November 7, 2006. State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. was elected with 59 percent of the vote to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013. Casey, a Democrat, defeated the Republican incumbent, Senator Rick Santorum. Santorum garnered 41 percent of the vote. The race was a target for Democratic leaders who sought to gain seats--and a Democratic majority--in the United States Senate. [1] Casey's margin of victory is the largest ever for a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. [2]

Contents 1 Election results 2 The primary 3 Candidates 3.1 Major party candidates 3.1.1 Republican Party 3.1.2 Democratic Party 3.2 Withdrawn/defeated candidates 3.2.1 Republican Party 3.2.2 Democratic Party 3.2.3 Green Party 3.2.4 Independents 4 Factors in the election 4.1 Santorum's controversial views 4.2 Santorum's residency 4.3 Casey's momentum 4.4 Negative advertisements 5 Opinion polling 5.1 Most recent polls 5.2 Rasmussen Reports 5.3 Quinnipiac University 5.4 Strategic Vision (R) 5.5 Keystone 5.6 Zogby 5.7 Other Polls 6 References 7 External links

[edit] Election results

2006 United States Senate election, Pennsylvania
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr.	2,345,082	58.7	+13.2
	Republican	Rick Santorum (incumbent)	1,652,486	41.3	-11.1
Majority			692,596	17.4
Turnout			3,941,794
	Democratic gain from Republican		Swing	12.2%

At 10:00 PM Eastern Standard Time, Santorum called Casey to concede defeat. This was the first concession of the 2006 elections, and also the first gain for the Democrats.

[edit] The primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 16, 2006. The candidates were Pennsylvania State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., University of the Arts history professor Chuck Pennacchio, and Philadelphia attorney Alan Sandals. Casey won a landslide victory in the primary with 85% of the votes.

Santorum was unopposed in the Republican primary. John Featherman, a self-described social liberal and fiscal conservative who also ran against Santorum in the 2000 Senate election as a Libertarian, had been expected to challenge Santorum again this year. However, Featherman withdrew from the Republican race after a GOP petition challenge because he did not have the necessary number of signatures to get on the ballot. [3]

On May 31, 2006, the polling firm Rasmussen Reports declared that Santorum was the "most vulnerable incumbent" among the Senators running for re-election. [4]

[edit] Candidates

[edit] Major party candidates

[edit] Republican Party

• Rick Santorum - former U.S. congressman for PA-18 1991-1995, former U.S. Senator 1995-2007

[edit] Democratic Party

• Bob Casey, Jr. - son of former Governor Bob Casey, former state auditor general 1997-2005, former state treasurer 2005-2007, U.S. Senator since 2007

[edit] Withdrawn/defeated candidates

[edit] Republican Party

• John Featherman

[edit] Democratic Party

• Chuck Pennacchio
• Alan Sandals
• Joe Hoeffel - former U.S. congressman for PA-13 1999-2005, 2004 Democratic Senate nominee against Arlen Specter, endorsed Casey in April 2005
• Barbara Hafer - 1990 GOP gubernatorial nominee against Bob Casey, Sr., former state auditor general 1989-1997, former state treasurer 1997-2005, switched parties in 2003, endorsed Casey in June 2005

[edit] Green Party

• Carl Romanelli - rail industry consultant, was removed from ballot by a Commonwealth Court judge on September 25 for failing to collect enough valid signatures required of third-party candidates, lost appeal to state Supreme Court for challenge to required number of signatures on October 3 [5]

[edit] Independents

• Kate Michelman - former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, considered an independent bid because of Casey's opposition to abortion rights [6], decided against a run and tacitly endorsed Casey in March 2006 [7]

[edit] Factors in the election

[edit] Santorum's controversial views

Santorum is an outspoken conservative in a state with a history of electing moderates, leading many political commentators to speculate that his low approval ratings may be due to some of his more controversial statements and opinions.

Among these controversies include his views on the privatization of Social Security (highly unpopular with older Pennsylvanians and the AARP) and the teaching of intelligent design in public schools. His involvement in the Terri Schiavo case was considered by many in his state to be out of place.

SurveyUSA polling taken right before the election showed that Santorum was the least popular of all 100 Senators, with a 38% approval rating and a net approval rating of -19%. [8]

For more, see Rick Santorum#Political controversies.

[edit] Santorum's residency

Santorum found himself mired in controversy over his residency, with his detractors highlighting the fact that while he maintained a residence in suburban Pittsburgh, his family lived in the Virginia suburbs when the Senate was in session. Critics argue that this was not unlike the living arrangements Santorum denounced in his 1990 House race versus Representative Doug Walgren, the Democrat he defeated. Santorum accused Walgren of being out of touch with his Pittsburgh-area district, symbolized by his home in the Virginia suburbs.

On NBC's Meet the Press on September 3, 2006, Santorum admitted that he only spent "maybe a month a year, something like that" at his Pennsylvania residence. [9]

[edit] Casey's momentum

In late September and through October, Casey's campaign seemed to regain the momentum it had had throughout most of the campaign, as most polls showed Casey opening up his lead after a summer slump. [10] In Quinnipiac University's poll, released on September 26, Casey was favored by 54% of the voters to Santorum's 40%. [11] An October 16 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Casey with a similar double-digit lead. In the Rasmussen poll, only 46% of voters surveyed had a favorable view of Santorum, while 57% of voters viewed Casey favorably. [12]

[edit] Negative advertisements

At least one of Santorum's television ads called into question his campaign's use of the facts regarding Casey and persons who had donated money to the Casey campaign. According to the ad, some of the persons who had given Casey money were or had been under investigation for various crimes. An editorial in Casey's hometown newspaper, The Scranton Times, pointed out that all but one of the contributions "[was] made to Casey campaigns when he was running for other offices, at which time none of the contributors were known to be under investigation for anything. [13] In fact, two of the persons cited in the Santorum campaign ad had actually given contributions to Santorum's 2006 Senate campaign. Another referenced in the ad died in 2004. [14]

[edit] Opinion polling

[edit] Most recent polls

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Strategic Vision (R)	November 6, 2006	52%	40%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC	November 5, 2006	52%	39%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	November 3, 2006	51%	43%
Reuters/Zogby International	November 2, 2006	48%	40%
Keystone	November 1, 2006	53%	38%
Quinnipiac	November 1, 2006	52%	42%
Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer	October 29, 2006	54%	38%
Rasmussen	October 28, 2006	55%	42%
West Chester University	October 27, 2006	50%	39%

[edit] Rasmussen Reports

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Rasmussen	October 28, 2006	55%	42%
Rasmussen	October 16, 2006	55%	43%
Rasmussen	October 5, 2006	50%	37%
Rasmussen	September 20, 2006	49%	39%
Rasmussen	August 22, 2006	48%	40%
Rasmussen	July 26, 2006	50%	39%
Rasmussen	June 19, 2006	52%	37%
Rasmussen	May 22, 2006	56%	33%
Rasmussen	April 20, 2006	51%	38%
Rasmussen	March 29, 2006	50%	41%
Rasmussen	March 14, 2006	48%	38%
Rasmussen	February 16, 2006	52%	36%
Rasmussen	January 15, 2006	53%	38%
Rasmussen	November 10, 2005	54%	34%
Rasmussen	July 22, 2005	52%	41%

[edit] Quinnipiac University

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Quinnipiac	November 1, 2006	52%	42%
Quinnipiac	September 26, 2006	54%	40%
Quinnipiac	August 15, 2006	47%	40%
Quinnipiac	June 21, 2006	52%	34%
Quinnipiac	May 11, 2006	49%	36%
Quinnipiac	April 6, 2006	48%	37%
Quinnipiac	February 13, 2006	51%	36%
Quinnipiac	December 13, 2005	50%	38%
Quinnipiac	October 3, 2005	52%	34%
Quinnipiac	July 13, 2005	50%	39%
Quinnipiac	April 23, 2005	49%	35%
Quinnipiac	February 16, 2005	46%	41%

[edit] Strategic Vision (R)

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Strategic Vision (R)	November 6, 2006	52%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	November 1, 2006	49%	39%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 24, 2006	49%	42%
Strategic Vision (R)	September 28, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	August 17, 2006	47%	41%
Strategic Vision (R)	July 20, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	June 15, 2006	49%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	May 10, 2006	49%	41%
Strategic Vision (R)	April 13, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	March 15, 2006	52%	38%
Strategic Vision (R)	January 25, 2006	50%	40%
Strategic Vision (R)	December 18, 2005	50%	39%
Strategic Vision (R)	November 16, 2005	51%	36%
Strategic Vision (R)	October 16, 2005	52%	36%
Strategic Vision (R)	September 12, 2005	52%	38%
Strategic Vision (R)	July 31, 2005	51%	40%

[edit] Keystone

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Keystone	November 1, 2006	53%	38%
Keystone	September 18, 2006	45%	38%
Keystone	August 24, 2006	44%	39%
Keystone	May 4, 2006	47%	41%
Keystone	February 9, 2006	50%	39%
Keystone	November 10, 2005	51%	35%
Keystone	September 13, 2005	50%	37%
Keystone	June 6, 2005	44%	37%
Keystone	March 22, 2005	44%	43%

[edit] Zogby

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Zogby International/Reuters	November 2, 2006	48%	40%
Zogby International/Reuters	October 5, 2006	48%	36%
Zogby Interactive	September 28, 2006	45.8%	39.8%
Zogby Interactive	September 11, 2006	47.0%	42.9%
Zogby Interactive	August 28, 2006	50.5%	41.7%
Zogby Interactive	July 24, 2006	49.2%	40.2%
Zogby Interactive	June 21, 2006	47.9%	41.3%
Zogby Interactive	March 30, 2006	47.4%	39.4%
Zogby International	January 27, 2006	50.5%	38.7%
Zogby Interactive	January 19, 2006	51.1%	41.4%
Zogby Interactive	September 13, 2005	51.2%	42.4%

[edit] Other Polls

Source	Date	Casey (D)	Santorum (R)
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC	November 5, 2006	52%	39%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	November 3, 2006	51%	43%
Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer	October 29, 2006	54%	38%
West Chester University	October 27, 2006	50%	39%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC	October 24, 2006	51%	39%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	October 3-8, 2006	46%	41%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC	October 2, 2006	49%	40%
Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer	September 24, 2006	49%	39%
USA Today/Gallup	August 23-27, 2006	56%	38%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)	August 13-16, 2006	51%	37%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	August 6, 2006	45%	39%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	April 26, 2006	46%	38%
Mansfield University	March 7, 2006	45%	31%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call	March 4, 2006	49%	37%

[edit] References

[edit] External links

• Casey's Campaign Website
• Santorum's Campaign Website
• Santorum's United States Senate Website
• Casey's State Treasurer Website
• Santorum Exposed
• Casey on the Issues
• Santorum Blog
• Pennsylvania Senate Race 2006: Data and Analysis from the Washington Post
• Archdiocese candidates' questionnaire