Pennsylvania 6th congressional district election, 2006

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The Pennsylvania 6th congressional district election, 2006 was an election for the United States House of Representatives that took place on November 7, 2006 between 2-term incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach and his Democratic opponent Lois Murphy.

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Gerlach won by 3,000 votes, a winning margin of 1.2%.

Contents

[edit] Candidates

[edit] Republican incumbent

Gerlach first ran for U.S. Congress in 2002 in Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district for an open seat against Democrat Dan Wofford, in a district gerrymandered for Gerlach to win.[1][2] Gerlach won a close, hard-fought campaign, 51.4% to 48.6%. In 2004, Lois Murphy, a lawyer and former head of Ed Rendell's Montgomery county campaign for Governor, challenged Gerlach. The result was even closer than in 2002 — Gerlach won with 51.0% to 49.0% for Murphy.

[edit] Democratic challenger

The Democratic challenger in 2006 was again Lois Murphy, who beat developer Mike Leibowitz in the primary, getting 73% of the votes.[3]

Murphy, born 1963 in Hempstead, New York), graduated from Harvard College and Radcliffe College magna cum laude in 1984, and from Harvard Law School cum laude in 1987. Murphy clerked for a judge in the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit (1987-1989), and later worked as a lawyer for the Justice Department (1989-1990). She has also taught law at Temple University, worked for NARAL Pro-Choice America, and is now a member of a private law firm. She was appointed by Governor Ed Rendell to the Pennsylvania Commission for Women in 2003, and is a trustee of the Women's Law Project.

In 2002, Murphy ran Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell's campaign in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. In 2004, she ran for Congress against Republican Jim Gerlach. She lost by 2%, the closest margin for an incumbent re-elected that year, winning 153,977 votes to Gerlach's 160,348.

[edit] The general campaign

Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district, covering parts of four counties in the western suburbs and further northwest of Philadelphia, was one of the districts where though John Kerry outpolled Bush in the 2004 election, nevertheless elected a Republican to the House. As such, and due to Gerlach's thin margins of victory, it became the target of Democratic strategists. Further helping Democratic prospects is that Gov. Ed Rendell is running for re-election as governor. As he is a former Philadelphia mayor who is well-known and popular across the metropolitan area, Murphy was thought to have had coattails to ride on.

Gerlach had the normal advantages of incumbency, such as franking, PAC donations, and so forth. Gerlach had avoided receiving some typical attacks on Republicans by supporting embryonic Stem cell research. He has a stronger environmental record than many Republican members of Congress, with a lifetime 56% score from League of Conservation Voters and 54% from Defenders of Wildlife.[4]

Murphy had the advantage of better name recognition in the 2006 cycle, as well as more time to fundraise and prepare, and a more favorable environment for Democratic challengers.

A local trash-collection ballot measure in Reading, PA was predicted before hand to have induced higher-than-normal turnout. This was thought to be a likely to help for Murphy.[5]

Murphy gave the Democratic response to President Bush's radio speech on November 4, 2006.[6]

By November 2006, Gerlach was considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House.[7] [8]

[edit] Advertising

There was considerable negative advertising against both candidates.

In July, Gerlach opened his media campaign with a TV ad criticizing President Bush's immigration proposals, in an attempt to distance himself from Bush.[9] [10]

Comcast pulled an ad by the NRCC due to misrepresentation of Murphy's position on body armor.[11] Murphy has stated she supports funding for body armor and that the criticism was over the inclusion in the bill of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which Gerlach had said he opposed. The ad has continued to air on local broadcast stations.

Ads by Gerlach accuse MoveOn (and Murphy for accepting donations from MoveOn) of being anti-semitic and anti-Catholic. MoveOn disputes this strongly. Ads by the NRCC in the 2004 race in support of Gerlach accused MoveOn (and Murphy) of supporting the Taliban, rape of women and public executions. There was considerable criticism of these ads.[12]

[edit] Telemarketing

During the last weeks of the campaign, the 6th district was one of a number of districts nationwide[13][14][15] involved in a controversy over telemarking calls made by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Residents of the district reported receiving calls that start in a way that misleads the voter into thinking the call is in support of Murphy so that the voter will vote against Murphy because of the annoyance of the calls.[16][17] Complaints were filed by 6th district voters with the FCC over these automated phone calls by the NRCC.[18]

[edit] Debates

On October 16, it was reported on WPVI-6 that Gerlach had pulled out of an expected televised debate with Murphy. Apparently this was reversed, since WPVI taped a debate between the candidates on October 27.

On October 21, Gerlach and Murphy had a debate in Malvern sponsored by AARP, attended by about 180 people. The debate was civil, and primarily covered issues of Social Security, healthcare, Iraq, and taxes.[19][20][21]

On October 27, they taped a debate that aired October 29 on WPVI. Iraq was a primary issue in the debate, which continued after the taped portion ended. Other primary topics included Medicare prescription drug benefits, taxes, and security.[22]

[edit] Major endorsements

This does not include general organizational, union or personal endorsements; for those see the candidates' websites. This is primarily local newspapers and broadcasters.

The Allentown Morning Call has endorsed Lois Murphy; in 2004 they endorsed Gerlach.[23]
The Philadelphia Inquirer has endorsed Lois Murphy; in 2004 they also endorsed Murphy.[24]

The Daily News, Reading Eagle, and the West Chester Daily Local have not yet made endorsements in the race for 2006.

In 2004, the Daily Local endorsed Gerlach.

[edit] Polls and non-partisan election analyses

[edit] Analysis

CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, rates the race the highly competitive "No Clear Favorite."

The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates the race "Republican Toss Up"[25]

Larry Sabato's Center for Politics rated this as one of the top fifty most competitive House races in the nation, and was the first one he predicted a turnover in. His current rating is "Leaning Democratic".[26]

[edit] Polls

Source Date Murphy (D) Gerlach (R) Error %
Election
unofficial		 November 7, 2006 49.4% 50.6% ± 0%
Zogby[1] October 29, 2006 49% 44% ± 4.5%
Majority Watch[2]
Detailed crosstabs		 October 26, 2006 51% 46% ± 3.1%
Garin-Hart-Yang[3]
(Democratic)		 October 23, 2006 47% 44% ± 5%
Majority Watch[4] October 10, 2006 52% 46% ± 3.1%
Zogby October 2, 2006 43% 41% ± 4.5%
Keystone Poll[5] September 25, 2006 41% 44% ± 5.2%
Public Opinion Strategies[6]
(Republican)		 September 14, 2006 36% 47% ± 4.9%
Majority Watch[7] August 29, 2006 50% 45% ± 3.1%
Garin-Hart-Yang[8]
(Democratic)		 July 29, 2006 42% 41% ± 4.1%

Majority Watch is a non-partisan poll from RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics. Their polling is done by automated voice-recognition (IVR) of likely voters; typically 1000 respondents which gives a margin of error of about 3%.

Note that partisan polling companies on both sides typically produce results weighted in favor of their candidate.[27]

[edit] Fundraising

As of September 30, 2006, Gerlach had raised $2.9 million compared to Murphy's $2.8 million, and had $1.2 million cash on hand versus Murphy's $900,000. The NRCC spent $1.6 million in support of Gerlach.

As of October 18, the last report before the election from OpenSecrets.org[28] showed Murphy had raised slightly more money than Gerlach ($3.4 million vs $3.1 million), and had outraised Gerlach significantly since September 30. Slightly over half of Gerlach's money came from PACs, while less than 1/6th of Murphy's did. (Incumbents of both parties usually get more money from PACs; the average is about 42%.)[29]

In his three congressional campaigns Gerlach has received $30,000 in contributions from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's political action committee ARMPAC, now disbanded. Following DeLay's indictment on money-laundering charges, Murphy and other Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the contributions or donating them to charity. [30] Gerlach has stated that he would return the contributions if DeLay was convicted of the crimes for which he was indicted. [31]

[edit] Party and outside organization expenditures

Data from PoliticalMoneyLine on independent expenditures reported from September 1 to November 6: [32]

Source Amount For
NRCC $3,869,216 For Gerlach/Against Murphy
National Right To Life $24,401 For Gerlach/Against Murphy
DCCC $3,007,531 For Murphy/Against Gerlach
Emily's List $166,007 For Murphy/Against Gerlach
SEIU COPE $27,099 For Murphy/Against Gerlach

[edit] Results

As of 9:30am on November 8, Gerlach led Murphy 51% to 49% (a 3,001-vote difference) with 100% reporting.[33] All precincts have reported; provisional and absentee votes have yet to be counted, but Lois Murphy has conceded the race as those votes are unlikely to change the result.[34]

Unofficial
Lois Murphy - 115,806 votes - 49.4%
Jim Gerlach - 118,807 votes - 50.6%

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ PA-6 Campaign 2004 USAToday.com, accessed October 18, 2006
  2. ^ Eichel, Larry. GOP Redistricting Gamble Looks Safe. Philadelphia Inquirer. October 16, 2002. Accessed December 30, 2005
  3. ^ Greg Giroux, "http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/pa_house_murphys_easily_win_pr.html", CQPolitics.com, May 17, 2006
  4. ^ http://www.lcv.org/images/client/pdfs/LCV_2006_Scorecard_final.pdf
  5. ^ Nancy Petersen In Sixth District, Reading is Key. Philadelphia Inquirer, September 20, 2006. Accessed October 19, 2006.
  6. ^ Lois Murphy Delivers Democratic Radio Address, November 4, 2006
  7. ^ "washingtonpost.com's Politics Blog", Washington Post, October 21, 2005.
  8. ^ "Rothenberg's 10 Most Endangered House Incumbents", The Rothenberg Political Report, February 21, 2006.
  9. ^ http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/09/04/ap/politics/mainD8JU0A1O0.shtml
  10. ^ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/13/AR2006081300766.html
  11. ^ http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/local/15664014.htm
  12. ^ Phoenixville News, Getting Down and Dirty by Bill Rettew, Jr
  13. ^ 7-News Boston, Republicans end calls Democrats claim were misleading, by the Associated Press. Accessed November 6, 2006.
  14. ^ Boston Globe, How do you like those nasty telephone calls from the campaigns?, by Philip Elliott, Associated Press, November 1, 2006. Accessed November 6, 2006.
  15. ^ ABC News, Dems Claim GOP Launched 'Dirty' Phone Campaign, by Jennifer Duck, November 6, 2006. Accessed November 7, 2006.
  16. ^ Philadelphia Daily News, GOP 'robocall' tactics make me sick by Jill Porter. Accessed November 6, 2006.
  17. ^ New York Times, Repeat Calls Spur a Debate Over Tactics, by Christopher Drew and Carl Hulse, November 7, 2006. Accessed November 6, 2006.
  18. ^ Reading Eagle, 6th District calls prompt complaints to FCC by Kori Walter, accessed November 4, 2006
  19. ^ Philadelphia Inquirer, Civilly, Gerlach and Murphy go over differences by Nancy Petersen, October 22, 2006
  20. ^ Daily Local, Gerlach and Murphy debate a range of issues, October 22, 2006 by Brian Fanelli, accessed October 23, 2006
  21. ^ Associated Press, Gerlach, Murphy spar over war, taxes, health care in Pa. debate
  22. ^ R. Jonathan Tuleya, Murphy, Gerlach clash over Iraq, October 28, 2006; accessed October 29, 2006
  23. ^ Reform-minded Lois Murphy has the edge in 6th Congressional District, accessed October 19, 2006. Morning Call (cached)
  24. ^ Inquirer Endorses Murphy, October 24, 2006
  25. ^ http://cookpolitical.com/
  26. ^ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, Pennsylvania, 6th District
  27. ^ http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2006/Info/polling-faq.html
  28. ^ http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?id=PA06&cycle=2006
  29. ^ http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/pacind.asp
  30. ^ http://www.ourfuture.org/issues_and_campaigns/accountablecongress/delay/money9.cfm
  31. ^ http://www.mainlinelife.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15719007&BRD=1597&PAG=461&dept_id=188818&rfi=8
  32. ^ Political Money Line - 9/1-11/6 (warning: very large)
  33. ^ CNN PA-6 results accessed 9:30am November 8, 2006
  34. ^ Lois Murphy's concession message

[edit] External links

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